(01/18/09) -

Close Electoral Race Continues in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Next month’s election in Israel could be very close, according to a poll by Maagar Mochot released by Channel 2. A prospective tally shows the centre-right Likud party in first place with 28 seats, down four since early January.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Next month’s election in Israel could be very close, according to a poll by Maagar Mochot released by Channel 2. A prospective tally shows the centre-right Likud party in first place with 28 seats, down four since early January.

The governing Kadima is a close second with 26 seats, followed by Labour with 16 mandates, Israel Our Home with 14 seats, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 10 mandates. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, Yahadut Hatorah, Jewish Home, and National Union. The Arab parties would get 10 seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.

On Jan. 14, Netanyahu discussed the transition in the United States, saying, "I have no doubt that the terrorists and their patrons—or the terrorist states and their proxies—will continuously challenge the leadership of the United States. But, from my two conversations with president-elect [Barack] Obama, I could see that he understood this threat. He said that he was absolutely committed to making sure that Iran would not acquire nuclear weapons. And I think this was very important. He was also equally adamant about resisting terrorism."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Maagar Mochot / Channel 2
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 506 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 13, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.