Angus Reid Public Opinion - Angela Merkel

Germans Are Not Thrilled with New Coalition

admin — Thu, 12 Aug 2010 15:01:01 +0000

Gabriela Perdomo – She used to complain that the alliance with the left-leaning Social Democratic Party (SPD) made things insufferably slow and inefficient. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel must be missing the former junior partner in the Grand Coalition these days.

The SPD was not invited to form a government with Merkel’s Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its associate Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) following last September’s election to the Federal Diet. Though the SPD had joined the previous CDU-CSU government, this time Merkel extended her hand to the pro-business and right-leaning Free Democratic Party (FDP), thinking that its support would be crucial in liberalizing Germany’s economy and introducing fiscal and labour reforms opposed by the SPD.

The new team has not been getting along as well as expected. Merkel and FDP leader Guido Westerwelle, who is also the foreign minister, have locked horns over a number of issues, many times in public. Westerwelle has been aggressive in pushing for increased tax cuts, for instance, while making the chancellor rebuke that his approach is too much too soon. It has become evident that Merkel is at odds with a junior partner that might be too ideological for her more pragmatic style of governing.

Meanwhile, the public is not pleased at all. For a number of reasons, including the government’s much-criticized approach to Greece’s debt crisis earlier this year, many people are discontent with Merkel’s administration. The new alliance with the FDP might also bare some blame.

The FDP got 14.6 per cent of the vote in the last legislative election, securing 93 seats in the Diet. The most recent poll by FG Wahlen shows a dramatic drop in support since, placing the FDP dead last in voting intention with only five per cent. If an election were held today, the FDP would have no chance getting an invitation to form a government.

Support for the CDU-CSU duo remains relatively stable, always around or just under the 33.8 per cent achieved in the past election. But the FDP drop is big enough to turn some opposition parties into real threats, especially the SDP and the Green Party (Grune).

The same FG Wahlen poll has the SDP almost tied with Merkel’s conservatives at 32 per cent and the Greens at 15 per cent—their share of the vote in September was 23 per cent and 10.7 per cent, respectively. Another survey by Forsa released in late July paints an even more striking picture, with the SDP at 28 per cent, and the Greens at 19 per cent.

The SPD and the Greens once held the reins of the German Diet, from 1998 to 2005, in a coalition administration. Their newfound strength will without a doubt re-ignite memories of their time in power, and speculation over their possible comeback as a team.

The renewed spotlight on the SPD and the Greens also begs a clarification. Both parties are far from being completely on the left of the political spectrum. The SDP—now under the leadership of Sigmar Gabriel—and the Greens—under co-chairs Cem Özdemir and Claudia Roth—have recently governed in local and federal coalitions with right-leaning parties.

In a local election in Saarland in 2009, the Greens rejected forming a government with the SPD and the Left Party (Linke) to favour an alliance with the CDU and the Free Democrats. It was a first in German local politics, and a reminder that the Greens have been moving to the right, or at least the centre, over the past years.

For now, the rise of the opposition might have more to do with a disgruntled electorate affected by a slow economic recovery than with a bright political comeback of the centre-left. But it might also be a sign that Germans are second-guessing their decision to support a government that had explicitly offered a shift to the right—some people might just be missing the centre.

Merkels Parties Stuck in the Low 30s in Germany

admin — Sat, 07 Aug 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Germany’s governing conservative parties retain a third of the population’s following, according to a poll by FG Wahlen released by ZDF. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) or its associate Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next election to the Federal Diet, unchanged since mid-June.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is a close second with 32 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with 15 per cent, the Left Party (Linke) with 10 per cent, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP)—junior partner in the governing coalition—with five per cent.

In November 2005, CDU leader Angela Merkel was sworn in as Germany’s first female head of government following a federal election. Her "Grand Coalition" administration featured members of the CDU, CSU and SPD.

In September 2009, German voters participated in a new federal election. Final results gave the CDU-CSU 33.8 per cent of the vote and 239 seats, followed by the SPD with 23 per cent and 146 mandates. This time, Merkel invited the FDP to form a government. FDP leader Guido Westerwelle serves as foreign minister.

On Aug. 4, Westerwelle spoke of an increasing need for Germany to lure skilled immigrants, saying, "It is of course right that we intelligently invite citizens to work in our country who are positive for us and for our development."

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next federal election?

	Jul. 15	Jun. 17	Jun. 2
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	33%	33%	34%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	32%	31%	29%
Green Party (Grune)	15%	15%	15%
Left Party (Linke)	10%	10%	10%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	5%	5%	5%

Source: FG Wahlen / ZDF
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,178 German adults, conducted from Jul. 13 to Jul. 15, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

German Conservatives Slip Below 30% Mark

admin — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Support for the governing Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) is slightly slipping in Germany, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern and RTL. 29 per cent of respondents would vote for either party in the next election to the Federal Diet, down one point since mid-July.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is second with 28 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with 19 per cent, the Left Party (Linke) with 11 per cent, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP)—junior partner in the governing coalition—with five per cent.

On Jul. 21, Merkel answered to reporters’ questions on whether she is considering stepping down given her government’s sagging popularity, saying, "Right now it’s fun for me, and we’ll leave it at that. (…) I decide step by step, and at the moment you can be quite certain that you will see me again after the vacation."

Polling Data

What party would you support in Germany’s next federal election?

	Jul. 23	Jul. 16	Jun. 25
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	29%	30%	32%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	28%	28%	27%
Green Party (Grune)	19%	19%	18%
Left Party (Linke)	11%	11%	11%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	5%	4%	4%

Source: Forsa / Stern / RTL
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,502 German adults, conducted from Jul. 19 to Jul. 23, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Merkels Parties Keep Narrow Lead in Germany

admin — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Germany’s governing conservative parties are only slightly ahead in popularity, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern and RTL. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its associate Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next election to the Federal Diet, down two points since late June.

The opposition Social Democratic Party (SPD) is a close second with 28 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with 19 per cent, the Left Party (Linke) with 11 per cent, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP)—junior partner in the governing coalition—with four per cent.

On Jul. 21, Merkel described Germany’s economic recovery as "powerful" following the global financial crisis and Europe’s more recent debt crisis. The chancellor added that unemployment is undergoing a "minor miracle" as it has fallen for the twelfth consecutive month, adding, "For all the many difficult problems, Germany and its way of grappling with these issues have earned recognition. The state proved itself to be capable of handling the crisis."

Polling Data

What party would you support in Germany’s next federal election?

	Jul. 16	Jun. 25	May 28
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	30%	32%	30%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	28%	27%	26%
Green Party (Grune)	19%	18%	16%
Left Party (Linke)	11%	11%	13%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	4%	4%	7%

Source: Forsa / Stern / RTL
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,500 German adults, conducted from Jul. 12 to Jul. 16, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

SDP Closing in on Merkels Conservatives in Germany

admin — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 15:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The popularity of Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) is increasing, according to a poll by Infratest-Dimap released by ARD. 30 per cent of respondents would vote for the opposition SDP in the next election to the Federal Diet, up two points since mid-May.

The ruling Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its associate Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) remain in first place with 33 per cent. The Green Party (Grune) is third with 17 per cent, followed by the Left Party (Linke) with 10 per cent, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with five per cent.

On Jul. 7, the government adopted budget cuts worth about $13 billion U.S. for the period between 2011 through 2014. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble explained the decision, saying, "This budget and the mid-term spending plan are heavily influenced by the banking and economic crisis of the last couple of years. We’re setting out to scale back the excessive deficits and ensure our economic development is sustainable."

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next federal election?

	Jul. 1	May 13	Apr. 15
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	33%	32%	36%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	30%	28%	26%
Green Party (Grune)	17%	17%	14%
Left Party (Linke)	10%	11%	10%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	5%	7%	9%

Source: Infratest-Dimap /ARD
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 German adults, conducted from Jun. 30 and Jul. 1, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

German Junior Coalition Partner FDP Hits New low

admin — Sun, 04 Jul 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The junior partner in Germany’s ruling coalition, has continued to lose public support, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern and RTL. Only four per cent of respondents would vote for the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the next election to the Federal Diet, down three points since late May.

The ruling Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) remain in first place with 32 per cent, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 27 per cent, the Green Party (Grune) with 18 per cent, and the Left Party (Linke) with 11 per cent.

On Jun. 30, the Federal Convention—a body that encompasses the Federal Diet as well as delegates from the country’s 16 states—elected a new president to replace Horst Koehler, who tendered his resignation after his controversial remarks about the country’s military mission in Afghanistan.

The presidential election required three rounds of voting. In the end, CDU nominee Christian Wulff defeated SDP candidate Joachim Gauck by 625 votes to 494.

Wolfgang Bosbach—the CDU’s deputy leader in the Federal Diet—expressed his frustration with rebel lawmakers who did not endorse Wulff, saying, "Anyone who thinks that this was a good day for the government is wrong. When it comes down to it, you have to stand together. Politics is a team sport."

Polling Data

What party would you support in Germany’s next federal election?

	Jun. 25	May 28	May 14
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	32%	30%	32%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	27%	26%	27%
Green Party (Grune)	18%	16%	16%
Left Party (Linke)	11%	13%	11%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	4%	7%	6%

Source: Forsa / Stern / RTL
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 2,500 German adults, conducted from Jun. 21 to Jun. 25, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Merkels Conservatives Lose Backing in Germany

admin — Mon, 28 Jun 2010 15:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The allied parties in Germany’s governing coalition are being chastised by the public, according to a poll by FG Wahlen released by ZDF. 33 per cent of respondents would vote for the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) or its sister Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next election to the Federal Diet, down five points since late April.

The Free Democratic Party (FDP), junior partner in the governing coalition, is last with only five per cent. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is in second place with 31 per cent, followed by the Green Party (Grune) with 15 per cent, and the Left Party (Linke) with 10 per cent.

Germany has enacted an austerity plan in the face of the global economic downturn. The FDP has been urged for additional tax relief, but Merkel has resisted such calls so far. On Jun. 24, the chancellor declared: "We’ll enact the measures that we’ve agreed upon. (…) I believe we should not let up."

Polling Data

What party would you vote for in the next federal election?

	Jun. 17	Jun. 2	Apr. 22
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	33%	34%	38%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	31%	29%	26%
Green Party (Grune)	15%	15%	13%
Left Party (Linke)	10%	10%	10%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	5%	6%	8%

Source: FG Wahlen / ZDF
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,265 German adults, conducted from Jun. 15 to Jun. 17, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Wulff Trails Gauck Among German Voters

admin — Tue, 15 Jun 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Germans do not elect the country’s federal president in direct ballots but, if they could, they would support Joachim Gauck this year, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern. 42 per cent of respondents would vote for Gauck, who is backed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party (DG).

Gauck is known for his role in investigating the activities of the Stasi secret police in East Germany.

Christian Wulff, deputy leader of the governing Christian-Democratic Union (CDU), is second with 32 per cent.

In September 2009, German voters participated in a new federal election. Final results gave the CDU-CSU 33.8 per cent of the vote and 239 seats, followed by the SPD with 23 per cent and 146 mandates. This time, Merkel invited the FDP to form a government, and appointed its leader Guido Westerwelle as foreign minister.

The Federal Convention, a body that encompasses the Federal Diet as well as delegates from the country’s 16 states, will elect a new president on Jun. 30. Wulff has been nominated by Merkel to replace Horst Koehler, who tendered his resignation after saying that Germany sometimes needs to deploy troops to places like Afghanistan "to protect our interests—for example free trade routes." More than 4,600 German soldiers are currently serving in Afghanistan.

The two current coalition partners have a larger number of votes in the Federal Convention, so a victory for Wulff is expected. However, Merkel has been under great pressure lately over the handling of Europe’s debt crisis, specifically in Greece, and the introduction of a major austerity package that has angered unions.

On Jun. 14, Jorg-Uwe Hahn, head of the FDP branch in Hessen, declared: "Either we get things sorted out in Berlin, or it will soon be the end for the coalition."

Polling Data

If you could vote for the federal president directly, which one of these two candidates would you vote for?

Joachim Gauck	42%
Christian Wulff	32%
Neither / Not sure	26%

Source: Forsa / Stern
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 German adults, conducted on Jun. 7, 2010. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

Christian Democrats Struggling in Germany

admin — Sat, 05 Jun 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Germany’s political scene has varied greatly over the last few weeks, with the governing parties losing support and the out-of-government Green Party (DG) solidifying its position in third place.

In late May 2010, only 30 per cent of respondents said they would vote for the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) or the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next election to the Federal Diet. The main player in the coalition government is four points below its election total in the September 2009 election.

The CDU-CSU partner—the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP)—is also facing difficult times. From its third place finish in last year’s election (14.6%, 93 seats), the FDP has lost more than half of its voters (7%).

As expected, the three opposition parties have grown. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is three points ahead of its election total (at 26%) and the Left Party (Linke) has gained two points in six months (13%). Still, the most dramatic turnaround is for the Greens, who finished fifth in 2009 with 10.7 per cent of the vote and 68 seats. Now, the environmentalist party stands at 16 per cent—clearly ahead of the other two "minor" German parties.

Although no federal ballot is expected until late 2013, the re-building period for the centre-left parties in Germany is off to a good start. Current chancellor and CDU leader Angela Merkel has faced criticism over her handling of the economic crisis, with half of Germans saying that the federal government has not properly responded to it.

This month, the Federal Convention, a body that encompasses the Federal Diet as well as delegates from the country’s 16 states, will elect a new president. CDU deputy leader Christian Wulff has been nominated by Merkel to replace Horst Koehler, who tendered his resignation following some ill-timed remarks about Afghanistan, where more than 4,600 German soldiers are currently deployed.

The SPD and the Greens have thrown their support behind Joachim Gauck, a revered figure on the left for his role in investigating the activities of the Stasi secret police in East Germany. Gauck is not expected to provide a challenge to Wulff on Jun. 30—since the coalition partners will have a larger number of votes in the Federal Convention—but the victory will not provide a lot of comfort for Merkel and FDP leader Guido Westerwelle.

Coalition Partner FDP is Dead Last in Germany

admin — Tue, 25 May 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The junior partner in Germany’s ruling coalition is the least popular party in the country, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern and RTL. Only six per cent of respondents would vote for the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP) in the next election to the Federal Diet, down one point since mid-February.

The governing Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) remain in first place with 32 per cent, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 27 per cent, the Green Party (Grune) with 17 per cent, and the Left Party (Linke) with 11 per cent.

On May 21, German lawmakers approved a pan-European rescue package for the euro worth close to $941 billion U.S. The governing coalition favoured the bill.

During the debate preceding the vote, SDP leader Sigmar Gabriel chided Merkel’s leadership during the European Union (EU) economic crisis, saying, "You have no line, no aim and you don’t know where you are taking this country or Europe."

Polling Data

What party would you support in Germany’s next federal election?

	May 14	Feb. 12	Jan. 8
Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) / Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU)	32%	35%	35%
Social Democratic Party (SPD)	27%	22%	22%
Green Party (Grune)	16%	17%	14%
Left Party (Linke)	11%	12%	11%
Free Democratic Party (FDP)	6%	7%	10%

Source: Forsa / Stern / RTL
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,006 German adults, conducted from May 12 to May 14, 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.