(01/07/09) -

Likud First, Baraks Labour Surges in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The rightist Likud party remains ahead in Israel but support for the Labour party has improved significantly, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. A prospective tally shows that Likud would secure 32 seats in next month’s election to the Knesset, followed by the governing Kadima with 27 mandates.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The rightist Likud party remains ahead in Israel but support for the Labour party has improved significantly, according to a poll by Dialog published in Haaretz. A prospective tally shows that Likud would secure 32 seats in next month’s election to the Knesset, followed by the governing Kadima with 27 mandates.

The Labour party is third with 16 seats—up six since mid-November—followed by Israel Our Home with 11 mandates and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.

The Islamic Jihad organization launched Qassam rockets into Israel from Gaza almost daily since Hamas took control of the territory in June 2007. Israel holds Hamas responsible for the attacks for allowing the Islamic Jihad and other groups to act against Israel. In June 2008, a six-month calm agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas.

On Dec. 27, Israel launched a series of aerial attacks against what it deems "Hamas targets" in the Gaza Strip, including the Al Aqsa television station and the Islamic University of Gaza. On Jan. 3, Israeli ground troops entered Gaza. According to health officials in Gaza, at least 524 people have died during the military operation and close to 2,000 have been wounded.

On Jan. 5, Labour leader and Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak discussed the current state of affairs, saying, "Hamas has so far sustained a very heavy blow from us, but we have yet to achieve our objective and therefore the operation continues. The fundamental objective is to change the reality of security for [southern Israel]. We are striving for a new reality in which there won’t be activity from Gaza against Israeli civilians or our soldiers."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Dialog / Haaretz
Methodology: Interviews with 472 Israeli adults, conducted on Dec. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 5 per cent.