(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Elisa Carrió has gained some support in Argentina, but Cristina Fernández de Kirchner continues to lead all other presidential contenders, according to a poll by Hugo Haime y Asociados. 47.9 per cent of respondents would vote for the current first lady in this weekend’s election, while 16 per cent would back Carrió.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Elisa Carrió has gained some support in Argentina, but Cristina Fernández de Kirchner continues to lead all other presidential contenders, according to a poll by Hugo Haime y Asociados. 47.9 per cent of respondents would vote for the current first lady in this weekend’s election, while 16 per cent would back Carrió.
Support for Fernández de Kirchner remained practically the same comparing to September, while Carrió—of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI)—gained three points.
Former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) is third with 11.1 per cent, followed by San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with 5.4 per cent, and Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 3.5 per cent.
Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the election held in April 2003. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV). Kirchner was eligible for re-election, but decided to back his wife’s bid instead
Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.
On Oct. 21, Carrió said she is confident she will become president if her main contender fails to win an outright victory in the first round of voting, declaring, "I can’t be irresponsible and predict there will be a run-off at this point, but I can say that if there is one I will be president." Carrió said she believes there will be a second round of voting, adding, "There is a great number of undecided voters. (…) There are a lot of people that don’t want to vote for Cristina. I don’t know what would have happened if the candidate was the president and not her."
The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the presidential election?
|
Oct. 2007 |
Sept. 2007 |
Aug. 2007 |
|
|
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner |
47.9% |
47.2% |
49.8% |
|
Elisa Carrió |
16.0% |
13.0% |
9.9% |
|
Roberto Lavagna |
11.1% |
12.9% |
10.7% |
|
Alberto Rodríguez Saá |
5.4% |
5.0% |
1.0% |
|
Ricardo López Murphy |
3.5% |
4.0% |
4.4% |
Source: Hugo Haime y Asociados Methodology: Interviews to 2,500 Argentine voters, conducted from Oct. 11 to Oct. 16, 2007. No margin of error was provided.
