In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,004 American adults, only three-in-ten respondents (31%) believe that Republicans and Democrats will find a way to work together and do what’s best for America.

Democrats (46%) are more likely than Independents (27%) and Republicans (23%) to think bipartisanship will flourish.

Supporters of the two main parties are at odds on most of the country’s pressing concerns. A majority of Republicans are calling for the repeal of President Obama’s health care reform (86%) and for the deportation of all illegal immigrants from the U.S. (64%). Conversely, Democrats declare themselves happy with the outcome of the presidential election (86%) and believe the economy will improve in the next two years (83%).

Motivation

At least three-in-five Americans who voted for Barack Obama in this month’s election cited their distrust of Mitt Romney (63%) and their support of the President and his policies (61%) as motivators for their choice. Almost half (48%) think President Obama has the best plan to help the economy, while fewer did not want to see the Republicans back in the White House (40%) and say they are happy with health care reform (38%).

Conversely, more than seven-in-ten Americans who voted for Mitt Romney say they oppose the President and his policies (75%), are unhappy with health care reform (73%) and do not trust Barack Obama (also 73%). Three-in-five (63%) think Romney had the best plan to help the economy, and almost half (47%) did not want to see the Democrats back in the White House.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 15 to November 16, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,004 randomly selected American likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative national sample of 1,050 American likely voters, 51 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+4 since October) say they will back the incumbent head of state and Democratic Party nominee in tomorrow’s election, while 48 per cent (+1) would support the Republican Party challenger.

Obama has extended his lead among registered voters aged 18-to-34 (66% to 32%), and keeps a six-point edge among female voters (52% to 46%). The two candidates are tied among male voters and those aged 35-to-54, while Romney is more popular among voters over the age of 55 (58% to 41%).

Both candidates keep strong numbers among their respective bases, with Obama garnering 94 per cent of the vote from Democrats, and Romney getting the support of 94 per cent of Republicans. More than half of Independents (55%) say they will cast a ballot for Obama, while two-in-five (42%) will support Romney.

The biggest fluctuation is observed among third party voters, who go from six per cent in a “registered voter” model in October to just one per cent in a “likely voter” calculation in November.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 1 to November 3, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,050 randomly selected American likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of the United States. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 572 likely voters in the Buckeye State, 51 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+3 since October) say they would cast a ballot for the Democratic incumbent in tomorrow’s election, while 48 per cent (=) would support Republican contender Mitt Romney.

Obama is the first choice for respondents aged 18-to-34 (52% to 48%) and those aged 35-to-54 (53% to 46%). Still, female voters are his most important source of support (57% to 42%).

Romney is more popular among voters aged 55 and over and men (54% to 45%).

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown holds a six-point advantage over Republican candidate Josh Mandel.

Brown is also particularly popular with female voters (58%), while younger respondents are evenly divided on which one of the two upper house contenders to support.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 2 to November 4, 2012, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 572 randomly selected Ohio likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.1%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Ohio. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 525 likely voters in the Sunshine State, 49 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-2 since October) say they would support Republican Party nominee Mitt Romney in tomorrow’s ballot, while 49 per cent (+3) would support Democratic incumbent Barack Obama.

In this survey, Romney holds a 14-point advantage among men (56% to 42%), while Obama keeps the same lead among female voters.

Three-in-five respondents aged 18-to-34 (62%) would vote for Obama, but the same proportion of respondents over the age of 55 (62%) would support Romney.

In the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson holds an eight-point advantage over Republican candidate Connie Mack IV (53% to 45%). Nelson would get the votes of three-in-five women (61%) and two thirds of respondents aged 18-to-34 (69%).

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 1 to November 3, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 525 randomly selected Florida likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.3%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Florida. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 482 likely voters in the Badger State, 53 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+2 since October) would cast a ballot for the Democratic incumbent in tomorrow’s United States presidential election, while 46 per cent (=) would back the Republican Party nominee.

Obama has a 21-point advantage over Romney among female voters (60% to 39%) and an 18-point lead among respondents aged 18-to-34 (58% to 40%).

The presidential race is closer among middle-aged respondents and those aged 55 and over.

The U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin is particularly tight, with Democrat Tammy Baldwin and Republican Tommy Thompson separated by just two points (50% to 48%).

Baldwin is more popular among female voters (60%) and middle-aged respondents (53%), while Thompson would garner a majority of the votes from men (59%) and respondents aged 55 and over.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 1 to November 3, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 482 randomly selected Wisconsin registered voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Wisconsin. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 507 likely voters in the Keystone State, 51 per cent of decided voters and leaners (-1 since October) say they would support the incumbent Democrat in tomorrow’s United States presidential election, while 47 per cent (+5) would cast a ballot for the Republican nominee.

Obama keeps a six-point lead over Romney among male voters (52% to 46%), and remains the first choice for respondents aged 18-to34 (60% to 35%).

The two candidates are tied among respondents aged 35-to-54, while Romney has an eight-point edge over Obama among those aged 55 and over (54% to 46%).

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bob Casey Jr. heads to election day with the support of 53 per cent of decided voters and leaners, while Republican contender Tom Smith is seven points behind (46%). Casey is popular among younger voters (62% to 34%), and does not trail Smith in any of the five demographics reviewed.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 2 to November 4, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 507 randomly selected Pennsylvania likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Pennsylvania. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 502 likely voters in the Great Lake State, 52 per cent of decided voters and leaners (unchanged since October) say they would cast a ballot for the Democratic incumbent in Tuesday’s election, while 47 per cent (+4) would back Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Obama is particularly popular among female voters in Michigan (56% to 42%), and holds a 15-point lead among voters aged 18-to-34 (57% to 42%). Romney has increased his standing among Great Lake State voters since last month’s survey, and is ahead among male voters (53% to 47%).

In the U.S. Senate race, support for Debbie Stabenow is lower than it was in October (down from 59% to 56%), but the Democratic incumbent maintains a comfortable lead over GOP rival Pete Hoekstra, who gained four points and is now supported by 43 per cent of decided voters and leaners.

Stabenow stands to garner at least three-in-five votes from women (63%), younger voters (60%) and voters over the age of 55 (also 60%) in Michigan.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From November 1 to November 3, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 502 randomly selected Michigan likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.4%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Michigan. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the online survey of representative national samples, Canadians prefer Barack Obama to Mitt Romney by a 7-to-1 margin (72% to 10%), while Britons favour the Democrat over the Republican by a 10-to-1 margin (62% to 6%).

Roughly half of respondents in the two countries (49% in Canada, 52% in Britain) think Obama has performed at the level they expected.

One-in-four Canadians (24%) and 18 per cent of Britons believe Obama has performed worse than they expected.

A third of Canadians (32%) say that Barack Obama has accomplished much since he became President, a view shared by 22 per cent of Britons.

Obama’s popularity in the hypothetical ballot question is directly related to the perception that he has had a positive effect on foreign relations. Two thirds of Canadians (68%) and practically three-in-five Britons (57%) believe that having Barack Obama as President of the United States has been “good” for their respective countries.

Since an Angus Reid Public Opinion survey conducted five months ago, the proportion of Canadians and Britons who would “vote” for Obama has increased by seven points and 11 points respectively.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From October 23 to October 26, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 1,005 randomly selected Canadian adults who are Angus Reid Forum panelists, and 2,004 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 3.1% for Canada and 2.2% for Britain. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada and Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

In the end, Gore received 543,895 more votes than Bush, but was unable to turn this lead into a victory in the Electoral College. Six states that were carried by Bush were decided by less than 4.0% per cent of the vote: Florida, New Hampshire, Missouri, Ohio, Nevada and Gore’s home state of Tennessee.

With exactly two weeks to go before Americans cast their ballots in 2012, a similar scenario could materialize, this time benefitting the Democrat and hindering the Republican. The latest Angus Reid Public Opinion national poll shows a tie between incumbent Democrat Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

Romney’s national surge, particularly after the first presidential debate, did not lead to gains in certain states he needs to win in order to have a chance to become the 45th President. It doesn’t matter if Romney wins Texas with 55 per cent, 65 per cent or 75 per cent of the vote: he’ll still get 38 electoral votes.

This week, Angus Reid Public Opinion published five state surveys that take a closer look at the race. Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan appear to be in Obama’s column, but the two most important swing states tell a different story. Obama and Romney are tied in Ohio, and the Republican is now five points ahead of the Democrat in Florida.

The Florida lead provides Romney supporters with some hope. With the Sunshine State, the GOP nominee would need to add just three states to his tally of 235 electoral votes from areas that have traditionally voted for his party: Virginia, Ohio and just one of the remaining swing states (New Hampshire, Nevada, Iowa or Colorado). Without Ohio’s electoral votes, Romney’s climb is significantly tougher: he would need to win the five remaining swing states to replace Obama in January 2013.

If he were to lose in Florida, Obama could simply win Ohio and one more state—other than New Hampshire—to keep his job, even if he receives fewer votes than Romney at the national level. The wackiest scenario would see Obama winning Ohio and New Hampshire, but losing the other swing states to Romney. This would mean that the two nominees would be tied with 269 electoral votes, short of the 270 needed to become president.

In the event of a tie in the Electoral College, the president would be elected by the incoming House of Representatives, with a “one state, one vote” system. The Republicans would probably hold a majority of the seats in more than 27 states, practically ensuring that a tie in the Electoral College would mean a Romney presidency.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 502 likely voters in the Sunshine State, 51 per cent of decided voters say they would support Romney in next month’s United States presidential election, while 46 per cent would cast a ballot for Democratic incumbent Obama.

The Republican nominee holds a 17-point lead among male decided voters (58% to 41%), while President Obama has a seven-point edge among women (52% to 45%).

Obama is more popular with decided voters aged 18-to-34 (56%, compared to 41% for Romney). Conversely, the GOP nominee is currently supported by a majority of decided voters aged 35-to-54 (54% to 43%) and those over the age of 55 (56% to 42%).

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson holds a 17-point advantage over GOP candidate Connie Mack IV (56% to 39%) among decided voters.

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From October 18 to October 20, 2012, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 502 randomly selected Florida likely voters who are Springboard America panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 4.5%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current age and gender data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Florida. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.