Angus Reid Public Opinion - Africa

Guinea and Burundi Show Two Faces of African Democracy

admin — Tue, 29 Jun 2010 15:01:00 +0000

Gabriela Perdomo – It is a tense week in Guinea, where the ballots of a presidential election held over the weekend are being counted. Observers in and out of the country are hoping that the success of this election, the first truly democratic process in more than 50 years, will not be broken by its aftermath. Vote-counting has been slow, and poor logistics could hamper the positive mood that has followed the ballot.

Despite a lack of opinion polls, it is widely expected that the ballot will need a second round, since none of the 30 candidates is likely to get more than 50 per cent of the vote. The run-off would be held on Jul. 18.

Meanwhile, miles south-east of Guinea, tensions are running through the roof in Burundi, where another presidential ballot took place yesterday. There is little to celebrate there, as an election that was supposed to take place within the constitutional mandate of multi-party and free democracy ended up with the re-election of the incumbent—and the sole candidate running for office— Pierre Nkurunziza.

Fearing that the presidential elections would mimic widely condemned regional polls conducted last May 24, all of Burundi’s opposition candidates announced earlier in June that they would boycott the process. Nkurunziza was left with only one (sham) opponent, Yves Sahinguvu of the Tutsi Union for National Progress (Uprona), who is his first vice-president and close ally. But Sahinguvu failed to register his candidacy on time, and Burundians went to the ballot box facing a one-man race. Voting day was preceded and succeeded with grenade attacks, leaving hundreds wounded.

The election leaves a sour feeling of disappointment for those who trusted that a new constitution enacted in 2005 would finally bring Burundi a step closer to democracy. Yet, it is important to acknowledge that this same constitution is playing a positive role in the ongoing events. Critics of Nkurunziza’s sham election are calling for the ballot to be cancelled, saying it is unconstitutional for being an obvious breach of the multi-party, multi-candidate system that is supposed to rule in the country.

Nkurunziza has been in office since 2005, when he was elected by lawmakers. This year’s ballot was the first to allow voters to directly elect the country’s president by popular vote—hence the importance of a successful process.

If the opposition leadership in Burundi stays on message, and turns this into a fight to protect the young constitution and new democratic system, it will gain legitimacy and strength. It will not be like having truly democratic elections, but it will show Burundians to aim for respecting the rule of law and, down the road, achieve true democracy.

A similar lesson should be the legacy of Guinea’s presidential election. Guineans should be proud of the success of their democratic process, and demand for nothing less than what they experienced this weekend in the July run-off.

It was, by no means, expected that Guinea’s election would go so well. The country has been the scenario of a series of bizarre events recently, including the non-fatal shooting of President Moussa Dadis Camara by one of his closest aides last December. Camara had succeeded President Lansana Conté after he died in 2008, via a coup d’état. He is now recovering from his serious injuries.

Last weekend’s election was held under the interim presidency of Sékouba Konaté, Camara’s former defence minister and an army general. Thanks to Konaté, the presidential election became a reality and today Guinea is being praised by observers and leaders around the globe.

Guineans should be proud not only because the ballot itself was peaceful and by all accounts fair, but also because the long list of hopefuls did not include any army officers. A picture of General Konaté casting his ballot on Jun. 27 is worth a thousand words. This is clearly a sign of Guinea’s changing political landscape, and a breath of fresh air following decades of military rule.

Guinea’s election is yet to be resolved. Results are expected to come in gradually. Possible candidates to contest the run-off include Alpha Condé, a well known anti-junta leader, as well as former prime ministers Sidya Touré and Cellou Dalein Diallo. For now, the country can pride itself in being, at the very least, on the right track towards a full transition to democratic rule.

Museveni Faces a New Challenge in Uganda

admin — Mon, 07 Jun 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Yoweri Museveni will seek to extend his long tenure as Uganda’s president next year, but the public is currently not as eager to back the incumbent head of state as in years past.

In a survey concluded in May 2010, 43 per cent of respondents said they would cast a ballot for Museveni in the election that is tentatively scheduled for February 2011. The main opposition leader in the African nation—Kizza Besigye of the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC)—is second with 35 per cent.

When he has had to face the electorate, Museveni has always secured a victory with a majority of the vote in the first round. The latest survey suggests that the opposition may have the potential to force a run-off.

Democratic processes in Uganda have usually been less than perfect. The 2006 election, where Museveni defeated Besigye with 59.2 per cent of the vote, was criticized by the United Nations (UN) for lacking "an even playing field" and ended with the Supreme Court’s admission that, although irregularities had indeed taken place in the ballot, they were not enough to dispute Museveni’s victory.

While Museveni’s arrival to the political scene—as the leader of the rebel National Resistance Army (NRA)—was originally greeted with hope by the international community, feelings towards Uganda have changed, particularly after several constitutional amendments effectively allowed Museveni to run for president at will.

Besigye has less than a year to pull together an opposition coalition to seek to dethrone a man who first took power when Ronald Reagan was still in the White House.

South Africans Split on Zumas Performance

admin — Wed, 12 May 2010 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Public support for Jacob Zuma has dropped this year in South Africa, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. 43 per cent of respondents approve of their president’s performance, down 15 points since November.

Thabo Mbeki replaced Nelson Mandela as South Africa’s president after the 1999 general election, where the African National Congress (ANC) received 66.4 per cent of the vote. Mbeki led the ANC to a second majority government in April 2004.

In December 2007, Zuma defeated Mbeki in an internal leadership ballot and became the new leader of the ANC. In January 2008, Zuma was named as the ANC’s presidential candidate.

The rivalry between Zuma and Mbeki brought the ANC to a major crisis. In September 2008, a High Court judge dismissed corruption charges that had been laid against Zuma and accused the Mbeki administration of influencing the prosecution of the accused. Mbeki tendered his resignation as president.

In late September 2008, lawmakers elected ANC deputy leader Kgalema Motlanthe—a former labour leader and former member of the military wing of the party—to replace Mbeki as president. Motlanthe is a close Zuma ally.

In the April 2009 general election, the ANC won 65.90 per cent of the vote and 264 seats—15 less than in the 2005 ballot. Zuma was sworn in as South Africa’s president in May.

Last month, right-wing leader Eugene Terreblanche was assassinated in his farm. In the 1980s, Terreblanche was an advocate of civil war to maintain apartheid in South Africa. He later called for his followers to establish an independent homeland for Afrikaners.

Following Terreblanche’s murder, Zuma appealed for calm and urged South Africans "not to allow agent provocateurs to take advantage of this situation by inciting or fuelling racial hatred."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Jacob Zuma’s performance as president?

	Feb. 2010	Nov. 2009	Sept. 2009
Approve	43%	58%	53%
Disapprove	41%	23%	19%

Source: TNS Research Surveys
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in February 2010. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Kenyans Prefer Pure Presidential System

admin — Sat, 30 Jan 2010 17:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – A pure presidential system is the political structure of choice for people in Kenya, according to a poll by Synovate. 49 per cent of respondents would prefer to have this system in the country.

Conversely, 31 per cent of respondents would like their country to have a hybrid presidential and parliamentary system, and 18 per cent would prefer a solely parliamentary structure.

Kenyans voted in presidential and legislative elections in December 2007. Official results gave incumbent Mwai Kibaki of the Party of National Unity (PNU) 46.64 per cent of all cast ballots, followed by opposition candidate Raila Odinga of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) with 44.28 per cent.

Odinga’s camp complained about irregularities in the ballot count, claiming that Kibaki’s total was inflated by 300,000 votes. The allegations practically paralyzed Kenyan politics, and saw the return of violent incidents that had marred the electoral campaign.

By late Febuary 2008, post-election violence in Kenya had claimed more than 1,000 lives. On Feb. 28—following the mediation by former United Nations (UN) secretary-general Kofi Annan—Kibaki and Odinga reached a preliminary power-sharing deal. The terms entailed the creation of the post of prime minister, who would "coordinate and supervise" government affairs. Kenya would also have two deputy prime ministers, one nominated by each member of the coalition. Kibaki remained as president, and Odinga became prime minister.

A parliamentary committee has been tasked with settling the issue of what political system Kenya should operate under.

On Jan. 26, Ahmed Abdika, chairman of the committee, said that the group has "agreed in principle on the presidential system," adding, "We are working on modalities of checks and balances."

Polling Data

In the proposed constitution, which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have?

Pure presidential	49%
Hybrid system	31%
Pure parliamentary	18%
None / Not sure	2%

Source: Synovate
Methodology: Interviews with 2,000 Kenyan adults, conducted from Jan. 19 to Jan. 21, 2010. Margin of error is 2.2 per cent.

Sexist Attitudes Pervasive in South Africa

admin — Mon, 11 Jan 2010 17:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – A fifth of South African men think women belong in the house, according to a poll by Ipsos Markinor. 20 per cent of male respondents, and 14 per cent of women, share this point of view.

Over a third of men—and over a fifth of women—also think that, when jobs are scarce, men should have more right to a position than women, and that men make better political leaders than women.

Eleven per cent of men and eight per cent of women think that a boy has more right to get an education than a girl. Six per cent of males say it is acceptable for a man to beat his wife.

In June 2009, South Africa’s Medical Research Council (MRC) released a study revealing that one out of every four South African men has admittedly committed rape, and half in that group have done it multiple times.

Rachel Jewkes, a professor working with the MRC, commented on the findings, saying, "The absolute imperative is we have to change the underlying social attitudes that in a way have created a norm that coercing women into sex is on some level acceptable. We know that we have a higher prevalence of rape in South Africa than there is in other countries."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with these statements? – "Agree" listed

	Women	Men
It is acceptable for a man to beat his wife	5%	6%
A boy has more right to an education than a girl	8%	11%
A women’s place is in the house	14%	20%
When jobs are scarce, men should have more right to jobs than women	22%	38%
Men make better political leaders than women do	25%	41%

Source: Ipsos Markinor
Methodology: Interviews with 3,340 South African adults, conducted from Apr. 4 to Apr. 21, 2009. No margin of error was provided.

South Africans Condone Zumas Performance

admin — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 17:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Most people in South Africa are satisfied with the leadership of Jacob Zuma, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. 58 per cent of respondents approve of their president’s performance, up five points since September.

In December 2007, Zuma defeated Mbeki in an internal leadership ballot and became the new leader of the ANC. In January 2008, Zuma was named as the ANC’s presidential candidate.

In the April 2009 general election, the ANC won 65.90 per cent of the vote and 264 seats—15 less than in the 2005 ballot. Zuma was sworn in as South Africa’s president in May 2009.

On Dec. 31, Zuma told South Africans that 2010 must be a significant year in the history of the country, as it prepares to host the World Cup of soccer, adding, "Together we must make 2010 the year in which we renew our commitment to national unity and nation building."

Polling Data

Do you approve or disapprove of Jacob Zuma’s performance as president?

	Nov. 2009	Sept. 2009	Jun. 2009
Approve	58%	53%	57%
Disapprove	23%	19%	13%

Source: TNS Research Surveys
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in November 2009. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

South Africans Fear World Cup Terror Attack

admin — Sat, 12 Dec 2009 17:01:01 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Most people in South Africa are concerned about the possibility of their country being the target of a terrorist attack when it hosts the 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. 51 per cent of respondents share this concern.

South Africa will host the Soccer World Cup from Jun. 11 to Jul. 11, 2010.

On Dec. 4, the Cape Town International Convention Center, the World Cup’s official venue in South Africa’s capital city, was sealed off following a bomb threat. The episode happened just hours before officials of the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) conducted the final draw to determine which teams will play against each other in the first round of the tournament.

Once the incident was over, Police spokesman Vish Naidoo declared: "It’s just a bomb threat. It’s not the first one. We had one this morning at the airport."

Polling Data

Do you agree or disagree with this statement? – "I am concerned about the threat of a terrorist attack during the 2010 FIFA Soccer World Cup"

Agree	51%
Disagree	37%

Source: TNS Research Surveys
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in November 2009. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Most South Africans Content with Zuma

admin — Tue, 25 Aug 2009 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The majority of people in South Africa hold positive views on the performance of Jacob Zuma, according to a poll by TNS Research Surveys. 57 per cent of respondents think the president is doing a good job.

In December 2007, Zuma defeated Mbeki in an internal leadership ballot and became the new leader of the ANC. In January 2008, Zuma was named as the ANC’s presidential candidate.

In the April general election, the ANC won 65.90 per cent of the vote and 264 seats—15 less than in the 2005 ballot. Zuma was sworn in as South Africa’s president in May.

One of Zuma’s election pledges was to create 500,000 new jobs by the end of his term in 2014. However, in late July, the president said that a global economic crisis is affecting his plans, saying, "Our recovery might not be as strong as we would hope. Even if the economy begins to grow again next year, we will have to wait a little longer for a significant increase in new job creation."

Polling Data

Would you say Jacob Zuma is doing a good job, or a bad job?

Good job	57%
Bad job	13%
Don’t know	31%

Source: TNS Research Surveys
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 2,000 South African adults in seven major metropolitan areas, conducted in June 2009. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.

Half of Moroccans Regard Kingdom as Democratic

admin — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – Half of adults in Morocco have no qualms about their country’s form of government, according to a poll by LMS-CSA published in Le Monde. 49 per cent of respondents think Morocco is a democratic monarchy, while 33 per cent define it as authoritarian.

In addition, 37 per cent of respondents believe the situation in Morocco in regards to poverty has gotten better over the last 10 years, while 24 per cent claim it has become worse.

Since July 1999, King Mohammed VI has ruled Morocco. The monarch authorized the release of several political prisoners, and permitted the operation of moderate Islamic political parties.

An election to the 325-seat Assembly of Representatives is scheduled took place in September 2007. The Independence Party (Hizb al-Istiqlal) finished in first place with 52 seats, followed by the Islamist Justice and Development Party (PJD) with 46 mandates. Turnout was tabled at 41 per cent—the lowest level in eight years. Independence Party member Abbas El Fassi was appointed by King Mohammed VI as prime minister.

In recent days, the Moroccan government ordered the seizure and destruction of 100,000 copies of two magazines—TelQuel and Nichane—that were going to publish the results of the LMS-CSA survey. Moroccan communications minister Khalid Naciri declared: "The monarchy can’t be the object of debate, even through a poll."

TelQuel editor Ahmed BenChemsi expressed dismay at the decision, saying, "If the result were bad [for the king], it would have been risky to [publish the results], because Morocco isn’t exactly democratic. But the results weren’t bad. I published them without any feeling of risk. When the magazine was seized, I was really shocked."

Polling Data

Do you think Morocco is a democratic monarchy or an authoritarian monarchy?

A democratic monarchy	49%
An authoritarian monarchy	33%
Not sure	18%

Thinking about poverty, has the situation in Morocco gotten better, stayed the same, or gotten worse in the last ten years?

Better	37%
About the same	37%
Worse	24%
Not sure	2%

Source: LMS-CSA / Le Monde
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,108 Moroccan adults, conducted from Jun. 27 to Jul. 11, 2009. No margin of error was provided.

Ruling CCM Dominates Tanzania Politics

admin — Sun, 31 May 2009 15:01:00 +0000

(Angus Reid Global Monitor) – The Revolutionary State Party (CCM) is clearly the dominant political party in Tanzania, according to a poll by REPOA, Michigan State University, and Afrobarometer. 79 per cent of respondents would vote for the nominee of the CCM in the next presidential election.

The candidates representing the Civic United Front (CCW) and the Party for Democracy and Progress (CHADEMA) are far behind, with four per cent each. Only one per cent of respondents would support the candidate of the National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR).

Tanzania held presidential and legislative elections in December 2005. The CCM’s Jakaya Kikwete won the ballot with 80.2 per cent of the vote. His party also won most of the seats in the legislature, followed by the CCW.

On May 21, Kikwete met with United States president Barack Obama and U.S. state secretary Hillary Rodham Clinton in Washington. The Tanzanian president told Clinton before his meeting with Obama: "I’m here to reaffirm our commitment for continued cooperation and friendship. We have excellent relations on a political level, a bilateral level. We see eye-to-eye on many international issues. We work together at the multilateral level. I’m here to give you that assurance for continued cooperation efforts."

Polling Data

If a presidential election were held tomorrow, which party’s candidate would you vote for?

Revolutionary State Party (CCM)	79%
Civic United Front (CCW)	4%
Party for Democracy and Progress (CHADEMA)	4%
National Convention for Construction and Reform (NCCR)	1%

Source: REPOA / Michigan State University / Afrobarometer
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews with 1,208 Tanzanian adults, conducted in June and July 2008. Margin of error is 2 per cent.