(07/29/09) -

Piñera Would Beat Frei in Chilean Election

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Conservative candidate Sebastián Piñera would defeat his main opponent in both the first and second rounds of this year’s presidential election in Chile, according to a poll by Equipos MORI. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for Piñera of the centre-right Alliance for Chile (APC) in the December ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Conservative candidate Sebastián Piñera would defeat his main opponent in both the first and second rounds of this year’s presidential election in Chile, according to a poll by Equipos MORI. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for Piñera of the centre-right Alliance for Chile (APC) in the December ballot.

Former president Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle of the centre-left Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD) is a distant second with 21 per cent, followed by independent candidate Marco Enríquez-Ominami—a former Socialist Party (PS) member—with 13 per cent. Support is lower for senator Alejandro Navarro of the Broad Social Movement (MAS), independent lawmaker and former Senate president Adolfo Zaldívar, and left-wing candidate Jorge Arrate. 19 per cent of respondents remain undecided.

In an eventual run-off, Piñera holds a 16-point lead over Frei.

The CPD’s Michelle Bachelet—a former defence minister—was elected in a January 2006 run-off with 53.49 per cent of all cast ballots. Piñera was second with 46.51 per cent.

The CPD—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—has not lost a single presidential election in Chile since the return of democracy after the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet in March 1990. The centre-right APC encompasses Piñera’s National Renewal (RN) and the Independent Democratic Union (UDI).

In October 2008, Piñera’s RN achieved significant victories in local elections across the country. For the first time, centre-right parties have more elected mayors than centre-left organizations.

Frei served as Chile’s president from March 1994 to March 2000. Enríquez-Ominami recently split from the Socialists to run as an independent. He is an elected deputy in the lower house. His father, the late Miguel Enríquez Espinosa, was the founder and secretary general of the Revolutionary Left Movement (MIR), and was assassinated by the Pinochet regime when Ominami was three months old.

Piñera has built his career on the premise that he represents a new type of conservatism that is no longer tied to the Pinochet era. Piñera’s brother, José, served as Pinochet’s labour minister and was deemed a close advisor. On Jul. 2, the presidential candidate said that he "always" opposed the dictatorship.

Bachelet is ineligible for a consecutive term in office. The first round of Chile’s presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11.

Polling Data

If the presidential election took place this Sunday, who would you vote for?

Which of these two candidates would you vote for in the second round of the presidential election?

Source: Equipos MORI
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Chilean adults, conducted from Jun. 27 to Jul. 9, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.