(10/19/07) -

Argentina 2007: Cristina 44.4%, Elisa 13.9%

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Argentina’s first lady has lost some public backing but remains the favourite candidate to win this month’s presidential election, according to a poll by Analogías. 44.4 per cent of respondents would vote for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the ballot, down 1.8 points since June.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Argentina’s first lady has lost some public backing but remains the favourite candidate to win this month’s presidential election, according to a poll by Analogías. 44.4 per cent of respondents would vote for Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in the ballot, down 1.8 points since June.

Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 13.9 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with 10.6 per cent, and Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 2.9 per cent.

Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).

Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.

A large portion of Fernández de Kirchner’s campaign has been staged outside Argentina. On Sept. 28, Lavagna criticized her approach, saying, "Her campaign consists principally of having her picture taken abroad."

The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.

Polling Data

Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?

Source: Analogías
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 4,000 Argentine adults, conducted in October 2007. No margin of error was provided.