(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Peru’s main opposition politician could win the first round of voting in the 2011 presidential election but would be defeated in the run-off, according to a poll by Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado published in Perú 21. 19 per cent of respondents would support Ollanta Humala of the Union for Peru (UP) in the ballot.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Peru’s main opposition politician could win the first round of voting in the 2011 presidential election but would be defeated in the run-off, according to a poll by Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado published in Perú 21. 19 per cent of respondents would support Ollanta Humala of the Union for Peru (UP) in the ballot.
Keiko Sofía Fujimori—the daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori—is second with 17 per cent, followed by Lima mayor Luis Castañeda Lossio with 15 per cent, former president Alejandro Toledo with 10 per cent, former conservative presidential candidate Lourdes Flores Nano with nine per cent, and current prime minister Jorge del Castillo with five per cent.
Humala trails both Castañeda and Fujimori in two prospective second round scenarios, while Castañeda holds a 14-point lead over Fujimori.
In June 2006, Alan García—a member of the conservative American Revolutionary People’s Alliance (APRA)—won Peru’s presidential election in a run-off against nationalist Humala. In July, García officially took over as president. He had previously served as Peru’s head of state from 1985 to 1990, when he oversaw a major economic crisis.
On Sept. 16, Humala criticized García, saying, "He acts with arrogance, as if he had the support of more than 50 per cent of the population. Garcia doesn’t represent the majority of the Peruvians. In his conditions, he only represents those people who do not want most of us, Peruvians, to get benefitted from the economic growth."
Polling Data
If the next presidential election were held tomorrow, who would you vote for?
|
Ollanta Humala |
19% |
|
Keiko Sofía Fujimori |
17% |
|
Luis Castañeda Lossio |
15% |
|
Alejandro Toledo |
10% |
|
Lourdes Flores Nano |
9% |
|
Jorge del Castillo |
5% |
Prospective Run-Off Scenarios
Luis Castañeda Lossio 51% – 31% Ollanta Humala
Keiko Sofía Fujimori 40% – 32% Ollanta Humala
Luis Castañeda Lossio 46% – 32% Keiko Sofía Fujimori
Source: Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinión y Mercado / Perú 21
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 891 Peruvian adults, conducted in late July and early August 2008. Margin of error is 3.2 per cent.
