Diplomatic relations between the North and South have been strained since the end of the Korean War. A one-mile demilitarized zone has separated the two countries since 1953. About 28,000 American troops are currently stationed in South Korea.

Kim Jong-il has been the de-facto leader of North Korea since the death of his father, Kim Il Song, in 1994. North Korea was branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then United States president George W. Bush in January 2002. In February 2005, the government of North Korea admitted publicly for the first time that it possesses nuclear weapons.

The Government of South Korea has accused North Korea of using a torpedo to sink a ship in March, killing 46 South Korean sailors. North Korea has denied the allegations, and claims that South Korea manipulated the results of its own investigation.

On Jul. 27, Democratic Massachusetts Senator John Kerry called on the U.S. government to engage in direct talks with North Korea, saying, "The underlying security challenges have kept the Korean Peninsula locked in a Cold War for far too long, even as we are fully prepared to deter and defend against any North Korean aggression, a fact underscored by upcoming joint military exercises and the delay of the planned transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea."

Polling Data

If a war breaks out between North Korea and South Korea, would you support or oppose the U.S. Government authorizing a military invasion of North Korea with the aim of removing the North Korean Government?

Complete Poll (PDF)

While the possibility of armed conflict breaking out in the Korean Peninsula is now less likely for Americans, about half of people in the United States believe the government should not authorize a military invasion of North Korea, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The Government of South Korea has accused North Korea of using a torpedo to sink a ship in March, killing 46 South Korean sailors. North Korea has denied the allegations, and claims that South Korea manipulated the results of its own investigation.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,013 American adults, 12 per cent of respondents believe it is “very likely” that a war will break out between the two Koreas in the next year, while 40 per cent deem this possibility as “moderately likely”.

Since late May, the proportion of respondents who believe a conflict in the Korean Peninsula is likely has dropped by seven points.

About 28,000 American troops are currently stationed in South Korea. In the event of a war, almost half of Americans (47%) would approve of the U.S. soldiers helping the South Korean military. Conversely, 36 per cent of respondents would oppose such involvement.

More than a third of Americans (36%) would support the U.S. government authorizing a military invasion of North Korea with the aim of removing the North Korean government. Almost half (46%) are against this course of action.

Analysis

While the diplomatic tension in the Korean Peninsula has subsided as a concern for Americans, the views of respondents on how the U.S. should become engaged in an ultimate war remains unaffected. About half of Americans see no problem with American soldiers providing assistance to South Korea, but the same proportion rejects the idea of the U.S. authorizing a military invasion of North Korea with the aim of removing the North Korean government.

Republican Party supporters are more likely to support a military invasion of North Korea (47%) than Independents (36%) and Democrats (32%).

Our May 2010 survey on Tension in Korea can be accessed here.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From August 1 to August 2, 2010, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,013 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

China is second with 18 per cent, followed by Iran with 17 per cent, Pakistan with eight per cent, Afghanistan and Russia with three per cent each, and Iraq with two per cent.

Kim Jong-il has been the de-facto leader of North Korea since the death of his father, Kim Il Song, in 1994. North Korea was branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002. In February 2005, the government of North Korea admitted publicly for the first time that it possesses nuclear weapons.

In July 2006, North Korea launched seven missiles—including the Taepodong-2—which landed in the Sea of Japan close to Russian coastal areas. In October 2006, the country announced it had successfully carried out a test detonation of a nuclear weapon.

On Apr. 5, 2009, North Korea launched its long-range rocket, claiming it was used to place a satellite into orbit which is broadcasting "immortal revolutionary songs" and anthems praising Kim. On that same day, U.S. president Barack Obama declared: "North Korea broke the rules once again by testing a rocket that could be used for long-range missiles. This provocation underscores the need for action."

On Jun. 25, Pak Pyong Jong, first vice chairman of the Pyongyang City People’s Committee, told a crowd of hundreds of thousands that North Korea’s "armed forces will deal an annihilating blow that is unpredictable and unavoidable, to any sanctions or provocations by the U.S.," implying that this retaliation would include the use of nuclear weapons.

Polling Data

Which country is a bigger threat to the National Security of the United States…..Iran, North Korea, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, China or Russia?

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American likely voters, conducted on Jul. 1, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Kim Jong-il has been the de-facto leader of North Korea since the death of his father, Kim Il Song, in 1994. North Korea was branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002. In February 2005, the government of North Korea admitted publicly for the first time that it possesses nuclear weapons.

In July 2006, North Korea launched seven missiles—including the Taepodong-2—which landed in the Sea of Japan close to Russian coastal areas. In October 2006, the country announced it had successfully carried out a test detonation of a nuclear weapon.

On Apr. 5, North Korea launched its long-range rocket, claiming it was used to place a satellite into orbit which is broadcasting "immortal revolutionary songs" and anthems praising Kim. On that same day, U.S. president Barack Obama declared: "North Korea broke the rules once again by testing a rocket that could be used for long-range missiles. This provocation underscores the need for action."

The UN Security Council is in charge of maintaining peace and security between nations, issuing specific resolutions that governments must adhere to under the terms of the UN Charter. The internal organ currently has five permanent members—Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States—as well as 10 non-permanent members who are chosen for two-year terms.

On Apr. 13, all 15 members of the UN Security Council endorsed a statement that "condemns" the rocket launch, and deems it "in contravention of Security Council Resolution 1718 of 2006," which banned any missile tests by North Korea.

North Korea’s Foreign Ministry issued a communiqué, which claims the UN "rampantly" infringes upon the country’s sovereignty and states: "We have no choice but to further strengthen our nuclear deterrent to cope with additional military threats by hostile forces. (…) The six-party talks that we are taking part in are not necessary any more."

The six-party talks—which involve China, Japan, North Korea, Russia, South Korea and the United States—started in 2003 and are aimed at seeking a resolution to the security concerns raised by North Korea’s nuclear program.

Polling Data

In response to North Korea’s recent missile launch, how likely is it that the United Nations Security Council will take effective action against North Korea?

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Apr. 7 and Apr. 8, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

In addition, only 27 per cent of respondents would consent to the U.S. helping North Korea rebuild its economy if it abandons its nuclear weapons development program.

Kim Jong-il has been the de-facto leader of North Korea since the death of his father, Kim Il Song, in 1994. North Korea was branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002. In February 2005, the government of North Korea admitted publicly for the first time that it possesses nuclear weapons.

In July 2006, North Korea launched seven missiles—including the Taepodong-2—which landed in the Sea of Japan close to Russian coastal areas. In October 2006, the country announced it had successfully carried out a test detonation of a nuclear weapon.

On Apr. 3, U.S. president Barack Obama warned North Korea not to go ahead with a planned launch of a long-range rocket, declaring, "Should North Korea decide to take this action, we will work with all interested partners in the international community to take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that they cannot threaten the safety and stability of other countries with impunity."

On Apr. 5, North Korea launched its long-range rocket, claiming it was used to place a satellite into orbit which is broadcasting "immortal revolutionary songs" and anthems praising Kim. On that same day, Obama declared: "North Korea broke the rules once again by testing a rocket that could be used for long-range missiles. This provocation underscores the need for action."

Polling Data

If North Korea launches a long-range missile, should the United States take military action to eliminate North Korea’s ability to launch missiles?

If North Korea abandons its nuclear weapons development program, should the United States help North Korea rebuild its economy?

Source: Rasmussen Reports
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 American adults, conducted on Apr. 3 and Apr. 4, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

In September 2006, Shinzo Abe became the new leader of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Japan’s 90th prime minister. Abe vowed to "make Japan into a country full of vitality, opportunities and kindness."

Abe resigned on Sept. 10. His tenure was affected by allegations of corruption, massive clerical errors within the Social Insurance Agency (SIA), embarrassing statements by several cabinet members, and the suicide of agriculture minister Toshikatsu Matsuoka.

On Sept. 23, Yasuo Fukuda, a 71-year-old moderate who favours closer ties with Asia, was elected as the new LDP leader. Yesterday, Fukuda was officially sworn in as Japan’s prime minister.

In July 2006, North Korea launched seven missiles—including the Taepodong-2—which landed in the Sea of Japan close to Russian coastal areas. In October 2006, the country announced it had successfully carried out a test detonation of a nuclear weapon.

On Sept. 24, Kim Yon Chull, a policy researcher at Seoul’s Korea University, said he believes Fukuda could ease relations with North Korea, adding, "North Korea may expect a Fukuda government to refrain from acting harshly. In fact, the North may even expect a new premier to play a positive role in the six-nation talks."

The five nations engaged in negotiations to dismantle North Korea’s nuclear facilities—as promised by the government in Pyongyang—are the United States, China, Japan, Russia and South Korea.

Polling Data

Are you concerned about the possibility of a military attack against Japan?

In December 2002, U.S. president George W. Bush announced plans for the development of initial defence capabilities, which include ground-based and sea-based missile interceptors, as well as sensors located in space. Washington has explained the project as a means to defend the U.S. and its European allies from a potential attack by Iran or North Korea.

In January, the U.S. issued a formal request to place a missile defence radar base in the Czech Republic—in a military area southwest of Prague—as well as 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.

Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly voiced concerns over the defence plan, claiming it is unnecessary and represents a threat to his country’s national security.

On Aug. 24, Yuri Balyuevsky, the Russian military’s chief of staff, told a Czech delegation of diplomats their government should not commit to the American plan until the 2008 U.S. presidential election takes place, adding, "There are unfounded allegations that Russia is attempting to disrupt the peace and tranquillity of Western Europe."

Polling Data

Which of the following represents the greatest threat to Russia?

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Polish adults have not changed their minds about their country’s participation in a defence plan proposed by the United States, according to a poll by CBOS. 56 per cent of respondents oppose the deployment of an anti-missile shield on their soil, up one point since July.

In December 2002, U.S. president George W. Bush announced plans for the development of initial defence capabilities, which include ground-based and sea-based missile interceptors, as well as sensors located in space. Washington has explained the project as a means to defend the U.S. and its European allies from a potential attack by Iran or North Korea.

In January, the U.S. issued a formal request to place a missile defence radar base in the Czech Republic—in a military area southwest of Prague—as well as 10 interceptor missiles in Poland. The plan has sparked an angry reaction from the Russian government, which sees it as a threat to its own national security.

Poland’s current president and prime minister—Lech Kaczynski and Jaroslaw Kaczynski—support Poland’s participation in the defence plan. The terms of the agreement are still under negotiation and are expected to be finalized by the end of this year. Poland is expected to hold a new legislative election in October.

On Aug. 23, Austria’s defence minister Norbert Darabos called the American anti-missile plan a “provocation” that could spark a new arms race in the region, adding, “The U.S. has chosen the wrong path in my opinion. There is no point in building up a missile defence shield in Europe. That only unnecessarily rekindles old Cold War debates.”

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose the deployment of an anti-missile shield in Poland?