Angus Reid Public Opinion - Kevin Rudd

Labor Leads Two-Party Vote in Australia

admin — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 15:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Australia’s upcoming election looks tight but the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) holds an advantage in the two-party preferred vote system, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for the Coalition of Liberals and National in next month’s election to the House of Representatives, up four points since mid-July.

The ALP is second with 40 per cent, down two points, followed by the Australian Greens with 12 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a four-point lead over the Coalition.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Kevin Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Howard failed to retain his seat in the Bennelong constituency and stepped down as Liberal leader. Since their electoral defeat in 2007, the Liberals have had three different leaders: former defence minister Brendan Nelson, former environment minister Malcolm Turnbull, and former health minister Tony Abbott, the current leader.

On Jun. 23, ALP member and then deputy prime minister Julia Gillard called for a snap leadership challenge to Rudd to be held the following day. Although the prime minister had expressed confidence in having enough backers within his party’s ranks, he decided to step aside before the vote took place. Gillard became the first woman to serve as prime minister in Australia.

On Jul. 17, Gillard called an early election, which will be held on Aug. 21.

On Jul. 30, a spokeswoman for Rudd announced that he would undergo surgery to remove his gall bladder that day, adding, "Mr. Rudd looks forward to resuming campaign activities next week both in his own electorate, elsewhere in Queensland and the rest of the country as appropriate in support of the re-election of the government and Prime Minister Gillard."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Jul. 25	Jul. 18	Jun. 27	Jun. 20
Coalition (Liberal / National)	42%	38%	40%	40%
Australian Labor Party	40%	42%	42%	35%
Australian Greens	12%	12%	10%	15%
Others	6%	8%	8%	10%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Jul. 25	Jul. 18	Jun. 27	Jun. 20
Australian Labor Party	52%	55%	53%	52%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	48%	45%	47%	48%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,720 Australian voters, conducted from Jul. 23 to Jul. 25, 2010. Margin of error is 2.4 per cent.

Will Australia’s Election Really be a Photo Finish?

admin — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 15:01:01 +0000

Gabriela Perdomo – Australia has seen a hot winter of politics, shaken by Julia Gillard’s sudden takeover of the governing Australian Labor Party (ALP). The new prime minister—and the first woman to ever fill the post in the country—has now called a snap legislative ballot for Aug. 21. Despite her ruthless manoeuvre to unseat former ALP head and Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, Gillard appears to be a popular new leader who could carry her party into a solid new mandate.

When she challenged Rudd’s leadership on Jun. 23, Gillard claimed that his government was good, but "was losing its way." The House of Representatives was due to be renewed by November this year, and the then deputy prime minister thought Rudd’s sliding popularity would mean a defeat for the ALP in the fall. She gathered enough supporters and Rudd stepped down before facing an evident defeat in an internal leadership vote.

Gillard’s first move as prime minister is what allows many to predict that she will be a strong leader for the ALP ahead of next month’s ballot. Almost as soon as she took office, she resolved the standoff that was greatly hurting the Rudd administration: a disagreement with powerful global and local mining companies operating in Australia over the implementation of higher revenue taxes.

Earlier this year, Rudd’s team had proposed a "Super Profits" tax of 40 per cent on all mining revenues, infuriating representatives of the country’s largest and most profitable industry. Gillard successfully negotiated a new deal, the gist of which is changing the Super Profits initiative for a Minerals Resource Rent Tax at a 30 per cent rate, and covering only iron ore and coal. She also extended the 40 per cent Petroleum Resource Rent Tax currently applicable to offshore oil and gas projects to onshore projects. As originally envisioned by the Rudd administration, the new taxes would be implemented in July 2012—if approved by the next legislature.

The deal effectively ended the negotiations between the government and the mining industry. Spokespersons for BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, two mining giants that had engaged in a bitter and expensive campaign against the Super Profits tax, welcomed the new arrangement and promised to work collaboratively with the federal government again. The media has reproduced the message that both Australian people and businesses will benefit from the higher taxes.

Gillard has not played up the fact that she is Australia’s first female prime minister, only saying that she "acknowledges" that this is an important benchmark. Her three big moves of the last four weeks—unseating Rudd, clinching a deal with the mining industry, and calling a snap election to get a mandate from the Australian people—are sure to dissipate critics who might want to address her "female weakness."

The incumbent prime minister insists that the ballot will be close. But it might just be that she wants to downplay expectations and keep voters engaged. Surveys are already showing that Labor is gaining momentum. The latest Newspoll places the ALP ahead with 42 per cent, against 38 per cent for the conservative coalition of Liberals and National. In the two party preferred vote system, the ALP leads by five points.

An earlier Newspoll had shown that, while 47 per cent of Australians think Gillard will be a similar leader to Rudd, 38 per cent say she will be a better leader for the ALP.

One understated fact is that, despite losing his party’s support, Rudd was not as unpopular as perceived, especially not in relative terms compared to Liberal leader Tony Abbott. A late June poll showed Rudd’s popularity at 36 per cent, practically tied with Abbott’s 38 per cent—a considerable number of world leaders yearn for this rate of acceptance. The same survey revealed that Rudd was still the preferred prime minister between the two by a wide margin.

Rudd’s administration leaves Gillard in a good position to accomplish some election promises that he was not able to fulfill, such as implementing a cap-and-trade system for carbon emissions. His government oversaw one of the most stable economies during the global recession, as it increased trade with China, Australia’s largest trading partner. Gillard has said she will definitely pursue "putting a price on carbon" and says it is still possible to bring the budget back to surplus in 2013.

The former prime minister’s decline was a combination of personal gaffes, internal bickering over climate change, an ongoing refugee crisis, and the recent standoff over mining revenues. But the Labor government maintained a high popularity for most of its term, and delivered on many of its promises. Meanwhile, the Coalition entered in complete disarray. The Liberals have had three different leaders in as many years. Their opposition techniques have many people dubbing them the Australian version of "the Party of No."

Abbott’s personal numbers have not improved significantly despite the ALP’s recent crisis. Gillard might just be about to bring a solid second term in office for her party.

Many Australians See Gillard as Similar to Rudd

admin — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Almost half of people in Australia say the change in the leadership of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) will not make any difference, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 47 per cent of respondents say new leader Julia Gillard will be about the same as her predecessor and former prime minister, Kevin Rudd.

However, 38 per cent of respondents think Gillard will be a better leader for the ALP than Rudd.

Rudd was Australia’s prime minister from December 2007 until last month. On Jun. 23, ALP member and then deputy prime minister Julia Gillard called for a snap leadership challenge to Rudd to be held the following day. Although the prime minister had expressed confidence in having enough backers within his party’s ranks, he decided to step aside before the vote took place. Gillard became the first woman to serve as prime minister in Australia.

On Jul. 17, Gillard called an early election, which will be held on Aug. 21. Gillard made the announcement, adding, "I want to keep the economy strong so people can enjoy the benefits of work. We do not have to be afraid of the future; we can master big challenges like climate change together."

Polling Data

Thinking about the leadership of the federal parliamentary Labor Party, do you think Ms. Julia Gillard will be a better leader than Mr. Kevin Rudd, a worse leader, or do you think they would be about the same?

Better leader	38%
Worse leader	9%
About the same	47%
Uncommitted	6%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,142 Australian voters, conducted from Jun. 25 to Jun. 27, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Most Australians Were Unhappy with Rudd

admin — Fri, 25 Jun 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Just as Kevin Rudd stands down as leader of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and prime minister, the majority of people in the country were expressing dissatisfaction with his work, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 55 per cent of respondents were unhappy with Rudd’s leadership, up one point since late May.

The popularity of opposition leader Tony Abbott of the Liberal Party is also low, with 49 per cent of respondents dissatisfied with his work. Rudd was still the preferred prime minister over Abbott, 46 per cent to 37 per cent.

On Jun. 23, ALP member and deputy prime minister Julia Gillard called for a snap leadership challenge to Rudd to be held the following day. Although the prime minister had expressed confidence in having enough backers within his party’s ranks, he decided to step aside before the vote took place. Gillard became the first woman to serve as prime minister in Australia.

Yesterday, Gillard discussed her environmental proposals, saying, "If elected as Prime Minister I will re-prosecute the case for a carbon price at home and abroad. I will do that as global economic conditions improve and as our economy continues to strengthen."

Abbott dismissed the new prime minister, saying, "It’s clear that if you want to change the policies you’re going to have to change the government. They’ve changed the salesman but they haven’t changed the product."

Polling Data

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Kevin Rudd is doing his job as prime minister?

	Jun. 20	May 30	May 16
Satisfied	36%	36%	39%
Dissatisfied	55%	54%	51%
Uncommitted	9%	10%	10%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as leader of the opposition?

	Jun. 20	May 30	May 16
Satisfied	38%	37%	42%
Dissatisfied	49%	49%	45%
Uncommitted	13%	14%	13%

Who do you think would make the better prime minister?

	Jun. 20	May 30	May 16
Kevin Rudd (ALP)	46%	49%	49%
Tony Abbott (Lib.)	37%	33%	33%
Uncommitted	17%	18%	18%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,147 Australian voters, conducted from Jun. 18 to Jun. 20, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Australian Opposition Maintains Lead

admin — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 15:01:02 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Australia’s political scene is definitely experiencing a shift away from the governing party, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 40 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition alliance of Liberals and Nationals.

The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) remains second with 35 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 15 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP a four-point lead over the Coalition.

On Jun. 22, an unnamed spokesman for the opposition coalition said that Abbott had recently told a party crowd that they are "within reach of a famous victory" ahead of the next legislative election. He also quoted Abbott as saying that the victory is ‘"within our ready grasp." Abbott later denied having said these words.

Yesterday, Rudd tendered his resignation as ALP leader and prime minister and was substituted by Julia Gillard.

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Jun. 20	May 30	May 16
Coalition (Liberal / National)	40%	41%	43%
Australian Labor Party	35%	35%	37%
Australian Greens	15%	16%	12%
Others	10%	8%	8%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Jun. 20	May 30	May 16
Australian Labor Party	52%	51%	50%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	48%	49%	50%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,147 Australian voters, conducted from Jun. 18 to Jun. 20, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

PM Rudd Losing Appeal for Australians

admin — Tue, 18 May 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The popularity of Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd has taken a hard blow, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 50 per cent of respondents are dissatisfied with Rudd’s performance, up nine points since mid-April.

Satisfaction with opposition leader Tony Abbott remains stable at 45 per cent. 50 per cent of respondents say Rudd would make a better prime minister than Abbott, down six points in less than a month. Abbott is preferred by 32 per cent of respondents, up three points.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the Australian Labor Party (ALP) 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

On May 10, Abbott commented on the prime minister’s sagging popularity, declaring, "I think there is a developing crisis of confidence about Kevin Rudd’s capacity to govern effectively."

Polling Data

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Kevin Rudd is doing his job as prime minister?

	May 2	Apr. 18	Mar. 28
Satisfied	39%	50%	51%
Dissatisfied	50%	41%	39%
Uncommitted	11%	9%	10%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as leader of the opposition?

	May 2	Apr. 18	Mar. 28
Satisfied	45%	46%	44%
Dissatisfied	43%	40%	43%
Uncommitted	12%	14%	13%

Who do you think would make the better prime minister?

	May 2	Apr. 18	Mar. 28
Kevin Rudd (ALP)	50%	56%	59%
Tony Abbott (Lib.)	32%	29%	27%
Uncommitted	18%	15%	14%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,161 Australian voters, conducted from Apr. 30 to May 2, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Australian Coalition Pushes Labor to Second Place

admin — Sat, 15 May 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Australia’s governing party is now trailing its conservative opponents, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition Coalition of Liberals and National, up three points since mid-April.

The ruling Australian Labor Party (ALP) is now in second place with 35 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 10 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the Coalition a two-point lead over the ALP.

In a recent televised interview, Rudd defended what he called his "passion" for combating climate change, and accused interviewer Kerry O’Brien of misjudging his work at last year’s global climate conference in Copenhagen, saying, "[Climate change minister] Penny Wong and I sat up for three days and three nights with 20 leaders from around the world to try and frame a global agreement. Now, it might be easy for you to sit in 7.30 Report-land and say that was easy to do. Let me tell you, mate, it wasn’t."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	May 2	Apr. 18	Mar. 28
Coalition (Liberal / National)	43%	40%	38%
Australian Labor Party	35%	43%	43%
Australian Greens	10%	10%	12%
Others	12%	7%	7%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	May 2	Apr. 18	Mar. 28
Coalition (Liberal / National)	51%	46%	44%
Australian Labor Party	49%	54%	56%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,161 Australian voters, conducted from Apr. 30 to May 2, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Australians Want Immigrants in Specific Regions

admin — Fri, 07 May 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – People in Australia believe their government should provide incentives for new migrants to settle in specific regions of the country which need and can cope with higher populations, according to a poll by Essential Research. 55 per cent of respondents agree with this view.

Australia’s population is currently estimated at just over 22 million. The overall level of immigration to Australia grew from just over 30,000 in 1992 and 1993, to more than 177,000 in 2006 and 2007.

Last month, the Australian government suspended the processing of all new applications from asylum seekers from Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.

Australian immigration minister Chris Evans explained the situation, saying, "The decision has been made in the light of the changing circumstances in both Sri Lanka and Afghanistan. We have taken a consistently hard-line approach to people smuggling and today’s announcements will further strengthen the integrity of Australia’s immigration system."

Polling Data

Thinking about immigration, should the Government provide incentives for new migrants to settle in specific regions of Australia which need and can cope with higher populations?

Should provide incentives to settle in specific regions	55%
Should not provide incentives to settle in specific regions	30%
Don’t know	15%

Source: Essential Research
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,059 Australian adults, conducted from Apr. 12 to Apr. 18, 2010. No margin of error was provided.

Half of Australians Satisfied with PM Rudd

admin — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 15:01:02 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Public support for Kevin Rudd has remained relatively stable in Australia, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 50 per cent of respondents are satisfied with the prime minister’s performance.

Satisfaction with opposition leader Tony Abbott stands at 46 per cent, up two points since late March. 56 per cent of respondents say Rudd would make the better prime minister among the two, while 29 per cent pick Abbott.

Australia held a federal election in November 2007. Final results gave the ALP 85 seats in the 150-member House of Representatives. ALP leader Rudd was officially sworn in as prime minister in December, bringing an end to the 11-year tenure of Liberal leader John Howard as head of Australia’s government.

Earlier this month, Rudd established new guidelines to expedite access to health care services, saying, "This is the first time any government has delivered a guarantee that patients will receive surgery within a specific time and proposed such stringent targets to improve our elective surgery performance."

Polling Data

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Kevin Rudd is doing his job as prime minister?

	Apr. 18	Mar. 28	Mar. 14
Satisfied	50%	51%	48%
Dissatisfied	41%	39%	41%
Uncommitted	9%	10%	11%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Tony Abbott is doing his job as leader of the opposition?

	Apr. 18	Mar. 28	Mar. 14
Satisfied	46%	44%	47%
Dissatisfied	40%	43%	38%
Uncommitted	14%	13%	15%

Who do you think would make the better prime minister?

	Apr. 18	Mar. 28	Mar. 14
Kevin Rudd (ALP)	56%	59%	55%
Tony Abbott (Lib.)	29%	27%	30%
Uncommitted	15%	14%	15%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,150 Australian voters, conducted from Apr. 16 to Apr. 18, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Labor Party Stays Ahead in Australia

admin — Fri, 23 Apr 2010 15:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The governing Australian Labor Party (ALP) is holding on to the top spot in the country’s federal political scene, according to a poll by Newspoll published in The Australian. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for the ALP in the next election to the House of Representatives.

The Coalition of Liberals and National is second with 40 per cent, followed by the Australian Greens with 10 per cent. Australia’s preferential voting system—where electors indicate an order of predilection for each contender, and the ballots from smaller parties are re-distributed—gives the ALP an eight-point lead over the Coalition.

Last month, Abbott chided the government, saying, "Before the election, Mr. Rudd said that he would fix public hospitals by the middle of last year. It’s probably his biggest single broken promise."

Polling Data

If a federal election to the House of Representatives were held today, which one of the following would you vote for? If "Uncommitted", to which one of these do you have a leaning?

	Apr. 18	Mar. 28	Mar. 14
Australian Labor Party	43%	43%	39%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	40%	38%	41%
Australian Greens	10%	12%	11%
Others	7%	7%	9%

Two-Party Preferred Vote

	Apr. 18	Mar. 28	Mar. 14
Australian Labor Party	54%	56%	52%
Coalition (Liberal / National)	46%	44%	48%

Source: Newspoll / The Australian
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,150 Australian voters, conducted from Apr. 16 to Apr. 18, 2010. Margin of error is 3 per cent.