(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The outcome of this month’s s presidential election in Argentina seems clear, according to a poll by OPSM. 44.6 per cent of respondents would vote for first lady and senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, down 1.5 points since September.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The outcome of this month’s s presidential election in Argentina seems clear, according to a poll by OPSM. 44.6 per cent of respondents would vote for first lady and senator Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, down 1.5 points since September.
Elisa Carrió of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) is second with 15.4 per cent, followed by former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) with 9.3 per cent, San Luis governor Alberto Rodríguez Saá of the Justicialist Front, Union and Liberty (FREJULI) with 6.5 per cent, Ricardo López Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with 2.6 per cent, and Neuquen governor Jorge Sobisch with 0.8 per cent.
Néstor Kirchner finished second to former president Carlos Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).
Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.
A large portion of Fernández de Kirchner’s campaign has been developed outside Argentina. In late September, José Miguel Vivanco, the Americas director for the non-profit organization Human Rights Watch (HRW), referred to the candidate’s knowledge and interest in international affairs, saying, "Argentina under Cristina Kirchner is going to develop a very visible foreign policy. (…) If she finds the angle, I don’t think she will be shy to actively engage Argentina in difficult human rights cases like the Sudan or Burma."
The presidential election is scheduled for Oct. 28.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?
|
Oct. 2007 |
Sept. 2007 |
Jul. 2007 |
|
|
Cristina Fernández de Kirchner |
44.6% |
46.1% |
48.2% |
|
Elisa Carrió |
15.4% |
14.4% |
10.6% |
|
Roberto Lavagna |
9.3% |
13.0% |
11.9% |
|
Alberto Rodríguez Saá |
6.5% |
2.4% |
n.a. |
|
Ricardo López Murphy |
2.6% |
4.8% |
4.2% |
|
Jorge Sobisch |
0.8% |
1.2% |
1.5% |
Source: Opinión Pública, Servicios y Mercados (OPSM)
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,100 Argentine adults, conducted in October 2007. No margin of error was provided.
