People in the United States, Canada and Britain have reacted with skepticism to the announcement of high level talks between Israel and the Palestinians, a new Angus Reid Public Opinion poll has found.

The online survey of representative national samples also found that Britons and Canadians are more likely to regard their respective prime ministers as pro-Israel, while Americans are slightly more likely to believe that their head of state sympathizes with the Palestinians.

Sympathies

A large proportion of respondents in the three countries do not express sympathy for either of the two sides in the Middle East dispute. Americans favour Israel over the Palestinians (27% to 5%), while Britons pick the Palestinians ahead of Israel (19% to 10%). Canadians are evenly divided in their assessment (13% for Israel; 13% for the Palestinians).

Respondents in the three countries were also asked about the sympathies of their respective heads of government. Canadians clearly think of Stephen Harper as pro-Israel (36%) and Britons feel the same way about David Cameron (21%). In the United States, 18 per cent of respondents think Barack Obama sympathizes more with the Palestinians, while 15 per cent believe he is more considerate to the Israelis.

The Negotiations

Respondents in the three countries express doubts about the direct negotiations towards a peace agreement that have begun between Israel and the Palestinians. Three-in-four Canadians (79%) and Britons (78%) and two thirds of Americans (68%) say they are “not too confident” or “not confident at all” that the talks will be successful.

Creation of a New State

Since April, the proportion of respondents in the three countries who support the creation of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and Gaza Strip living side-by-side with Israel has increased markedly. More than half of Britons (58%, +8) and Canadians (54%, +7) support this course of action, along with two-in-five Americans (45%, +7). It is important to note that at least one-in-three respondents in each country are undecided.

A Solution to the Conflict

At least one third of respondents in the three countries (38% in the U.S., 34% in Britain and 41% in Canada) believe that a solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians will never be reached. Less than one-in-five expect a solution in the next five years (USA19%, BRI 17%, CAN 14%).

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

Hamas is second with 26 per cent. 18 per cent of respondents remain undecided.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas has extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—indefinitely. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. Abbas has said he does not intend to seek a new term in office in the next presidential election, which has not yet been scheduled.

Both factions had agreed to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2010, but the actual timing of the new ballot remains uncertain. In May, Abbas swore in a new government that does not include members of Hamas. Fayyad remained in his post as prime minister.

On Jun. 11, Fayyad announced that the government has "decided to delay the [municipal] elections." Government officials later confirmed that Abbas’s administration wants to postpone the ballot—originally scheduled for Jul. 17—"to give a new room for efforts to achieve reconciliation" between Fatah and Hamas.

Polling Data

If a parliamentary election were to take place today, which list would you vote for?

Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh is second with 39 per cent.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas has extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—indefinitely. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. Abbas has said he does not intend to seek a new term in office in the next presidential election, which has not yet been scheduled.

On Jun. 20, Abbas revealed his desire to visit Gaza for the first time since the Hamas takeover, saying, "I ask myself this question 100 times every day; I have always thought of going there."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas were nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh were nominated by Hamas, who would you vote for?

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing administration of the Palestinian Authority, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza.

In January 2008, Israel completely sealed off its borders with Gaza. This followed insistent launching of rockets into Israel by Hamas. The border closure has left Gaza isolated. It is difficult to receive cargo of all types, including humanitarian aid.

On May 31, Israel raided a flotilla of six ships occupied mostly by Turkish, pro-Palestinian citizens who were attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. Nine people died in the confrontation, and dozens more were detained and later deported by Israel. The raid—which will be subject to various investigations—sparked widespread condemnation of Israel and brought the Gaza blockade under the spotlight. It also soured relations between Turkey and Israel.

On Jun. 15, upon Israel announcing it would set up a special committee to investigate the events on the raided ships, Turkish foreign minister Ahmet Davutoglu declared: "We have no trust at all that Israel [can conduct] an objective investigation."

Polling Data

Which regional country is the most supportive of the Palestinians and their cause?

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing administration of the Palestinian Authority, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza.

In January 2008, Israel completely sealed off its borders with Gaza. This followed insistent launching of rockets into Israel by Hamas. The border closure has left Gaza isolated. It is difficult to receive cargo of all types, including humanitarian aid.

On May 31, Israel raided a flotilla of six ships occupied mostly by Turkish, pro-Palestinian citizens who were attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza. Nine people died in the confrontation, and dozens more were detained and later deported by Israel. The raid—which will be subject to various investigations—sparked widespread condemnation of Israel and brought the Gaza blockade under the spotlight.

Israeli lawmakers are currently studying the possibility of easing the blockade, by allowing more products to come into Gaza.

On Jun. 16, European Union (EU) high representative for foreign policy Catherine Ashton declared: "The suffering of Gaza doesn’t make Israel more secure. (…) This cannot go on, things must change."

Polling Data

Should the blockade on Gaza be lifted?

The former British mandate of Palestine was instituted at the end of World War I, to oversee a territory in the Middle East that formerly belonged to the Ottoman Empire. After the end of World War II and the Nazi holocaust, the Zionist movement succeeded in establishing an internationally recognized homeland. In November 1947, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly passed a resolution calling for the formation of a Jewish state.

In 1948, the British government withdrew from the mandate and the state of Israel was created in roughly 15,000 square kilometres of the mandate’s land, with the remaining areas split under the control of Egypt and Transjordan. Since then, the region has seen constant disagreement between Israel and the Palestinians, represented for decades by the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). Wars broke out in the region in the second half of the 20th Century, involving Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Egypt.

Around 750,000 Palestinians fled or were forced to leave their territory during the 1948 Arab-Israeli war. The "right of return"—under which Palestinians aim to re-occupy their homes in Israel—has always been a questionable point in peace negotiations. Hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war and their descendants still live in shantytown camps run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), next to Gaza cities and towns.

During the six-day war in 1967, Israel gained control of the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, eastern Jerusalem, and the Golan Heights. About 300,000 Israelis currently live in more than 100 Jewish settlements in the West Bank, along with about 2.5 million Palestinians.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas is currently heading the Palestinian Authority from the West Bank, endorsed by Israel and most of the Western international community. Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas has become the de-facto leader in the Gaza Strip.

The administration headed by U.S. president Barack Obama has urged the Israeli government to cease all settlement activity in order to break a deadlock in peace negotiations with the Palestinians. Earlier this year, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu allowed for the construction of some 900 new settlements in occupied territory, citing the need to understand the "natural growth" of the Israeli population living in the area.

On Apr. 13, Obama discussed the situation, saying, "The Israeli people, through their government, and the Palestinian people, through the Palestinian Authority, as well as other Arab states may say to themselves: ‘We are not prepared to resolve these issues no matter how much pressure the United States brings to bear’. (…) It’s going to take time, and progress will be halting. And there will be frustrations."

Polling Data

When do you expect a solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians?

Complete Poll (PDF)

Hamas is far behind with 28 per cent. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for other parties or remain undecided.

Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In 2008, Abbas extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. Abbas has said he does not intend to seek a new term in office in the next presidential election, which is tentatively scheduled for Jun. 28.

On Mar. 11, Haniyeh accused the Arab League of siding with Israel over a recent settlement expansion, saying, "The decision encouraged Zionists to push ahead their settlement expansion in the West Bank. The Israeli plan to build hundreds of homes whilst the United States vice-president Joe Biden is on a visit to the region truly shows American cover to such a settlement plan."

Polling Data

If a parliamentary election were to take place today, which list would you vote for?

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas recently extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah. Abbas has said he does not intend to seek a new term in office in the next presidential election, which is tentatively scheduled for Jun. 28.

Earlier this month, Abbas blamed Iran for hampering unity talks, saying, "Iran doesn’t want Hamas to sign the Cairo reconciliation document. (…) The Palestinians should be free from Iranian tutelage."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas were nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh were nominated by Hamas, who would you vote for?

Fatah leader Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

In 2008, Abbas extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.

Both factions had agreed to hold joint presidential and parliamentary elections in January 2010, but the actual timing of the new ballot is uncertain. In May 2009, Abbas swore in a new government that does not include members of Hamas. Fayyad remained in his post as prime minister.

On Nov. 12, Palestinian election officials recommended suspending the January 2010 elections for the time being, saying that a ballot would only deepen the divide between Gaza and the West Bank.

On Dec. 16, the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO)’s Central Council extended Abbas’s term in office indefinitely.

Last month, Abbas appointed Leila Ghannam as governor of Ramallah. It is the first time a woman holds a position of Palestinian governor.

On Jan. 31, Ghannam commented on her appointment, saying, "I was appointed to the position because of the president’s belief in my abilities, and not because I’m a woman. It is proof that our leader Abu-Mazen [Abbas] does not differentiate between men and women, and he chooses according to skill."

Polling Data

Do you support or oppose the stay of Mr. Mahmoud Abbas in his office as President of the Palestinian Authority up until new presidential elections are held?

Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas is a distant second with 38 per cent.

Abbas won the January 2005 presidential ballot in the Palestinian Territories with 62.32 per cent of all cast ballots. In January 2006, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council election, securing 74 of the 112 seats at stake. Haniyeh officially took over as prime minister in March. The Israeli government believes Hamas is directly responsible for the deaths of 377 citizens in a variety of attacks, which include dozens of suicide bombings.

In February 2007, Hamas and Fatah leaders reached an accord which set the guidelines for a power-sharing Palestinian administration, headed by Hamas. In June, amid a wave of violent clashes between Hamas and Fatah factions, Hamas militants seized control of Gaza. Abbas issued a decree to form a 12-member emergency government based in the West Bank and expelled Hamas from the administration. Fatah member Salam Fayyad was appointed as prime minister by Abbas.

Abbas recently extended his tenure—which was supposed to end in January 2009—until 2010. The extension is part of an Egypt-sponsored plan to foster reconciliation between Hamas and Fatah.

On Dec. 15, Abbas reiterated his decision to step down, saying, "I will not race again for presidency in any upcoming presidential elections, and I have other measures that will be announced later on time."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were to take place today, and Mahmoud Abbas were nominated by Fatah and Ismail Haniyeh were nominated by Hamas, who would you vote for?

Source: Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,200 Palestinian adults in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, conducted from Dec. 10 to Dec. 12, 2009. Margin of error is 3 per cent.