(01/31/09) -

Likud Stable, Kadima Drops in Israel

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The rightist Likud party is holding on to the top spot in Israel’s legislative race, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally shows that the opposition party would secure 28 seats in the Knesset, followed by the governing Kadima with 24 mandates.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The rightist Likud party is holding on to the top spot in Israel’s legislative race, according to a poll by Teleseker published in Maariv. A prospective tally shows that the opposition party would secure 28 seats in the Knesset, followed by the governing Kadima with 24 mandates.

Labour and Israel Our Home are tied for third place with 13 seats, followed by the International Organization of Torah-observant Sephardic Jews (Shas) with nine mandates. Support is lower for Vitality-Together, Yahadut Hatorah, Jewish Home, and National Union. The Arab parties would get nine seats.

In March 2006, Israeli voters renewed the Knesset. Kadima, founded by former prime minister Ariel Sharon and led by Ehud Olmert, secured 29 seats in the legislature. Labour, Shas and the Retired People’s Party (Gil) joined Kadima in a coalition. In October, the Israeli cabinet approved the addition of Israel Our Home to the Olmert-led government.

In May 2008, Israeli police raided the offices of Jerusalem’s city government and seized documents related to Olmert’s tenure as mayor, from 1993 to 2003. In July, Olmert announced that he would not participate in an extraordinary internal ballot for Kadima’s leadership. In September, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni defeated transportation minister Shaul Mofaz in a close race to become Kadima’s new leader.

Livni was supposed to take over as Israel’s prime minister, but was unable to assemble a government. A snap election will take place on Feb. 10.

Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu served as prime minister from June 1996 to July 1999, and resigned from Sharon’s cabinet—where he held the finance portfolio—after opposing the "Disengagement Plan." Labour leader Ehud Barak—the current defence minister—headed the Israeli government from July 1999 to March 2001.

On Jan. 18, Israel declared a unilateral ceasefire to a three-week long military operation in the Gaza Strip. The mission sought to stop the launching of Qassam rockets into Israeli territory by Hamas, the Islamic militant and political organization that has been in control of the territory since June 2007. More than 1,300 people died on the Palestinian side and more than 5,000 were wounded. Women and children account for more than a third of the Palestinian fatalities, and almost half of the injuries. The Israeli death toll is tabled at 13 people.

On Jan. 27, Shas chairman Eli Yishai endorsed Netanyahu as his preferred prime minister, declaring, "Netanyahu has learned the lessons from what he did in the Sharon government, in which he hurt the weaker segments of society so badly."

Livni offered an explanation to Yishai’s decision, saying, "I was told that Shas would not be able to back me, because they are angry over the fact that during my tenure as justice minister I insisted on reserving two seats for members of the national religious community in the religious courts."

Polling Data

Prospective results of a Knesset election
(Results presented in seats)

Source: Teleseker / Maariv
Methodology: Interviews with 600 Israeli adults, conducted on Jan. 22, 2009. Margin of error is 3.5 per cent.