(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama retains an eight-point lead in the United States presidential race, according to a review of 14 voting intention surveys conducted over the past two weeks. 50.7 per cent of voters would back the Illinois senator in the election, while 42.6 per cent would support Arizona senator John McCain.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama retains an eight-point lead in the United States presidential race, according to a review of 14 voting intention surveys conducted over the past two weeks. 50.7 per cent of voters would back the Illinois senator in the election, while 42.6 per cent would support Arizona senator John McCain.
Obama is ahead of McCain in all of the surveys, and reaches the 50 per cent mark in 11 of them. Almost seven per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates. The numbers are remarkably similar to the last ARGM Poll Average.
On Oct. 26, McCain discussed the campaign, saying, "Polls have consistently shown me much further behind than we actually are. It all depends on the voter turnout. (…) We’re doing fine. We have closed in the last week."
In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.
Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.
Polling Data
National Vote – 2008 U.S. Presidential Election
Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)
|
McCain |
Obama |
Other / Not sure |
|
|
ARGM Poll Average |
42.6% |
50.7% |
6.7% |
|
(14) Rasmussen Reports |
44% |
52% |
4% |
|
(13) Gallup |
44% |
51% |
5% |
|
(12) PSRAI / Newsweek |
41% |
53% |
6% |
|
(11) GQRR / Democracy Corps |
43% |
52% |
5% |
|
(10) Big Ten Universities |
43% |
52% |
5% |
|
(9) CBS News / New York Times |
39% |
52% |
9% |
|
(8) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News |
40% |
49% |
10% |
|
(7) American Research Group |
45% |
49% |
6% |
|
(6) Hart/Newhouse / WSJ / NBC |
42% |
52% |
6% |
|
(5) GfK Roper / AP |
43% |
44% |
13% |
|
(4) Ipsos / McClatchy |
42% |
50% |
8% |
|
(3) Opinion Research Corp. |
46% |
51% |
3% |
|
(2) Pew Research Center |
39% |
53% |
8% |
|
(1) Franklin & Marshall |
45% |
50% |
5% |
(14) Rasmussen Reports – Telephone interviews with 3,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(13) Gallup – Telephone interviews with 2,413 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 22 to Oct. 24, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(12) Princeton Survey Research Associates International / Newsweek – Telephone interviews with 882 likely American voters, conducted on Oct. 22 and Oct. 23, 2008. Margin of error is 4 per cent.
(11) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research / Democracy Corps – Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 21 to Oct. 23, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(10) Big Ten Universities – Telephone interviews with 1,014 American adults, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.
(9) CBS News / New York Times – Telephone interviews with 1,152 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 22, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(8) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News – Telephone interviews with 936 likely American voters, conducted on Oct. 20 and Oct. 21, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(7) American Research Group – Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 18 to Oct. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(6) Hart/Newhouse / Wall Street Journal / NBC News – Telephone interviews with 1,159 registered American voters, conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 2.9 per cent.
(5) GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media / Associated Press – Telephone interviews with 800 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(4) Ipsos / McClatchy Newspapers – Telephone interviews with 773 registered American voters, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 20, 2008. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.
(3) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN – Telephone interviews with 694 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(2) Pew Research Center for the People & the Press – Telephone interviews with 2,382 American adults, conducted from Oct. 16 to Oct. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
(1) Franklin & Marshall College – Telephone interviews with 1,365 registered American voters, conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 19, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
