(01/21/09) -

Likud Still Edging Kadima in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The centre-right Likud party is holding on to the top spot in Israel’s legislative race, according to a poll by Dialog released by Haaretz. A prospective tally of seats shows Likud in first place with 29 mandates in the Knesset, down three since late December.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The centre-right Likud party is holding on to the top spot in Israel’s legislative race, according to a poll by Dialog released by Haaretz. A prospective tally of seats shows Likud in first place with 29 mandates in the Knesset, down three since late December.

The governing Kadima is second with 25 seats, followed by Labour with 16 mandates, Israel Our Home with 12 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, Yahadut Hatorah, Jewish Home, National Union and the Green Party. The Arab parties would get eight seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.

Yesterday, Netanyahu discussed the inauguration of United States president Barack Obama, saying, "I took away the impression that Barack Obama understood our distress very well as well as the cruelty of the enemies we face. (…) He also understands the dangers that Iranian nuclear armaments would represent."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Dialog / Haaretz
Methodology: Interviews with 561 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 13, 2009. Margin of error is 5 per cent.