(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Israel’s rightist Likud party has gained momentum as a legislative election draws near, according to a poll by Maagar Mochot released by Channel 2. A prospective tally of seats shows that the party of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could secure 34 seats in the Knesset in the February ballot, up three since mid January.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Israel’s rightist Likud party has gained momentum as a legislative election draws near, according to a poll by Maagar Mochot released by Channel 2. A prospective tally of seats shows that the party of former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu could secure 34 seats in the Knesset in the February ballot, up three since mid January.
The governing Kadima party is second with 22 seats, followed by Israel Our Home with 16—up three since mid-January—Labour with 13, and the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with 10. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, United Torah Judaism, Jewish Home, and National Union. The Arab parties would secure 10 seats.
In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and Gil joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.
In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.
Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.
Likud leader Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.
On Jan. 25, Livni warned that electing a right-wing government could strain Israel’s relationship with the United States, who would see it as "a peace refuser" because Likud rejects a two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.
Netanyahu replied to the foreign minister’s comments saying, "Livni is stressed because she knows she will be losing the elections in 16 days, so she’s shooting at all directions and spreading a ridiculous spin."
Polling Data
Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)
|
|
Jan. 27 |
Jan. 18 |
Jan. 13 |
|
Likud (Consolidation) |
34 |
31 |
28 |
|
Kadima (Forward) |
22 |
23 |
26 |
|
Israel Our Home (Yisrael Beiteinu) |
16 |
13 |
14 |
|
Labour |
13 |
15 |
16 |
|
International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) |
10 |
12 |
10 |
|
Vitality-Together (Meretz-Yachad) |
5 |
6 |
6 |
|
Yahadut Hatorah (United Torah Judaism) |
5 |
5 |
5 |
|
Jewish Home (Habayit Hayehudi) |
3 |
3 |
3 |
|
National Union (HaIhud HaLeumi) |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Green Party (Yerukim) |
– |
1 |
– |
|
Retired People’s Party (Gil) |
– |
1 |
– |
|
Arab Parties |
10 |
9 |
10 |
Source: Maagar Mochot / Channel 2
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 529 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 27, 2009. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.
