In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,008 Canadian adults, 30 per cent of respondents say they are better off now than they were five years ago, while 29 per cent are about the same, and 38 per cent report being worse off now.

Personal Finances

One-in-four Canadians (26%) say their current personal financial situation is excellent or good, while 32 per cent deem it poor or awful. However, more than a third of Canadians (36%) say they are now more pessimistic about their own financial situation than five years ago.

Safety

Three-in-five Canadians (58%) rate the level of safety in their own community as excellent or good, while only nine per cent deem it poor or awful. However, 22 per cent of respondents claim that they feel less safe now than five years ago.

International Relations

Two-in-five Canadians (38%) rate Canada’s current role in the world stage as excellent or good, while one-in-five (21%) consider it as poor or awful. While three-in-five Conservatives (60%) are happy with Canada’s role in international relations, less than a third of respondents who voted for other parties in 2008 concur.

More than a third of respondents (37%) say that Canada’s role in the world has not changed since 2006, but three-in-ten (29%) believe the country now plays a less constructive role than it did five years ago—including a majority of Liberal Party voters (51%) and Bloc Québécois voters (59%).

Harper’s Tenure

Two-in-five Canadians (43%) believe Stephen Harper has performed in about the same fashion as they expected when he first took office five years ago, while one third (34%) think he has done worse. Only 12 per cent of respondents think Harper has performed better than they expected.

Quebecers are particularly critical of Harper, with three-in-five (60%) saying he has performed worse than they originally expected. Conversely, 22 per cent of Albertans, 19 per cent of respondents in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and 16 per cent of British Columbians say Harper has done better than they anticipated.

More than a third of Conservative voters (36%) say Harper has been a better prime minister than they envisioned, but less than one-in-ten respondents who voted for the other federal parties concur.

Analysis

Canadians are not particularly concerned with the issue of public safety at this point, and their views on personal finances are reasonably similar—even after party allegiance is factored in. The key disparity is on international relations. The Conservative base appears to provide a ringing endorsement for the current prime minister’s actions on the world stage, but supporters of the opposition parties are very critical of Canada’s current role.

When it comes to the “better off” question, the sentiments are mixed. More Grits than Tories acknowledge that their situation is roughly the same, and New Democratic Party (NDP) supporters are above the national average on being better off now than in 2006.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs, Canada
+613 691 0948
jaideep.mukerji@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From January 13 to January 14, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,008 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

Jaideep Mukerji discusses the findings on CTV.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,008 Canadian adults, 34 per cent of respondents (-3 since December) would support the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The Liberal Party is second with 28 per cent (+2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 17 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 11 per cent (+1), and the Green Party with eight per cent (+1).

While the Tories and the NDP are now below their final tally in the 2008 election, the Grits, the Bloc and the Greens are ahead of their result in the last federal ballot.

Regional Breakdowns

The Tories maintain their dominance in Alberta (65%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (44%). In British Columbia, two-in-five decided voters would support the governing party (42%), followed by the NDP (25%) and the Liberals (21%).

The biggest change has come in Ontario, where the 13-point Tory lead observed in December has become a statistical tie (Conservatives 38%, Liberals 36%). In Quebec, the Bloc remains ahead with 43 per cent, followed by the three federalist parties (Lib. 22%, NDP 15%, Con. 13%).

Support for the Liberals is practically the same among men (29%) and women (27%), while a noticeable gender gap continues with the Tories. Almost two-in-five decided male voters (38%) would cast a ballot for the Conservative candidate in their riding, but only 29 per cent of women would join them.

The Conservatives dominate with voters aged 55 and over (42%), but are now tied with the Liberals among voters aged 35 to 54 (both at 32 per cent).

Approval and Momentum

There was little movement in these questions, with Conservative leader and Prime Minister Stephen Harper maintaining an approval rating of 26 per cent. NDP leader Jack Layton gained a point to tie Harper at 26 per cent, while Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff dropped to 12 per cent. Layton keeps the best momentum score of the three leaders at -3, followed by Harper with -18 and Ignatieff with -20.

Legislatures

Overall approval for the House of Commons fell by six points since December to 27 per cent, with disapproval rising four points to 47 per cent. The Senate keeps lower numbers, with just 18 per cent of respondents (-5 since December) approving of its actions. One-in-four Canadians (25%) are satisfied with the way their provincial legislature is performing, down five points in a month.

Analysis

The start of 2011 did not provide a boost to the Conservative Party, with a noticeable drop across the country and in Ontario—the key battleground for the next federal election. The current gender and age gaps would not allow the Tories to get a majority mandate in a snap election.

The Liberals are performing better than in 2008, but the approval rating for Michael Ignatieff remains low. The NDP has not reached the 20 per cent mark since July, and is having a difficult time connecting with middle-aged voters. The two parties that did better this month are the Bloc and the Greens, particularly among young voters.

The latest editions of the Canadian Political Pulse can be accessed here:

January 2010 / February 2010 / March 2010 / April 2010 / May 2010 / July 2010 / August 2010 / September 2010 / October 2010 / December 2010

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+613 691 0948
jaideep.mukerji@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From January 7 to January 9, 2011, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 1,008 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,000 Canadian adults, 49 per cent of respondents agree with holding a federal election next year while one third (34%) disagree with the idea.

Nearly three-in-five respondents who voted for the Conservative Party in the 2008 federal election (57%) do not want to see an election in 2011. Conversely, 58 per cent of people who voted for either the Liberal Party or the New Democratic Party (NDP) in 2008 do support an election.

Despite their personal opinions on the matter, a majority of Canadians (57%) feel that a federal election is likely in the New Year. One quarter (24%) think it is unlikely while one-in-five are not sure (19%).

When asked which election outcome they would personally prefer, 36 per cent of respondents favour a Conservative government while slightly fewer (30%) support Liberal control. That said, nearly half of Canadians (48%) expect that the Conservatives will maintain their position in Ottawa. More than a third are not sure (36%) and 16 per cent expect the Liberals to form the government.

Were the Conservatives to win a majority of the seats in the House of Commons, 41 per cent of Canadians would be dissatisfied and one third would be happy (34%). With a Conservative minority government, 44 per cent would not be satisfied while 31 per cent would be content.

A scenario where the Conservatives win more seats than any other single party, but the Liberals and the NDP form a coalition government—having more combined seats than the Conservatives—would leave 31 per cent of Canadians satisfied, and 43 per cent dissatisfied.

Canadians would be most unhappy with a scenario in which the Conservatives win the most seats but the Liberals and NDP form a coalition government with the support of the Bloc Québécois. Only one-in-four Canadians (25%) would be satisfied with this outcome, while half of respondents (50%) would be dissatisfied.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From December 21 to December 22, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,016 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,013 Canadian adults, 38 per cent of respondents (+1 since October) would back the governing Conservative Party in the next federal election.

The Liberal Party is second with 26 per cent (=), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 18 per cent (-1), the Bloc Québécois with 10 per cent (=), and the Green Party with seven per cent (+1). Stagnation has evidently hit all five federal parties, which are within a point of their totals in the 2008 federal election.

Regional Breakdowns

Half of voters in Alberta (50%) and Manitoba and Saskatchewan (51%) continue to express a preference for the Conservatives. In British Columbia, the NDP has dropped to second place with 30 per cent, with the Tories now ahead by nine points.

In Ontario, the Conservatives have extended their advantage over the Liberals (44% to 31%). In Quebec, the Bloc is still ahead (39%), with the three federalist parties far behind (Lib. 19%, Con. 18%, NDP 17%).

Leaders

Respondents across the country were asked if the five main federal parties should keep their current leader or change their current leader before the next federal election takes place. While 44 per cent of Canadians would prefer to see a different person leading the governing Conservatives, Stephen Harper gets a vote of confidence from 79 per cent of those who voted for the Tories in the 2008 federal ballot.

Across Canada, 51 per cent of respondents would keep Jack Layton as leader of the New Democratic Party (NDP), along with 80 per cent of those who voted for the NDP in 2008. Gilles Duceppe posts similar numbers (64% of Quebecers want him to stay as leader, along with 86% of Bloc voters from 2008). Half of Canadians (51%) are undecided on whether Elizabeth May should remain as leader of the Greens, but 64 per cent of those who voted for the Green Party in 2008 would keep her.

The situation is unquestionably different for Michael Ignatieff, with a majority of Canadians (56%) and almost half of Liberal voters in 2008 (46%) claiming that the Grits should change their leader before the next federal election.

Approval and Momentum

The approval rating for each of the three main leaders fell by two points since October. Prime Minister and Conservative leader Stephen Harper stands at 26 per cent this month, NDP leader Jack Layton is at 25 per cent, and Liberal Party and Official Opposition leader Michael Ignatieff is last with 14 per cent.

Layton maintains the best momentum score of the three leaders at -9, followed by Ignatieff with -19 and Harper with -22.

Attributes

Canadians were asked to select up to six words or expressions from a list to describe the four party leaders sitting in the House of Commons. The top five results for each one of the leaders are:

• Stephen Harper – Secretive (43%), arrogant (39%), out of touch (33%), intelligent (34%), boring (30%)

• Gilles Duceppe – Arrogant (31%), out of touch (26%), intelligent (26%), boring (19%), secretive (19%)

Legislatures

Starting this month, Angus Reid Public Opinion will provide an assessment of the way Canadians feel about various legislative bodies. One third of respondents (33%) approve of the way the House of Commons is handling its job, while 43 per cent disapprove. The rating is decidedly lower for the Senate of Canada (Approve 23%, Disapprove 47%). Just about three-in-ten Canadians (28%) endorse the way their provincial legislature is performing, while half of respondents (51%) disapprove.

Analysis

As a whole, the Canadian electorate did not go through a major shift over the past month, with the Conservatives still entrenched in “minority government” territory and the opposition parties practically stagnant.

The survey does provide sobering news for Michael Ignatieff, whose negative attributes have increased markedly this time around—including the proportion of Canadians who see him as out of touch, weak and inefficient—and with almost half of Liberal voters in 2008 calling for a change before the next election is called.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From December 6 to December 7, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,013 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,009 Canadians also shows that a third of Canadians believe the country will never have an elected Senate.

The Status Quo

Slightly less than half of respondents (44%) believe Canada needs a Senate, but Canadians should be allowed to take part in the process to choose senators. This position is particularly popular in British Columbia (54%), Atlantic Canada (53%) and Ontario (49%).

About three-in-ten respondents (28%) believe Canada does not need a Senate, but would prefer to have all legislation reviewed and authorized by the House of Commons. Quebecers (42%) are particularly fond of this notion.

Only one-in-twenty Canadians (5%) endorse the status quo, and think that Canada needs a Senate, and that the current guidelines that call for appointed senators should not be modified.

Reforming the Senate

Across the country, three-in-five respondents (63%) support holding a nationwide referendum to decide the future of the Senate of Canada, including three-in-four Albertans (74%).

A sizeable majority of Canadians (63%) believe Canadian senators should be limited to eight-year terms. About a third of respondents (35%) endorse the idea of creating a panel distinguished Canadians to choose senators, instead of the Prime Minister. Three-in-ten Canadians (30%) are ready to abolish the Senate of Canada altogether, including 43 per cent of Quebecers.

However, the most popular idea continues to be allowing Canadians to directly elect their senators. Two thirds of respondents (69%) would like to see this happen, including 78 per cent of British Columbians.

The Prime Minister

Since July, when Prime Minister Stephen Harper appointed Salma Ataullahjan to the Senate, the Conservatives control 52 seats in the upper house, followed by the Liberals with 49 members and four independent senators—two of whom sit as Progressive Conservatives.

As was the case earlier this year, three-in-five Canadians (61%) claim Harper is being hypocritical because he has appointed senators despite his long-standing opposition to the Senate in its current form. Conversely, 39 per cent of respondents believe that the Prime Minister is not being hypocritical because he has appointed senators who agree with his views on Senate reform.

The Future

In another finding that has remained consistent throughout 2010, 35 per cent of respondents believe that Canadians will never be able to directly elect their senators, while 31 per cent expect this to happen in the next five years.

Analysis

Earlier this month, the Senate voted 43-32 to defeat the Climate Accountability Act, which had been passed in May by the House of Commons in a 149-136 vote. The outcome of the vote in the unelected upper house was criticized by opposition parties, and has reignited debate over the future of the Senate.

A sizeable majority of Canadians have consistently demanded a chance to elect their Senators for the past two years. Only one-in-twenty is satisfied with the status quo, but the idea of abolishing the upper house altogether remains at or near the 30 per cent mark.

Senate elections are attractive for a large proportion of respondents in Western Canada, Atlantic Canada and Ontario, but Quebecers are more likely to choose doing away with the upper house. Albertans are more likely to voice support for a nationwide referendum to settle the issue, and are vehemently opposed to the notion of a panel choosing senators instead of the Prime Minister—more so than respondents in any other region.

In the end, a third of Canadians continue to predict that they will never have a chance to vote for their senators, despite the fact that, for two straight years, two thirds of respondents have called for the opportunity to do so.

Our previous surveys on the Senate can be accessed here: February 2010 / July 2010

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Jaideep Mukerji, Vice President, Public Affairs
+514 409 0462
jaideep.mukerji@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 19 to November 20, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,009 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.