(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – There is no question the next legislative election in Hungary is the main opposition party’s to lose, according to a poll by Median. 65 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in this year’s ballot, down one point since November.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – There is no question the next legislative election in Hungary is the main opposition party’s to lose, according to a poll by Median. 65 per cent of respondents—all decided voters—would support the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in this year’s ballot, down one point since November.
The governing Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is a distant second with 19 per cent, followed by the Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) with 10 per cent. Support is much lower for the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) and Politics Can Be Different (LMP).
Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) won 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers.
In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.
In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government.
In March 2008, Gyurcsany stepped down as prime minister, as he faced mounting criticism over his handling of the economy. The MSZP picked finance minister Gordon Bajnai to be the next head of government. In April, Bajnai and the cabinet survived a no-confidence motion in a 199-169 vote.
In June 2009, Fidesz won 14 of 22 seats in the election to the European Parliament. In December, the governing Socialists chose Attila Mesterhazy, a 35-year-old economist, to lead the party into the next election.
On Feb. 4, while visiting Germany, Orban said: "I have told German investors to be patient and trustful and not to abandon Hungary. The business and public atmosphere will change greatly in Hungary and will move towards success, I hope, from April."
The next election in Hungary is scheduled for Apr. 11 and Apr. 25. The country’s electoral system calls for a first round, where a shortlist of all the candidates who receive more than 15 per cent of the vote is created. In the second round, the actual winner is chosen from these candidates. For the first round to be valid, more than 50 per cent of registered voters must take part. In the second round, the threshold is reduced to 25 per cent.
Polling Data
If an election were held today, what party would you support? (Decided Voters)
|
|
Jan. 2010 |
Nov. 2009 |
Oct. 2009 |
|
Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) |
65% |
66% |
65% |
|
Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) |
19% |
19% |
18% |
|
Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) |
10% |
10% |
12% |
|
Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) |
3% |
2% |
2% |
|
Politics Can Be Different (LMP) |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) |
– |
1% |
1% |
Source: Median
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Hungarian adults, conducted from Jan. 2 to Jan. 8, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
