(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The African National Congress (ANC) remained dominant in South Africa in October, according to a poll by Ipsos Markinor. 62.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the ANC in a national election.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The African National Congress (ANC) remained dominant in South Africa in October, according to a poll by Ipsos Markinor. 62.5 per cent of respondents would vote for the ANC in a national election.
The Democratic Alliance (DA) is a distant second with 11.2 per cent, followed by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) with 2.9 per cent, the Independent Democrats (ID) with 1.7 per cent, the United Democratic Movement (UDM) with 1.6 per cent, and the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) with 1.1 per cent.
Thabo Mbeki replaced Nelson Mandela as South Africa’s president after the 1999 general election, where the ANC received 66.4 per cent of the vote. Mbeki led the ANC to a second majority government in April 2004, with 69.68 per cent of all cast ballots and 279 lawmakers in the 400-seat National Assembly.
In December 2007, Jacob Zuma defeated Mbeki in an internal leadership ballot and became the new leader of the ANC. In January, Zuma was named as the ANC’s presidential candidate.
In September 2008, a High Court judge dismissed corruption charges against Zuma and pointed out that the government attempted to influence the prosecution of the accused. On Sept. 21, following the country’s ruling favouring Zuma, Mbeki tendered his resignation as president.
On Sept. 24, lawmakers elected ANC deputy leader Kgalema Motlanthe—a former labour leader and former member of the military wing of the party—to replace Mbeki as president. Motlanthe is a close Zuma ally. Zuma is not currently a member of the National Assembly, so he is unable to act as president.
On Nov. 1, close to 6,500 dissident members of the ANC met in Johannesburg and agreed on the creation of the Congress of the People (COPE), a new political party that will challenge the ANC in next year’s election. COPE includes many supporters of Mbeki who have criticized the ANC for being a "corrupt" and "authoritarian" organization. Former ANC members Mosiuoa Lekota, Mbhazima Shilowa and Mluleki George are COPE’s leaders.
On Dec. 19, Zuma discussed the upcoming election, saying, "Now that COPE is an opposition to the ruling party, we should adopt a style that is adopted in terms of the relations between all parties—respect to each other. (…) There is not even a breakaway [from the ANC to COPE]. They resigned from the party as individuals."
Polling Data
If there were national elections tomorrow, which political party or organization would you vote for?
|
African National Congress (ANC) |
62.5% |
|
Democratic Alliance (DA) |
11.2% |
|
Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) |
2.9% |
|
Independent Democrats (ID) |
1.7% |
|
United Democratic Movement (UDM) |
1.6% |
|
African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) |
1.1% |
|
Pan Africanist Congress of Azania (PAC) |
0.5% |
|
Freedom Front Plus – Vryheidsfront Plus (VF Plus) |
0.3% |
|
South African Communist Party (SACP) |
0.1% |
|
Other party |
1.0% |
|
Don’t know / Unsure |
7.5% |
|
Would not vote / Would spoil ballot |
7.0% |
|
Refused |
2.6% |
Source: Ipsos Markinor
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 3,500 South African adults, conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
