(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Cristina Fern¡ndez de Kirchner could win this year’s presidential election in Argentina, according to a poll by Ipsos Mora y Araujo. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the country’s first lady, up 12 points since January.
(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Cristina Fern¡ndez de Kirchner could win this year’s presidential election in Argentina, according to a poll by Ipsos Mora y Araujo. 49 per cent of respondents would vote for the country’s first lady, up 12 points since January.
Former economy minister Roberto Lavagna of An Advanced Nation (UNA) is a distant second with 11 per cent, followed by Elisa Carri³ of the Alliance Affirmation for an Egalitarian Republic (ARI) with nine per cent, former president Carlos Menem with five per cent, and Ricardo L³pez Murphy of Recreate (Recrear) with three per cent.
Néstor Kirchner finished second to Menem in the 2003 election. Menem withdrew from the scheduled run-off after voting intention polls suggested an overwhelming victory for Kirchner, candidate of the Front for Victory (FV).
Argentina has held five presidential elections since the demise of an eight-year military dictatorship in 1982. In the event no candidate garners more than 45 per cent of the vote—or reaches a percentage between 40 and 45 per cent with a 10 per cent lead over the closest competitor—a run-off between the two leading candidates must take place.
Last month, Fern¡ndez de Kirchner announced she would run to succeed her husband later this year as candidate for the FV. The current head of state was eligible for re-election, but decided to back his wife’s bid instead.
On Aug. 22, L³pez Murphy confirmed rumours that he is trying to forge a coalition with Carri³ to have a greater chance of defeating Fern¡ndez de Kirchner in the election. However, Carri³ has stated that she has a “moral impediment” for striking a deal with L³pez Murphy, since he remains an ally of conservative Mauricio Macri, the recently-elected mayor of Buenos Aires.
On Aug. 23, ARI lawmaker Marta Maffei said her party could stop supporting Carri³ if she strikes a deal with L³pez Murphy, adding, “In case that happens, we would have to discuss that possibility, but I am working so that (the deal) is not finalized.”
Polling Data
Who would you vote for in the next presidential election?
Aug. 2007 | Jun. 2007 | Jan. 2007 | |
Cristina Fern¡ndez de Kirchner | 49% | 45% | 37% |
Roberto Lavagna | 11% | 10% | 6% |
Elisa Carri³ | 9% | 9% | 6% |
Carlos Menem | 5% | 4% | 3% |
Ricardo L³pez Murphy | 3% | 4% | – |
Source: Ipsos Mora y Araujo
Methodology: Interviews to 1,200 Argentine adults, conducted in August 2007. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.
