(11/29/07) -

Half in Venezuela Reject New Constitution

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – An upcoming referendum on constitutional reform that could allow Hugo Chávez to stay in power indefinitely could fail to win enough votes in Venezuela, according to a poll by Datanálisis published in El Universal. 49 per cent of respondents would vote against the reforms promoted by the president, while 39 per cent would support them.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – An upcoming referendum on constitutional reform that could allow Hugo Chávez to stay in power indefinitely could fail to win enough votes in Venezuela, according to a poll by Datanálisis published in El Universal. 49 per cent of respondents would vote against the reforms promoted by the president, while 39 per cent would support them.

Chávez—a left-leaning leader—has been in office since February 1999. In July 2000, he was elected to a six-year term with 59.5 per cent of all cast ballots. In August 2004, Chávez won a referendum on his tenure with 59 per cent of the vote. The special election was called after opposition organizations in Venezuela gathered 2.5 million signatures to force a recall ballot. In December 2006, Chávez earned a new six-year term with 62.89 per cent of the vote.

In June, Chávez revealed during a televised interview his proposal to reform the country’s constitution for the second time since he took office. The new draft calls for 69 amendments to the Constitution, including the introduction of a clause that would allow the unlimited re-election of the head of state, and a measure to put the central bank in the president’s hands. The president also mentioned he is considering the introduction of a presidential-parliamentary system in Venezuela.

The National Assembly—where pro-Chávez lawmakers control more than two-thirds of the seats— has already approved the president’s proposed draft. A nationwide referendum will take place on Dec. 2.

On Nov. 6, as he launched a campaign in favour of the new Constitution, Chávez called the upcoming referendum "the most important battle" of the "Bolivarian revolution" so far.

On Nov. 27, Chávez said he is confident the referendum will pass by a wide margin, and warned that opponents will cry fraud and call for violent protests, declaring, "Next Sunday, I expect we will win with a minimum lead of 10 points and a ceiling of 20 points. (…) But we are all certain that, even if we beat them by 10 points, or 20 or 50, they will say we stole the election and will try to destabilize [the government]. They are already trying."

Polling Data

How would you vote on the constitutional referendum?
(Likely Voters)