(07/06/09) -

Fatah Would Crush Hamas in Palestinian Ballot

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Fatah movement would get roughly twice the vote share of its opponent Hamas in the next election to the Palestinian Legislative Council, according to a poll by the Jerusalem Media & Communications Center. 38.5 per cent of respondents would support Fatah in the next election, while 18.8 per cent would vote for Hamas.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Fatah movement would get roughly twice the vote share of its opponent Hamas in the next election to the Palestinian Legislative Council, according to a poll by the Jerusalem Media & Communications Center. 38.5 per cent of respondents would support Fatah in the next election, while 18.8 per cent would vote for Hamas.

The Popular Front is third with 5.6 per cent, followed by Islamic Jihad with 2.3 per cent, National Initiative with 2.2 per cent, Democratic Front with one per cent, the Palestinian People’s Party with 0.8 per cent, and the Palestine Democratic Union (FIDA) with 0.2 per cent. More than a quarter of respondents are undecided.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas recently extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.

Both factions had agreed to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2010, but the actual timing of the new ballot is uncertain. On May 19, Abbas swore in a new government that does not include members of Hamas. Fayyad remained in his post as prime minister.

Fatah and Hamas leaders are currently engaged in reconciliation talks sponsored by the government of Egypt.

On Jun. 30, Azzam al-Ahmad, head of Fatah’s parliamentary group, expressed his optimism on unity talks with Hamas, saying that there is "a clear easing of tensions in the talks" and that "the signing of [an] accord is now within reach."

Polling Data

If Palestinian Legislative Council elections were to take place today, which party would you vote for?

Source: Jerusalem Media & Communications Center
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,199 adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Jun. 20 to Jun. 24, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.