(10/30/08) -

Kadima Moves Ahead of Likud in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Israel’s governing Kadima has surpassed the Likud party, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows that Kadima would secure 31 seats in the next election to the Knesset, up six since mid-September.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Israel’s governing Kadima has surpassed the Likud party, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally of seats shows that Kadima would secure 31 seats in the next election to the Knesset, up six since mid-September.

Likud is second with 29 mandates, followed by Labour and Israel Our Home with 11 seats each, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with eight mandates. Support is lower for the coalition of National Union and the National Religious Party, Together, United Torah Judaism, and the Green Party.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election is expected to take place on Jan. 27, Feb. 3, or Feb. 10, 2009.

On Oct. 27, Israeli president Shimon Peres said a new Knesset election seems inevitable, adding, "After having consulted with representatives of all parliamentary factions I would like to inform you that I see no possibility of forming a government. (…) In the coming days Israel will enter a crucial electoral period."

Also on Oct. 27, Livni commented on the exact timing of the ballot, saying, "We have been in a period of uncertainty for several months and therefore the elections should take place as soon as possible."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 500 Israeli adults, conducted on Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.