(11/02/08) -

U.S. 2008: Obama 49.9%, McCain 43.5%

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Almost half of American voters would cast a ballot for Democrat Barack Obama in the United States presidential election, according to a review of 11 voting intention surveys conducted over the past six days. 49.9 per cent of voters would back the Illinois senator in this week’s election, while 43.5 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Almost half of American voters would cast a ballot for Democrat Barack Obama in the United States presidential election, according to a review of 11 voting intention surveys conducted over the past six days. 49.9 per cent of voters would back the Illinois senator in this week’s election, while 43.5 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

Obama is ahead of McCain in all of the surveys, and reaches the 50 per cent mark in six of them. More than six per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates. Since the last ARGM Poll Average, Obama remains stable, while McCain has dropped 0.6 points.

Yesterday in Virginia, McCain discussed fiscal matters, saying, "[Obama and I] both disagree with President Bush on economic policy. The difference is he thinks taxes have been too low, and I think that spending has been too high." Obama, campaigning in Nevada, vowed to end divisive politics "once and for all."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

National Vote – 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)

(11) Rasmussen Reports – Telephone interviews with 3,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 28 to Oct. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(10) Gallup – Telephone interviews with 2,516 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 29 to Oct. 31 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent
(9) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN – Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 29 to Oct. 31, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
(8) TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence / Investor’s Business Daily – Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(7) Battleground / Lake Research Partners / The Tarrance Group – Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(6) Diageo / Hotline – Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(5) Research 2000 – Telephone interviews with 1,100 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(4) TNS / ABC News / Washington Post – Telephone interviews with 1,300 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 27 to Oct. 30, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
(3) Marist College – Telephone interviews with 543 likely American voters, conducted on Oct. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
(2) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News – Telephone interviews with 924 likely American voters, conducted on Oct. 28 and Oct. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(1) CBS News / New York Times – Telephone interviews with 1,439 American adults, conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 29, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.