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(01/31/10) -

Americans Expect Court to Reject Gay Marriage

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Many Americans believe their Supreme Court will ultimately ban same-sex marriage, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 52 per cent of respondents expect a decision that would define marriage federally as between a man and a woman.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Many Americans believe their Supreme Court will ultimately ban same-sex marriage, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 52 per cent of respondents expect a decision that would define marriage federally as between a man and a woman.

In addition, 58 per cent of respondents say they would prefer a ruling that defines marriage federally as between a man and a woman.

In 2004, marriage certificates were issued to same-sex couples by local governments in the states of California, Oregon, New Mexico and New York. In May 2004, the state of Massachusetts allowed gay and lesbian partners to apply for marriage licenses. Same-sex marriage is also legal in Connecticut, Iowa, Vermont and New Hampshire.

Civil union and domestic partnership laws in California, the District of Columbia, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon and Washington, grant same-sex couples nearly all state-level rights and obligations of marriage—in areas such as inheritance, income tax, insurance and hospital visitation. Other forms of domestic partnership exist in Colorado, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland and Wisconsin. There are more than 1,000 federal-level rights of marriage that cannot be granted by states.

In May 2008, California’s Supreme Court overturned a ban on same-sex marriage in a 4-3 decision, effectively allowing full marriage rights to homosexual partners. In November 2008, 52.5 per cent of voters in California endorsed Proposition 8, which seeks to amend the state Constitution to define marriage as only between a man and a woman.

A U.S. District Court is currently reviewing the constitutional validity of California’s Proposition 8. The case was filed after Kristin Perry and Sandra Steir were denied a marriage license in the Alameda County in May 2009, because they are both women. It is expected that the case will eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court, which may have to rule about the validity of same-sex marriage at the federal level.

Attorney David Boies—who is representing Perry—expressed confidence in a positive outcome, declaring, "We came in to this trial stating we would prove three things: that marriage is a fundamental right; that denying same-sex marriage hurts gays and lesbians and their children; and that there is no benefit to society in denying gays from marrying."

Same-sex marriage is currently legal in the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Canada, South Africa, Norway and Sweden. At least 20 countries offer some form of legal recognition to same-sex unions.

Polling Data

As you may know, a U.S. District Court is reviewing the constitutional validity of California’s Proposition 8, which restored the definition of marriage in California as being between a man and a woman. It is expected that the case will eventually reach the U.S. Supreme Court, which may end up ruling about the validity of same-sex marriage at the federal level. If this case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, what do you expect the outcome to be? If this case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, what do you expect the outcome to be?

A ruling that defines marriage federally as between a man and a woman

52%

A ruling that defines marriage federally as between two people

28%

Not sure

19%

And, if this case reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, what would you prefer the outcome to be?

A ruling that defines marriage federally as between a man and a woman

58%

A ruling that defines marriage federally as between two people

34%

Not sure

8%

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Jan. 12 and Jan. 13, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Complete Poll (PDF)