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hun_jul04
(07/06/09) -

No Question, Fidesz Would Win in Hungary

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The majority of decided voters in Hungary will throw their support behind the main opposition party in the next election, according to a poll by Szazadveg-Forsense. 63 per cent of respondents would vote for the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next legislative ballot, down five points since February.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The majority of decided voters in Hungary will throw their support behind the main opposition party in the next election, according to a poll by Szazadveg-Forsense. 63 per cent of respondents would vote for the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) in the next legislative ballot, down five points since February.

The ruling Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is far behind with 17 per cent—down four points in four months—followed by the Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) with 10 per cent, Politics Can Be Different (LMP) and the Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF) both with four per cent, and the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ) with only one per cent.

Hungarian voters renewed their National Assembly in April 2006. The MSZP and the SZDSZ secured 210 of the legislative branch’s 386 seats, securing a full term for Socialist prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. Fidesz, led by Viktor Orban, elected 164 lawmakers. In June 2006, Gyurcsany introduced a fiscal "austerity package" of state subsidy reductions and tax increases, aimed at lowering the country’s fiscal deficit.

In September 2006, Gyurcsany was criticized after Hungary’s state radio aired portions of an audiotape—which had been recorded in May—in which he told members of the MSZP that his administration "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy in order to win re-election. The prime minister’s words sparked a two-week riot that threatened to end his government.

In March 2008, Gyurcsany stepped down as prime minister, as he faced mounting criticism over his handling of the economy. The MSZP picked finance minister Gordon Bajnai to be the next head of government. In April, Bajnai and the cabinet survived a no-confidence motion in a 199-169 vote.

On Jun. 26, Banjai said that all economic policies proposed by Fidesz are unrealistic, declaring, "The country would become impossible to finance. I don’t think they are thinking about this seriously—it’s just a kind of campaign message."

Polling Data

What party would you support in the next general election? (Decided Voters)

 

Jun. 2009

Feb. 2009

Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz)

63%

68%

Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)

17%

21%

Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik)

10%

3%

Politics Can Be Different (LMP)

4%

n.a.

Hungarian Democratic Forum (MDF)

4%

4%

Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ)

1%

2%

Source: Szazadveg-Forsense
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,001 Hungarian adults, conducted from Jun. 8 to Jun. 17, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.