In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,005 Americans, three quarters of respondents (75%) have an “unfavorable” opinion of Iran—this is directionally higher than “Axis of Evil” nation North Korea (72%) and Afghanistan (69%), a country where the U.S. is currently fighting a war.

Canada—the largest trading partner with the U.S.—and Australia (83% and 82%, respectively) were given the highest proportion of favorable mentions by Americans.

Americans also continue to be highly suspicious of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with 70 per cent of respondents agreeing with the notion that the Government of Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. Only 11 per cent of Americans do not believe that Iran is pursuing a nuclear program, while one-in-five (19%) are not sure. These findings are consistent with a similar poll conducted by Vision Critical/Angus Reid Public Opinion at the start of 2010.

Despite these strong negative feelings and suspicions, Americans are still not in favor of any type of military engagement or intervention with Iran. In fact, the most frequent option Americans recommend to deal with Iran is engaging in diplomatic negotiations (30%, up slightly from 26% in January 2010), followed by economic sanctions (20%). Only five per cent of respondents would do nothing, claiming that Iran poses no threat to the world.

Across the country, 16 per cent of Americans would consent to launching military strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities, and seven per cent would authorize a full-scale invasion of Iran and removing the current government.

There are some striking differences when party allegiance is taken into consideration. More than half of Democrats would rely on negotiations and sanctions to deal with Iran (56%), while two-in-five Republicans (40%) would prefer to launch strikes or authorize an invasion. Independents are more likely to choose diplomacy and sanctions (52%) than air strikes or an invasion (19%).

Analysis

Over the last 12 months, American feelings toward Iraq and other “Axis of Evil” nations remain steadfastly negative. However, the most likely outcome in this area for 2011 is a movement to bring Iran, as well as other adversarial nations (such as North Korea) to the bargaining table.

While Americans evidently have strong negative feelings toward these nations, few are in favor of military action at this point. However, even less are in favor of doing nothing as Americans feel these nations do represent a threat to the country. Perhaps some of the diplomatic achievements of 2010 (such as the ratification of START 2, ongoing diplomacy with Iraq, and the South Korean trade pact) bode well for diplomacy in 2011.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

Methodology: From December 16 to December 17, 2010, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 1,005 American adults who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States.

The online survey of a representative national sample of 1,007 Americans asked respondents to say whether they agreed or disagreed with a statement made by Ahmadinejad earlier this month.

Ahmadinejad stated on Mar. 6: “The Sept. 11 incident was a big fabrication as a pretext for the campaign against terrorism and a prelude for staging an invasion against Afghanistan.”

Respondents were shown the entire statement, but were not informed that the Iranian President himself had voiced those views. In all, 62 per cent of respondents disagree with the statement, 26 per cent of respondents agree with it, and 12 per cent are undecided.

Republicans (80%) are more likely to reject the statement than Independents (66%) or Democrats (55%).

The 9/11 Commission

In all, two-thirds of Americans (67%) agree with the commission that investigated the events of Sept. 11, 2001, which concluded that an attack was carried out by 19 hijackers who were members of the al-Qaeda terrorist organization, led by Osama bin Laden. Only 12 per cent of respondents reject the commission’s findings, and one-in-five Americans (21%) are undecided.

Four-in-five Republicans (80%) stand by the commission’s findings, while two-thirds of Democrats (66%) and Independents (65) concur.

Conspiracy Theories

The survey asked respondents whether four things that have been said and written about the events of 9/11 are actually credible. Just 15 per cent of respondents think the collapse of the World Trade Center was the result of a controlled demolition, and the same proportion believe that United Airlines Flight 93, which crashed in Pennsylvania, was shot down.

In addition, 13 per cent of respondents think no airplane actually crashed at the Pentagon on Sept. 11, and six per cent claim that no airplanes crashed into the World Trade Center at all.

Analysis

A majority of Americans are on the same side when it comes to 9/11, stating that the event was not a fabrication, that the conclusions of the 9/11 commission are correct, and that the conspiracy theories are not credible.

While one-in-four Americans believe 9/11 was a fabrication designed to facilitate the campaign against terrorism, the proportion of respondents who openly reject the conclusions of the 9/11 commission—and who find the conspiracy theories as credible—is far lower.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs
+604 647 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. In June 2005, former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s presidential election in a run-off over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with 61.6 per cent of all cast ballots.

In December 2006 and March 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions against Iran after it failed to stop uranium enrichment—a process needed both to make nuclear weapons and produce electricity.

Last year, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) tendered a proposal, which called on the Iranian government to transfer low-enriched uranium abroad for processing to turn it into fuel-making uranium.

On Jan. 4, U.S. state secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton discussed the nature of the proposal, saying, "We’ve avoided using the term ‘deadline’ ourselves. That’s not a term that we have used because we want to keep the door to dialogue open."

On Jan. 5, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ramin Mehman-Parast declared: "We also agree with Clinton’s view. We have believed that setting any deadline by either parties (involved in nuclear talks) would be meaningless and valueless."

Polling Data

From what you have seen, read or heard, do you agree or disagree with the following statement? – "The Government of Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons."

Source: Angus Reid Public Opinion 
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,019 Canadian adults, 1,001 American adults, and 2,005 British adults, conducted on Jan. 5 and Jan. 6, 2010. Margins of error range from 2.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

Complete Poll (PDF)

A majority of respondents in the United States, Britain and Canada believe Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, but respondents are divided on how to approach the issue at this time, a new three-country Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of representative national samples also found that three-in-four respondents in each one of the countries surveyed (79% in Britain, 78% in the U.S. and 74% in Canada) hold an unfavourable opinion of Iran.

The poll was conducted after Iran failed to agree to a proposal by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which called on Iran to transfer low-enriched uranium abroad for processing to turn it into fuel-making uranium.

Two-thirds of respondents in Canada (66%) believe the Government of Iran is attempting to develop nuclear weapons. The sentiment is echoed by 63 per cent of Britons, and 71 per cent of Americans.

Respondents were provided with five possible scenarios to deal with Iran at this time. Only five per cent of Britons, four per cent of Americans and four per cent of Canadians believe Iran poses no threat to the world and nothing should be done.

Half of Britons (52%) and two-in-five Canadians (44%) would engage Iran in direct diplomatic negotiations, a view shared by just 26 per cent of Americans.

Imposing economic sanctions against Iran is supported by roughly the same proportion of respondents in each one of the three countries surveyed (21% in the U.S., and 18% in both Britain and Canada).

In the U.S., 17 per cent of respondents would launch military strikes to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. Eleven per cent of Canadians and six per cent of Britons agree with this course of action.

Finally, nine per cent of Americans, six per cent of Canadians and five per cent of Britons would authorize a full-scale invasion of Iran to remove the current government.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Public Affairs
+604 647 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Andy Morris, Research Director, London
+ 44-203-178-3952
andy.morris@angus-reid.com

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Few people in
Iran express confidence in
the ability of United States
president Barack Obama to manage global affairs, according to a poll by World
Public Opinion and the University
of Maryland. 57 per cent
of respondents say they have no confidence at all in Obama.

In 2008, 72 per cent of respondents felt
the same way about the previous U.S.
president, George W. Bush.

After being branded as part of an
"axis of evil" by then U.S.
president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear
program aims to produce energy, not weapons. Iran has been the target of three
sets of United Nations (UN) sanctions for refusing to suspend
uranium-enrichment work. 62 per cent of respondents favour Iran and the U.S. restoring diplomatic
relations.

On Jun. 12, Iranians voted in presidential
elections. Official results gave incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a victory with
62.63 per cent of the vote, followed by reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi
with 33.75 per cent. The election was highly contested by the opposition, who
cried foul. Millions of protesters continue to call for a new ballot.

On Sept. 25, Obama revealed that his
government is aware that Iran
has been developing a second uranium enrichment facility near the holy city of Qom without informing the
UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency.

On Sept. 27, U.S. defence secretary Robert Gates
commented on the matter, saying, "The Iranians are in a very bad spot now
because of this deception, in terms of all of the great powers. And there
obviously is the opportunity for severe additional sanctions."

Polling Data

To what degree do you favour or oppose Iran and the United States restoring diplomatic
relations?

How much confidence do you have in U.S.
President Barack Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs? (2009)

How much confidence do you have in U.S.
President George W. Bush to do the right thing regarding world affairs? (2008)

Source: worldpublicopinion.org / Program on
International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland
Methodology: telephone interviews with 1,003 Iranian adults, conducted from Aug.
27 to Sept. 10, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Also, 74 per cent of respondents believe the U.S. government should not directly intervene in the situation in Iran, while 24 per cent believe the federal administration should openly support the demonstrators who are protesting the election.

Iran’s presidential election took place on Jun. 12. Official results gave incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a victory with 62.63 per cent of the vote, followed by reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi with 33.75 per cent.

Mousavi rejected the published numbers, calling them a "dangerous charade." Thousands of Mousavi supporters, wearing green clothes, have taken to the streets to protest the outcome since the day after the election. The demonstrations have spread to practically all major cities.

Iran’s true head of state—the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—first called the re-election of Ahmadinejad a "massive success" and a "divine blessing", but later agreed to a partial recount of the vote. On Jun. 20, Khamenei said that public demonstrations are "not acceptable" and that opposition leaders would be "held responsible for chaos" if they fail to end the protests.

On Jun. 26, U.S. president Barack Obama discussed the situation in Iran, saying, "The violence perpetrated against [the demonstrators] is outrageous. In spite of the government’s efforts to keep the world from bearing witness to that violence, we see it and we condemn it."

Polling Data

Do you think the results of the recent election that were released by the Iranian government were an accurate reflection of how Iranians voted, or do you think those results were a fraud and an attempt by the government to steal the election?

Do you think the U.S. government should openly support the demonstrators who are protesting the recent election in that country, or do you think the U.S. should not directly intervene in the situation in Iran?

Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,026 American adults, conducted from Jun. 26 to Jun. 28, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Iran’s presidential election took place on Jun. 12. Official results gave incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a victory with 62.63 per cent of the vote, followed by reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi with 33.75 per cent.

Mousavi rejected the published numbers, calling them a "dangerous charade." Thousands of Mousavi supporters, wearing green clothes, have taken to the streets to protest the outcome since the day after the election. The demonstrations have spread to practically all major cities.

Iran’s true head of state—the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei—first called the re-election of Ahmadinejad a "massive success" and a "divine blessing", but later agreed to a partial recount of the vote. On Jun. 20, Khamenei said that public demonstrations are "not acceptable" and that opposition leaders would be "held responsible for chaos" if they fail to end the protests.

On Jun. 22, Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper issued a statement, which read: "The [Iranian] regime has chosen to use brute force and intimidation in responding to peaceful opposition regarding legitimate and serious allegations of electoral fraud. Basic human rights, including freedom of assembly and freedom of expression, are being ignored."

Polling Data

From what you have seen, read or heard, which of the following statements comes closest to your own point of view of the most recent presidential election in Iran?

Source: Angus Reid Strategies
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,009 Canadian adults, conducted on Jun. 22 and Jun. 23, 2009. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Complete Poll (PDF)

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. In June 2005, former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s presidential election in a run-off over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with 61.6 per cent of all cast ballots.

In December 2006 and March 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions against Iran after it failed to stop uranium enrichment—a process needed both to make nuclear weapons and produce electricity.

In October 2007, Bush announced a new set of unilateral sanctions against Iran, which include the designations of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "proliferator of weapons of mass destruction" and of the elite Quds Force as a "supporter of terrorism." The resolution has significant economic implications for Iran.

Iran’s presidential election took place on Jun. 12. Official results gave incumbent Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a victory with 62.63 per cent of the vote, followed by reformist candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi with 33.75 per cent.

Mousavi rejected the published numbers, calling them a "dangerous charade." Thousands of Mousavi supporters, wearing green clothes, have taken to the streets to protest the outcome since the day after the election. The demonstrations have spread to practically all major cities.

On Jun. 18, Israeli foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman said that Israel wants a policy change in Iran regardless of who is head of government, and added that Iran "is much more dangerous" than North Korea, whose regime has recently tested nuclear weapons.

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities if international efforts fail to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons?

Source: Hebrew University
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 606 Israeli adults, conducted from May 24 to Jun. 3, 2009. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.

Conversely, 40 per cent of respondents would wait until Iran makes significant changes in its policies towards other countries before engaging in diplomatic talks.

In addition, 60 per cent of respondents believe Iran poses a long-term threat to the U.S., 22 per cent think the country poses an immediate threat, and 19 per cent say it does not pose a threat at all.

After being branded as part of an "axis of evil" by then U.S. president George W. Bush in January 2002, Iran has contended that its nuclear program aims to produce energy, not weapons. In June 2005, former Tehran mayor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won Iran’s presidential election in a run-off over Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani with 61.6 per cent of all cast ballots.

In December 2006 and March 2007, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) imposed sanctions against Iran after it failed to stop uranium enrichment—a process needed both to make nuclear weapons and produce electricity.

In October 2007, Bush announced a new set of unilateral sanctions against Iran, which include the designations of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as a "proliferator of weapons of mass destruction" and of the elite Quds Force as a "supporter of terrorism." The resolution has significant economic implications for Iran.

In American elections, candidates require 270 votes in the Electoral College to win the White House. In November 2008, Democratic nominee Barack Obama secured a majority of electoral votes, defeating Republican candidate John McCain. On Jan. 20, Obama became the first African American president in U.S. history. Bush—a Republican—served two four-year terms.

Also in January, Obama discussed his views on Iran, saying, "If countries like Iran are willing to unclench their fist, they will find an extended hand from us. It is very important for us to make sure that we are using all the tools of U.S. power, including diplomacy, in our relationship with Iran."

Earlier this month, in an interview with Germany’s Der Spiegel, Ahmadinejad discussed his views on the new American president, saying, "We speak very respectfully of Barack Obama. But we are realists. We want to see real changes. In this connection, we are also interested in helping correct a faulty policy in Afghanistan. (…) Can it be that America has 5,400 nuclear warheads and Germany has none? And that we are not even permitted to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear energy? Our logic is completely clear: equal rights for all."

Polling Data

Do you think Obama administration officials should hold diplomatic talks with the leaders of Iran in the next few weeks, or should they wait to hold diplomatic talks with Iran until that country makes significant changes in its policies towards other countries?

Which comes closest to your view?

Source: Opinion Research Corporation / CNN
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,023 American adults, conducted from Apr. 3 to Apr. 5, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.