(01/22/09) -

Likud, Kadima Fight for Top Spot in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The opposition Likud and the governing Kadima are the most popular parties in Israel, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally shows Likud would secure 28 mandates in the Knesset, followed by Kadima with 26 seats.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The opposition Likud and the governing Kadima are the most popular parties in Israel, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally shows Likud would secure 28 mandates in the Knesset, followed by Kadima with 26 seats.

Labour is third with 17 mandates, followed by Israel Our Home with 14 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, Yahadut Hatorah, Jewish Home, and National Union. The Arab parties would get 10 seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.

On Jan. 18, Israel declared a unilateral ceasefire to a three-week long military operation in the Gaza Strip. The mission sought to stop the launching of Qassam rockets into Israeli territory by Hamas, the Islamic militant and political organization that has been in control of the territory since June 2007. More than 1,300 people died on the Palestinian side and more than 5,000 were wounded. Women and children account for more than a third of the Palestinian fatalities, and almost half of the injuries. The Israeli death toll is tabled at 13 people.

Yesterday, Barak claimed victory, declaring, "We achieved a significant boost to our deterrence against Hamas and at the same time boosted our deterrence throughout the entire region. (…) We’re not happy about the destruction in the Gaza Strip and we regret the loss of civilian lives. Hamas determined the battlefield and its operatives were the targets for [Israeli Defence Forces] attacks. Their operations from within densely populated areas, schools, hospitals and mosques endangered the residents of Gaza."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 800 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 15, 2009. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.