(01/20/09) -

Likud Loses Steam As Israeli Ballot Looms

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Israel’s centre-right Likud party continues to lead but has clearly lost momentum as a legislative ballot draws closer, according to a poll by Shvakim Panorama released by Israel Radio. A prospective tally of seats shows Likud would get 28 mandates in the Knesset in the February poll, down six since December.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Israel’s centre-right Likud party continues to lead but has clearly lost momentum as a legislative ballot draws closer, according to a poll by Shvakim Panorama released by Israel Radio. A prospective tally of seats shows Likud would get 28 mandates in the Knesset in the February poll, down six since December.

The governing Kadima is second with 21 seats, followed by Labour with 15 mandates, Israel Our Home also with 15 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 10 mandates. Support is lower for Yahadut Hatorah, Vitality-Together, Jewish Home, National Union and the Green Party. The Arab parties would get 10 seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.

On Jan. 18, Israel declared a unilateral ceasefire to a three-week long military operation in the Gaza Strip. The mission sought to stop the launching of Qassam rockets into Israeli territory by Hamas, the Islamic militant and political organization that has been in control of the territory since June 2007. More than 1,300 people died on the Palestinian side and more than 5,000 were wounded. Women and children account for more than a third of the Palestinian fatalities, and almost half of the injuries. The Israeli death toll is tabled at 13 people.

On Jan. 16, Philip Wilcox—a former senior U.S. diplomat and president of the Foundation of Middle East Peace—stated that the timing of Israel’s offensive in Gaza was related to the upcoming elections, saying, "One of the objectives of Barak, Livni and Olmert, and thus the Kadima-Labour coalition, was to demonstrate they are strong and willing to use force in the face of this Hamas rocket fire."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Shvakim Panorama / Israel Radio
Methodology: Interviews with 510 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 14, 2009. No margin of error was provided.