(10/30/08) -

U.S. 2008: Obama 49.8%, McCain 44.1%

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama remains ahead in the United States presidential race, according to a review of 11 voting intention surveys conducted over the past five days. 49.8 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator in next week’s election, while 44.1 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama remains ahead in the United States presidential race, according to a review of 11 voting intention surveys conducted over the past five days. 49.8 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator in next week’s election, while 44.1 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

Obama is ahead of McCain in all of the surveys, and reaches the 50 per cent mark in six of them. More than six per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates. Obama has lost 0.9 points since the last ARGM Poll Average, while McCain has gained 1.5 points. 

Yesterday, McCain discussed the effect of racism in the election, saying, "Look, there’s racism in America—we all know that. But I am totally convinced that 99 and forty-four-one-hundredths per cent of Americans are going to make the decision based on who is best to lead this country. These are one of the most difficult times in our history. (…) I have faith in the American people that they will make the judgment for the best of reasons."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

National Vote – 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)

(11) Rasmussen Reports – Telephone interviews with 3,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(10) Gallup – Telephone interviews with 2,435 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent
(9) Zogby International / Reuters / C-SPAN – Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 2.8 per cent.
(8) TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence / Investor’s Business Daily – Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 24 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(7) Battleground / Lake Research Partners / The Tarrance Group – Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted on Oct. 22, Oct. 23, Oct. 26, Oct. 27 and Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(6) Diageo / Hotline – Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(5) Research 2000 – Telephone interviews with 1,100 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 26 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(4) TNS / ABC News / Washington Post – Telephone interviews with 1,300 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 28, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
(3) American Research Group – Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 25 to Oct. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(2) Ipsos / McClatchy Newspapers – Telephone interviews with 831 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 27, 2008. Margin of error is 3.4 per cent.
(1) Pew Research Center for the People & the Press – Telephone interviews with 1,198 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 23 to Oct. 26, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.