(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Porfirio Lobo Sosa is the frontrunner in the race to become the next president of Honduras, according to a poll by CID-Gallup published in La Prensa. 37 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the conservative National Party (PN) in this month’s ballot, down five points since July.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Porfirio Lobo Sosa is the frontrunner in the race to become the next president of Honduras, according to a poll by CID-Gallup published in La Prensa. 37 per cent of respondents would vote for the candidate of the conservative National Party (PN) in this month’s ballot, down five points since July.
Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party (PL) is second with 21 per cent—down 16 points since July—followed by César Ham of the Democratic Unification Party (PUD) with three per cent, Bernard Martínez of the Party for Innovation and Unity – Social-Democracy (PINU) with two per cent, and Felicito Ávila of the Christian Democratic Party (PDCH) also with two per cent. More than a third of respondents remain undecided.
In November 2005, PL candidate Manuel Zelaya won the presidential election with 49.9 per cent of all cast ballots, defeating Lobo Sosa of the PN. Less than 69,000 votes separated the two contenders. Zelaya took office in January 2006.
On Jun. 28, a group of military officers stormed into Zelaya’s residence and took him to the airport, where he was flown to Costa Rica.
On that same day, Hondurans were supposed to vote in a non-binding referendum proposed by the president. Voters were to decide whether they should be consulted in an election scheduled for November on the potential creation of a Constituent Assembly to re-write the Constitution.
The Honduran Supreme Court had deemed the plebiscite illegal, but the president had decided to go ahead with the vote. Opponents claimed that Zelaya planned to ultimately alter the Constitution in order to scrap presidential term limits and instate a "socialist" model. But Zelaya denied this, saying that the national frame of laws needed an update and that changes would only happen after the end of his term—so he could not be really planning to run for re-election.
Micheletti—the Congress leader and also a PL member—was appointed interim president that same day. The Supreme Court had issued a secret arrest warrant for Zelaya on Jun. 26.
Costa Rican president and former Nobel Peace Prize laureate Óscar Arias, the Organization of American States (OAS), and the United States government helped broker a deal between Zelaya and Micheletti.
On Oct. 30, the Honduran Congress approved a deal that would see Zelaya restored into power for the remainder of his term. A general election, both legislative and presidential, scheduled for Nov. 29 will still take place. The implementation of the deal has yet to take place.
On that day, U.S. assistant state secretary Thomas Shannon said that the Central American country’s lawmakers had no choice but to support the proposed deal, adding, "There are a variety of moving parts to this agreement that may still prove challenging in the implementation."
Polling Data
Which candidate would you vote for in the next presidential election?
|
|
Oct. 2009
|
Jul. 2009
|
|
Porfirio Lobo Sosa (PN)
|
37%
|
42%
|
|
Elvin Santos (PL)
|
21%
|
37%
|
|
César Ham (PUD)
|
3%
|
n.a.
|
|
Bernard Martínez (PINU)
|
2%
|
n.a.
|
|
Felícito Ávila (DC)
|
2%
|
n.a.
|
|
Other / Undecided
|
35%
|
21%
|
Source: CID-Gallup / La Prensa
Methodology: Interviews to 1,420 Honduran adults, conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 19, 2009. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
