(07/27/08) -

Bolivias Morales Would Survive Recall Vote

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – There is no indication that Bolivian president Evo Morales would be effectively removed from his post after an upcoming recall referendum, according to a poll by Captura Consulting SRL published in La Prensa. Only 18 per cent of respondents would vote to oust Morales, while 49 per cent would vote to keep him as president.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – There is no indication that Bolivian president Evo Morales would be effectively removed from his post after an upcoming recall referendum, according to a poll by Captura Consulting SRL published in La Prensa. Only 38 per cent of respondents would vote to oust Morales, while 49 per cent would vote to keep him as president.

Morales—an indigenous leader and former coca-leaf farmer—won the December 2005 presidential election as the candidate for the Movement to Socialism (MAS), with 53.7 per cent of the vote. He officially took over as Bolivia’s head of state in January 2006.

Morales’s tenure has been focused on "re-founding" Bolivia through a new constitution. In November 2007, a draft constitution was approved with the support of all pro-government National Constituent Assembly members. Opposition parties boycotted the vote. The proposed draft includes articles that allow for consecutive presidential re-election, the creation of 36 autonomous indigenous communities, and tighter government controls over private media outlets. The new charter has yet to be ratified in a national referendum.

This year, the departments of Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija—all led by politicians opposed to Morales—have held votes in an effort to increase their autonomy within Bolivia, directly defying articles in the new constitution. In response to the non-binding referendums, Morales enacted a law that schedules a recall vote on himself, Bolivian vice-president Álvaro García Linera, and the country’s nine governors or "departmental prefects" for Aug. 10.

In order to recall the incumbent president and vice-president, the proportion of valid votes against the ticket must be higher than the 53.7 per cent they garnered in the 2006 presidential election.

On Jul. 1, Brazilian president Luis Inacio Lula da Silva expressed support for Morales ahead of the vote, saying, "The Bolivian native people who were subdued for 500 years and treated as if they were from a third class chose one among them to govern them. (…) [Morales] should have the necessary patience to work calmly because our enemies expect to make us nervous."

Polling Data

How would you vote in the referendum on the tenure of Bolivian president Evo Morales?

Source: Captura Consulting SRL / La Prensa
Methodology: Interviews with 1,600 adult Bolivians in La Paz, El Alto, Santa Cruz and Cochabamba, conducted from Jul. 11 to Jul. 15, 2008. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.