(10/13/08) -

U.S. 2008: Obama 49.4%, McCain 43.1%

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama is holding on to the lead in the United States presidential race, according to a review of 11 voting intention surveys conducted over the past 13 days. 49.4 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator in the election, while 43.1 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Democrat Barack Obama is holding on to the lead in the United States presidential race, according to a review of 11 voting intention surveys conducted over the past 13 days. 49.4 per cent of voters would support the Illinois senator in the election, while 43.1 per cent would back Arizona senator John McCain.

Obama is ahead of McCain in all of the surveys, and reaches the 50 per cent mark in five of them. More than seven per cent of respondents remain undecided, or would vote for other candidates. The results are almost identical to the last ARGM Poll Average. 

On Oct. 7, the two rivals participated in the second of three scheduled televised debates. In their closing messages, the contenders outlined their vision.

Obama stated: "The question in this election is: are we going to pass on that same American dream to the next generation? Over the last eight years, we’ve seen that dream diminish. Wages and incomes have gone down. People have lost their health care or are going bankrupt because they get sick. We’ve got young people who have got the grades and the will and the drive to go to college, but they just don’t have the money. And we can’t expect that if we do the same things that we’ve been doing over the last eight years, that somehow we are going to have a different outcome. We need fundamental change."

McCain declared: "I know what it’s like to have your comrades reach out to you and your neighbours and your fellow citizens and pick you up and put you back in the fight. That’s what America’s all about. I believe in this country. I believe in its future. I believe in its greatness. It’s been my great honour to serve it for many, many years. And I’m asking the American people to give me another opportunity and I’ll rest on my record, but I’ll also tell you, when times are tough, we need a steady hand at the tiller and the great honour of my life was to always put my country first."

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2004, Republican George W. Bush earned a second term after securing 286 electoral votes from 31 states. Democratic nominee John Kerry received 252 electoral votes from 19 states and the District of Columbia.

Bush is ineligible for a third term in office. The presidential election is scheduled for Nov. 4.

Polling Data

National Vote – 2008 U.S. Presidential Election

Contenders: John McCain (R), Barack Obama (D)

(11) Rasmussen Reports – Telephone interviews with 3,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 9 to Oct. 11, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(10) Gallup – Telephone interviews with 2,773 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 8 to Oct. 10, 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.
(9) Opinion Dynamics / Fox News – Telephone interviews with 900 registered American voters, conducted on Oct. 8 and Oct. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(8) Princeton Survey Research Associates International / Newsweek – Telephone interviews with 1,035 registered American voters, conducted on Oct. 8 and Oct. 9, 2008. Margin of error is 3.7 per cent.
(7) American Research Group – Telephone interviews with 1,200 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 4 to Oct. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(6) Abt SRBI / Time – Telephone interviews with 1,053 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(5) Ipsos / McClatchy Newspapers – Telephone interviews with 858 registered American voters, conducted from Oct. 2 to Oct. 6, 2008. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.
(4) Hart/Newhouse / Wall Street Journal / NBC News – Telephone interviews with 658 registered American voters, conducted on Oct. 4 and Oct. 5, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(3) CBS News – Telephone interviews with 957 American adults, conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 5, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(2) Opinion Research Corporation / CNN – Telephone interviews with 694 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 3 to Oct. 5, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.
(1) Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research / Democracy Corps – Telephone interviews with 1,000 likely American voters, conducted from Oct. 1 to Oct. 5, 2008. Margin of error is 3 per cent.