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can_oct30
(10/30/09) -

Conservatives Keep 14-Point Lead in Canada

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Conservative party remains ahead of its rivals in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Conservative party remains ahead of its rivals in Canada, according to a poll by Angus Reid Strategies released by the Toronto Star. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the Tories in the next election to the House of Commons.

The Liberal party is second with 26 per cent, followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17 per cent, the Bloc Québécois with nine per cent, and the Green party with seven per cent.

Canadians renewed the House of Commons in October 2008. The Conservative party—led by Stephen Harper—received 37.6 per cent of the vote, and secured 143 seats in the 308-member lower house. Harper assembled a minority administration. The Tories also earned a minority mandate after the 2006 election, ending more than 12 years of government by the Liberal party. In December, Michael Ignatieff took over as Liberal leader, replacing Stéphane Dion.

In late January, Canadian finance minister Jim Flaherty presented the federal budget, which predicts a $70 billion U.S. budget deficit over the next five years, and includes a $33 billion U.S. economic stimulus package, as well as tax relief aimed at the lower and middle class.

On Sept. 1, Ignatieff declared that the Liberals will no longer support the Conservative minority administration in the House of Commons.

The next election to the House of Commons is tentatively scheduled for Oct. 15, 2012. Sitting prime ministers can dissolve Parliament and call an early ballot at their discretion. In order to trigger an election, all three opposition parties in the House of Commons—Liberals, NDP and Bloc—would have to defeat the government in a no-confidence motion.

On Oct. 27, Flaherty presented a plan to improve the pension plans of federally-regulated companies, declaring, "These reforms will provide enhanced benefit security for workers and retirees while allowing pension plan sponsors to better manage their funding obligations as part of their overall business operations."

NDP leader Jack Layton discussed the importance of the plan, saying, "Unfortunately, it only applies to a very small percentage of the pensions that are out there, but it’s a start that we’ve been calling for."

Polling Data

If a federal election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?

 

Oct. 24

Oct. 14

Sept. 30

Sept. 24

Conservative

40%

41%

37%

37%

Liberal

26%

27%

27%

29%

New Democratic Party

17%

16%

17%

16%

Bloc Québécois

9%

8%

11%

9%

Green

7%

6%

6%

8%

Other

2%

1%

1%

1%

Source: Angus Reid Strategies / Toronto Star
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,001 Canadian adults, conducted on Oct. 23 and Oct. 24, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Complete Poll (PDF)