Mario Canseco – The year 2010 promises to be particularly important for Slovakia. The country has effectively enacted a power shift after last month’s legislative election, and is just weeks away from a referendum that could significantly alter the way national lawmakers are elected.

In 2006, Robert Fico led the Direction-Social Democracy (Smer) party to a first place finish in the legislative election with 29.14 per cent of the vote and 50 seats. Fico later invited the Slovak National Party (SNS) and the People’s Party-Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (LS-HZDS) to form a government. Fico’s administration was successful in placing the country in a position to adopt the euro in 2009, but was nevertheless criticized over the presence of the SNS—branded as extremist for its stance on minorities—as well as diplomatic rifts with Hungary over citizenship and immigration issues.

Smer topped every single voting intention poll released from mid-2006 to mid-2010, and it was clear that the opposition parties would be unable to tackle Fico’s popularity unless they worked together. In December 2009, representatives from six parties—the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU), the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH), the Party of the Hungarian Coalition (SMK), Bridge (Most-Hid), Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), and the Civil Conservative Party (OKS)—met to establish the guidelines for electoral cooperation.

The opposition deal was not as comprehensive as Sweden’s centre-right alliance, but aimed at making the most of Slovakia’s proportional representation system. The goal was to control more seats than Fico’s three-party coalition, even if the most popular opposition party—the SDKU—finished a distant second on election day. In February, former prime minister Mikulas Dzurinda stepped down as SDKU leader—following a public spat with Fico over electoral campaign contributions—and was replaced by Iveta Radicova, who was defeated by incumbent Ivan Gasparovic in the run-off to elect the country’s largely ceremonial president in 2009.

When all ballots from the Jun. 12 election were tallied, Smer finished in first place with 34.79 per cent of the vote and 62 seats. The ruling party had increased its share of the vote by more than five per cent and secured 12 more seats than in 2006. Still, due to the poor showing of its coalition partners, Fico’s days as head of government were numbered. The SNS won only nine seats and the LS-HZDS finished below the five per cent threshold to elect members.

The election was not a victory for the SDKU, which garnered only 15.42 per cent of the vote and 28 seats—both lower than in 2006. However, the party could count on the support of SaS, the KDH and Most-Hid to form a stable coalition administration, controlling 79 of the 150 seats in the National Council.

The real winner of the election was SaS, which emerged from the fringes to become the third most popular political force in the country. The party, headed by renowned economist Richard Sulik, openly supports the legalization of same-sex marriage and the decriminalization of marijuana. SaS also connected with voters with its discussions on bringing democracy closer to the people and away from the elites.

The first order of business after the election was to validate the signatures of a referendum drive initiated by SaS last year. The vote, which has been scheduled for Sept. 18, will ask Slovaks to say "Yes" or "No" to six different questions related to elections, expenditures and taxation. The biggest changes would be a reduction in the number of sitting lawmakers in the National Council from 150 to 100 by 2014, and a proposal to allow Slovaks to cast ballots over the Internet in national elections.

Since the "Velvet Divorce", Slovakia has held six referendums and only one—the 2003 vote on accession to the European Union (EU)—was declared valid when more than half of voters took part. Voter turnout in the 2010 legislative election was 58.83 per cent, four points higher than in 2006. SaS has been credited with using the Internet effectively to generate interest in politics and engage with younger Slovaks. These strategies will be essential in ensuring a successful referendum in September, which could clearly position SaS as a strong contender for years to come.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – People in Sweden are turning their backs on the idea of joining the eurozone, and with a legislative election due in September, politicians are steering clear of any discussions on whether the krona should be abandoned.

A survey concluded on the first day of June finds that three-in-five Swedes (61%) are opposed to their country’s adoption of the euro as the national currency. The findings show a 17-point increase in the anti-euro camp since May 2009. In fact, as recently as December 2009, it seemed like a new referendum on the euro would be tightly contested.

Sweden is one of three European Union (EU) members—along with Britain and Denmark—that did not adopt the euro in January 2002. In September 2003, 56 per cent of Swedish voters rejected the euro in a nationwide referendum.

Neither of the two competing factions in Sweden is eager to jump into the pro-euro bandwagon, particularly after the recent Greek crisis. Swedish Prime Minister and Moderate Rally Party (M) leader Fredrik Reinfeldft was particularly critical of the European Commission’s plan to review the budgets of all member states.

A recent survey in Poland also showed skepticism about the euro, but nowhere near the level of outright rejection that is manifest in Britain.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – A new poll suggests that Spain’s opposition conservative Popular Party (PP) would defeat the governing Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) in the next general election. In addition, the PP has found strength in areas of the European country that have historically voted left, including five autonomous communities where it currently sits in opposition.

Spain’s left-leaning government is in deep trouble over the sorry state of the economy, with the PSOE’s popularity and that of its leader, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, at a low point. The survey shows that the PP would secure 45.6 per cent of the vote in the next legislative election, a 10-point lead over the PSOE. At this point, PSOE appears to have lost the support of one-in-six of the voters it had in the 2008 election, a drop that would certainly amount to a defeat in a political system dominated by two main parties.

At the local level, the PP stands to win absolute majorities in many of Spain’s 17 autonomous communities, including the PSOE strongholds of Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha. The numbers show that the PSOE would require a big surge in support not only at the national level, but also to retain control of the local legislatures.

Spain’s unemployment rate, at almost 20 per cent, is the highest in the European Union (EU) after Latvia’s. The country was greatly affected by the financial meltdown triggered by the collapse of the American housing market, and suffered its own real-estate-bubble burst at the end of 2008.

PP leader Mariano Rajoy and his party have been proactive in reaching out to new voters while the PSOE’s strength vanishes. Their strategy has paid off. The Spanish economy is in shambles, and Zapatero has been at the helm during the unravelling disaster. Moreover, the sitting government is implementing unpopular shock measures to stop the bleeding, which has only led to more public condemnation.

Unless a miraculous rebound happens, Rajoy—who had been written off after losing two consecutive elections to Zapatero—will become President of the Government in 2012.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The new governing party in Hungary begins its tenure with overwhelming popularity, but amidst growing concerns that the country may be the next one to be affected by a severe financial crisis.

A poll conducted in May 2010 finds the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) with the support of 68 per cent of decided voters—well ahead of the other parties represented in the National Assembly. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) is a distant second with 15 per cent, followed by the far-right Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) with 14 per cent, and the environmentalist Politics Can Be Different (LMP) with three per cent.

The outcome of this year’s legislative election in Hungary was never in doubt. The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) had fallen out of favour with the population in September 2006, when then Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany was caught on tape acknowledging that his government had "lied throughout the past one and a half or two years" about the state of the country’s economy. The public outcry led to a surge in support for Fidesz, which never halted.

Hungary’s electoral system calls for a first round in legislative elections, where a shortlist of all the candidates who receive more than 15 per cent of the vote is created. In the second round, the actual winner is chosen from these candidates. For the first round to be valid, more than 50 per cent of registered voters must take part. In the second round, the threshold is reduced to 25 per cent.

The first round of the election—held on Apr. 11—placed Fidesz with 206 overall seats. Before the second round took place, a majority of Hungarians had voiced support for the party to control two-thirds of the National Assembly. Their wish came true on Apr. 25, when Fidesz reached the 262-seat plateau.

While Fidesz currently has no rival in the political arena, the government may see its support erode on account of its handling of the economy. Hungary was supposed to adopt the euro in 2014, but recent setbacks may push the adoption date further. Fidesz vice-chairman Lajos Kosa recently acknowledged that the country’s financial standing is "much worse" than expected, and government spokesman Peter Szijjarto accused the previous government of "falsifying data."

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – For the past four years, the governing Direction-Social Democracy (Smer) party has been the clear favourite in the Slovak Republic. As the legislative election draws near, the party maintains a large advantage over its rivals, but will need to build a coalition again in order to form the government.

In May 2010, 35.5 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the party led by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. However, Smer’s current coalition partners are not doing as well as they did in 2006. The Slovak National Party (SNS) is at 6.1 per cent and the People’s Party-Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (LS-HZDS) is at 5.1 per cent. If these numbers replicate on election day, the coalition would control 75 of the 150 seats in the National Council—a scenario that would evoke the Czech Republic’s stalemate of 2006.

Smer’s campaign has devoted ample time to warn voters of a right-wing coalition encompassing the Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU), the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) and the Party of the Hungarian Coalition (SMK). At this point, the three parties are at 28.2 per cent—nowhere near the desired level of support to actually challenge the ruling group.

In Slovakia, lawmakers are elected to the National Council through proportional representation with a five per cent threshold. Smer is doing better than it did in 2006 (29.1% and 50 seats), but the chances of keeping the coalition alive hinder on the LS-HZDS actually reaching five per cent on the Jun. 12 ballot.

The other possibility for Fico would be to rely on the backing of the Freedom and Solidarity (SaS), which at 13.3 per cent would become the third most popular party in the country. However, Fico has criticized the party’s stance on social issues, particularly its support for same-sex marriage and the legalization of marijuana.

The SMK has not openly ruled out a post-election collaboration with Smer, and may well become the kingmaker in the event of a tie or a drop in support for the LS-HZDS.

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – While most of the recent discussions related to Poland’s political life have centred on the upcoming presidential election, the country has to make a major decision related to the adoption of the euro. Last month, there was little consensus on whether replacing the zloty should happen soon.

In April 2010, two-in-five Poles (41%) said they supported the adoption of the euro as the national currency, while half (49%) voiced opposition. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk had established 2015 as the target date for the euro to replace the zloty.

The reticence from Poles may come from two factors. A weaker zloty allowed Poland to avoid recession, and made it the only member of the European Union (EU) whose economy expanded in 2009. Now, with the Greek crisis fresh in the minds of respondents, the idea of the country joining the eurozone is not palatable.

Poland’s main politicians seem concerned about the effect the single currency may have on the country. While the anti-euro stance of former prime minister and Law and Justice Party (PiS) presidential candidate Jaroslaw Kaczynski is well documented, the frontrunner in the race—Civic Platform (PO) contender Bronislaw Komorowski—intends to postpone the country’s adoption of the euro until the "European economy expands faster than Poland."

The presidential election in Poland is scheduled for Jun. 20. Komorowski may have enough support to secure a first round victory.

The euro has been used in 12 EU countries since January 2002. At the time, Britain, Denmark and Sweden were the only EU members that did not adopt the currency. Slovenia began using the euro in 2007, Cyprus and Malta in 2008, and Slovakia in 2009.

A survey in Britain found that only nine per cent of respondents would vote in favour of the adoption of the euro.