(04/04/09) -

President Uribe a Strong Candidate in Colombia

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Colombian president Álvaro Uribe would command a high level of public support if he were to run for a third consecutive term in office, according to a poll by Datexco published in Semana. 44 per cent of respondents would vote for Uribe in the 2010 ballot.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Colombian president Álvaro Uribe would command a high level of public support if he were to run for a third consecutive term in office, according to a poll by Datexco published in Semana. 44 per cent of respondents would vote for Uribe in the 2010 ballot.

Opposition leftist Democratic Independent Pole (PDI) senior member Carlos Gaviria is far behind with 5.5 per cent, followed by current Colombian ambassador to Britain Noemí Sanín with 5.4 per cent, and former Medellín mayor Sergio Fajardo with 5.3 per cent. Support is lower for current agriculture minister Andrés Felipe Arias, incumbent defence minister Juan Manuel Santos, Liberal Party (PL) senior member Piedad Córdoba, former Bogotá mayor and PDI member Lucho Garzón, and other minor contenders.

Without Uribe as a candidate, Santos is first with a meager 12.3 per cent, followed by Arias with 10.4 per cent, Sanín with 10.1 per cent, Gaviria with 8.3 per cent, Fajardo with 7.1 per cent, and Radical Change (CR) party leader Germán Vargas Lleras with 5.6 per cent.

Uribe has been Colombia’s president since August 2002. In the May 2006 election, he won a new four-year term with 62.2 per cent of all cast ballots. He was able to run again after pro-Uribe lawmakers in the House of Representatives and the Constitutional Court officially sanctioned a plan to allow immediate presidential re-election. After issuing its ruling, the court warned that the clause was not valid for the unlimited re-election of the head of state. Uribe would require a new constitutional amendment to run again.

Uribe has been commended for improving the economy and for his security policies, especially his hard stand against the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a radical left-wing armed group. However, his administration is currently under great strain. Seventy-one lawmakers—85 per cent of whom are Uribe supporters—are being investigated for alleged ties with right-wing, illegal paramilitary armies; 31 of them are either detained or already serving time in jail. The accusations range from receiving the backing of war lords for electoral benefits, to directly participating in select killings and massacres for political or economic purposes. Uribe’s first cousin and close political ally, Mario Uribe, is one of the lawmakers tied to the scandal.

A group of Uribe supporters has gathered enough signatures to call a nationwide referendum on whether the current president should be allowed to run for re-election again in 2014. Congress is currently debating whether the terms of the proposal should be changed so that Uribe can run in 2010. The referendum proposal must be approved by legislators, and then sanctioned by the Constitutional Court. The president himself has not clearly stated whether he wants to run for office again.

On Mar. 28, lower house speaker Germán Varón warned that he is against the Senate changing the terms of the referendum proposal so that Uribe can run in 2010 instead of 2014, declaring, "I disagree with [the change] (…). We maintain that we must approve the original text of the referendum. The Senate cannot re-interpret or change the norm that was backed by five million people."

Polling Data

Which of these candidates would you vote for in the next presidential election? (with Uribe as a candidate)

Which of these candidates would you vote for in the next presidential election? (without Uribe as a candidate)

Source: Datexco / Semana
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 700 Colombian adults in 13 cities, conducted from Mar. 24 to Mar. 26, 2009. Margin of error is 3.7 per cent.