(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Canada’s governing Conservative party remains ahead of a surging Liberal opposition, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 36 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next federal election, down two points since mid-November.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Canada’s governing Conservative party remains ahead of a surging Liberal opposition, according to a poll by Angus Reid Public Opinion. 36 per cent of respondents would support the Tories in the next federal election, down two points since mid-November.
The Liberal party is second with 29 per cent—up six points in three weeks—followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 16 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent, and the Green party with six per cent.
Canadians renewed the House of Commons in October 2008. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 37.6 per cent of the vote, and secured 143 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper assembled a minority administration. The Tories also earned a minority mandate after the 2006 election, ending more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December, Michael Ignatieff took over as Liberal leader, replacing Stéphane Dion.
On Sept. 1, Ignatieff declared that the Liberals will no longer support the Conservative minority administration in the House of Commons.
The next election to the House of Commons is tentatively scheduled for Oct. 15, 2012. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion. In order to trigger an election, all three opposition parties in the House of Commons—Liberals, NDP and Bloc—would have to defeat the government in a no-confidence motion.
Last month, Canadian intelligence officer and diplomat Richard Colvin testified to a parliamentary committee about a series of memos he wrote between May 2006 and October 2007 warning that Afghan detainees captured by Canadians and turned over to Afghan authorities were being tortured in Afghani prisons. Colvin testified that those memos were ignored until newspaper reports brought the matter into the public eye. Canadian government ministers have dismissed Colvin’s claims as "not credible" and "entirely suspect."
On Dec. 9, NDP leader Jack Layton criticized the government’s handling of the Afghan detainee issue, declaring, "The chief of defence staff just contradicted everything they’ve been saying in this House time and time again. The minister claimed there was no proof of abuse. He was wrong and he should take responsibility and resign, and if not, the prime minister should demand it today."
Polling Data
If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?
|
|
Dec. 10 |
Nov. 16 |
Oct. 24 |
Oct. 14 |
|
Conservative |
36% |
38% |
40% |
41% |
|
Liberal |
29% |
23% |
26% |
27% |
|
New Democratic Party |
16% |
17% |
17% |
16% |
|
Bloc Québécois |
11% |
11% |
9% |
8% |
|
Green |
6% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
|
Other |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,000 Canadian adults, conducted on Dec. 9 and Dec. 10, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
