The referendum will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system for general elections, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 1,215 absolutely certain British voters, 61 per cent of respondents say they would vote No in the referendum, in order to keep the current system. Conversely, 39 per cent of voters would cast a Yes ballot.

Respondents aged 18 to 34 are the only demographic that is ready to give the alternative system a chance, with 57 per cent saying they will vote Yes tomorrow. However, the level of opposition to the proposed system reaches 54 per cent among respondents aged 35 to 54, and climbs to 68 per cent among those over the age of 55.

As was first witnessed last month, the rejection to the new system is coming in large part from voters who supported the Conservative Party in the May 2010 General Election (83% say they will vote No). Liberal Democrats continue to endorse change, but not as overwhelmingly as their Tory counterparts.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From May 3 to May 4, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,000 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists, including 1,184 absolutely certain referendum voters. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2% for the entire sample of Britons, and +/- 2.8% for the sub-sample of absolutely certain voters, 19 times out of 20. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,010 British adults, 41 per cent of respondents say they would vote No in the referendum, in order to keep the current system. This represents a 13-point increase since the last Angus Reid Public Opinion survey conducted in mid-April. Conversely, 30 per cent of respondents (-2) would cast a Yes ballot. The proportion of undecided respondents has fallen markedly, from 32 per cent earlier this month to 22 per cent now.

The No side is clearly ahead in the South of England, Midlands and Wales and the North, while respondents are almost evenly split in London and Scotland.

The big jump in support for the No side is coming from people who voted for the Conservative Party in the May 2010 General Election. In January, 30 per cent of these voters were in the No column. The proportion rose to 43 per cent earlier this month, and has now reached 65 per cent.

Among decided voters, support for keeping the current system stands at 58 per cent, with 42 per cent of decided voters expressing a wish to adopt the alternative vote system.

The proportion of respondents who are “very informed” or “moderately informed” about the alternative vote system continues to rise as referendum date draws near, and now stands at 67 per cent, up 10 points since mid-April.

Analysis

Earlier this month, we observed that the motivation of the established national parties to advance the result that best fits their interests would become a factor in the referendum. The drastic shift observed in this survey can be traced back to Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech on 18 April, where he described the alternative vote system as “obscure, unfair and expensive.”

Tory supporters appear to have heeded the message of their leader, while Lib-Dem backers are choosing the Yes side by a 2-to-1 margin, and Labour voters remain evenly split.

It is important to also note that there is a marked increase in the proportion of respondents who are paying attention to the referendum. For the first time, two thirds of Britons are informed about the proposed new system.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From April 20 to April 21, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,010 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,023 British adults, 32 per cent of respondents (+3 since mid-March) say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, while 28 per cent (=) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. Eight per cent of those polled say that they would not vote, and the proportion of undecideds has dropped slightly to 32 per cent (-3).

Men (39%) are more likely to vote Yes than women (26%), and the younger voters apparently have more impetus to change. Two-in-five respondents aged 18 to 34 (38%) will be voting Yes, compared to 29 per cent for those aged 35-54, and 31 per cent of those over the age of 55.

Liberal Democrat voters remain most supportive of the proposed change (54%of them plan to vote Yes) whilst Conservative voters are increasingly likely to vote No (43%, up from 30% in January). Labour voters are divided, with 30 per cent in favour of the change, and 33 per cent against it.

For the first time this year, a majority of respondents (57%, +12) say they are “very informed” or “moderately informed” about the alternative vote system.

Among decided voters, support for the change has increased by two points to 53 per cent—still lower than the proportion who were in favour of the proposed new system in January.

Voting Intention

Across Britain, 42 per cent of decided voters and leaners (+1) say they would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election. The Conservative Party is second with 31 per cent (-1), and their coalition partners—the Liberal Democrats—are third with 11 per cent (+1).

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is next with six per cent (-2), followed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) with four per cent, the Green Party with three per cent, the British National Party (BNP) with two per cent, and Plaid Cymru with one per cent.

Labour keeps double-digit leads in London (46% to 32%), the North (51% to 30%), and Midlands and Wales (44% to 30%). The Tories are ahead in the South of England (38% to 33%). In Scotland, Labour is leading the SNP by four points (40% to 36%).

Analysis

The electorate is paying more attention to the referendum, as shown by the 12 point increase in the proportion of respondents who report being informed about what’s at stake. The ballot numbers did not shift significantly since March, and the eventual outcome remains uncertain.

While supporters of the three main parties hold roughly the same level of undecided voters, Lib-Dems are definitely breaking to Yes, Tories to No, and Labourites are split down the middle. Turnout will indubitably become a factor in the outcome, and so will the motivation of the established national parties to advance the result that best fits their interests.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Angus Reid Public Opinion
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@angus-reid.com

Methodology: From April 8 to April 11, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,023 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The online survey of a representative sample of 2,023 British adults also shows that decided voters are divided on whether to adopt a new system to elect members of the House of Commons.

Voting Intention

Across Britain, 41 per cent of decided voters and leaners (= since early March) say they would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election. The Conservative Party is second with 32 per cent (-1), and their coalition partners—the Liberal Democrats—are third with 10 per cent (=).

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is next with eight per cent, followed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) with four per cent, the Green Party with two per cent, the British National Party (BNP) also with two per cent, and Plaid Cymru with one per cent.

Labour maintains double-digit leads in London (48% to 30%) and the North (48% to 27%), and keeps a three-point edge over the Tories in Midlands and Wales. The Tories are ahead in the South of England (41% to 33%). In Scotland, Labour is leading the SNP by five points (43% to 38%).

Referendum

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

Overall, 29 per cent of respondents (-3 since early March) say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. Conversely, 28 per cent of respondents (-2) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. More than a third of respondents (35%, =) remain undecided, and seven per cent (=) would not vote.

Among decided voters, opposition to the change has grown by four points to 49 per cent, with the Yes side marginally ahead by two points (51%).

In the survey, 45 per cent of respondents say they are “very informed” or “moderately informed” about the alternative vote system, don three points since early March.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From March 18 to March 21, 2011, Angus Reid Public Opinion conducted an online survey among 2,023 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The online survey of a representative sample of 2,007 British adults also shows that more people are becoming informed about the upcoming referendum that could alter the way members of the House of Commons are elected.

Voting Intention

Across Britain, 41 per cent of decided voters and leaners (= since late January) say they would support the Labour candidate in their constituency in the next General Election. The Conservative Party is second with 33 per cent (=), and their coalition partners—the Liberal Democrats—are third with 10 per cent (-2).

The United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) is next with seven per cent, followed by the Scottish National Party (SNP) with three per cent, the Green Party also with three per cent, and the British National Party (BNP) with two per cent.

Labour has amassed double-digit leads in London (48% to 29%) and the North (51% to 28%) but saw its advantage in Midlands and Wales drop to only three points. The Tories maintain the upper hand in the South of England (42% to 31%). In Scotland, Labour is leading the SNP by eight points (41% to 33%).

Approval

Prime Minister David Cameron maintains the same approval rating he had in late January (41%), while Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg posted the lowest numbers of his tenure (30%, down 20 points since May 2010). A third of respondents (33%, -1) approve of the way Ed Miliband is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition.

Referendum

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

Overall, 32 per cent of respondents (-3 since late January) say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. One-in-four respondents (26%, +5) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. More than a third of respondents (35%, -2) are undecided, and seven per cent (=) would not vote.

Among decided voters, opposition to the change has grown by seven points to 45 per cent, but the Yes side is still ahead by 10 points

In the survey, 48 per cent of respondents say they are “very informed” or “moderately informed” about the alternative vote system, up six points since late January.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From March 3 to March 4, 2011, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 2,007 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,010 British adults, 37 per cent of respondents say they will vote “Yes” on the referendum, while 22 per cent would vote “No.” A third of respondents (35%) are undecided, and six per cent do not plan to vote.

Throughout 2011, three Vision Critical / Angus Reid surveys have provided similar findings, with “Yes” ahead of “No” by a double-digit margin, and at least a third of respondents still not sure about how they will cast their ballot.

The other constant in the first two months of the year is the majority of respondents (53% in the latest survey) who say they are “not too informed” or “not informed at all” about the alternative vote system that has been proposed to elect Members of Parliament to the House of Commons.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From February 15 to February 16, 2011, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 2,010 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

A large proportion of Britons remains uninformed about the referendum that could alter the way members of the House of Commons are elected, a new Vision Critical / Angus Reid poll has found.

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,010 British adults, 54 per cent of respondents say they are “not too informed” or “not informed at all” about the alternative vote system.

Overall, 35 per cent of respondents (-2 since early January) say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. One-in-five respondents (21%, +1) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. More than a third of respondents (37%, =) are undecided, and seven per cent (+1) would not vote.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From January 25 to January 26, 2011, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 2,010 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.

The referendum, which is scheduled for 5 May 2011 in the United Kingdom, will ask voters whether the United Kingdom should continue to rely on the first past the post system to elect MPs to the House of Commons, or move to the alternative vote system instead.

In the online survey of a representative sample of 2,010 British adults, 37 per cent of respondents say they would vote Yes to switch to the alternative vote system to elect MPs to the House of Commons. One-in-five respondents (20%) would cast a No ballot in order to keep the existing first past the post system. More than a third of respondents (37%) are undecided, and six per cent would not vote.

The change to the alternative vote system is most popular in Scotland (42%) and least supported in Midlands and Wales (31%). While Conservative Party voters in the 2010 General Election are virtually split when assessing the change (34% would vote Yes, 30% would voter No) the gap is larger for Labour Party voters (Yes 36%, No 23%). Liberal Democrats favour the change by a 6-to-1 margin (Yes 53%, No 9%).

The high level of undecided voters appears to be related to lack of information. More than half of Britons (54%) say they are “not too informed” or “not informed at all” about the alternative vote system—including a majority of Labour (56%) and Liberal Democrat (53%) voters.

Analysis

With four months to go before the referendum takes place, the only group that seems unquestionably motivated to enact change is formed by Liberal Democrats. At least a third of respondents across the country remain undecided, and just two-in-five say they are well informed about the proposed new system. The stance of party leaders will play a significant role in boosting the level of support for the Yes and No sides as the referendum draws near.

Download Full Tables

Download Full Methodology Statement

Full Report, Detailed Tables and Methodology (PDF)

CONTACT:

Mario Canseco, Vice President, Communications & Media Relations
+877 730 3570
mario.canseco@visioncritical.com

Methodology: From January 6 to January 7, 2011, Vision Critical conducted an online survey among 2,010 randomly selected British adults who are Springboard UK panelists. The margin of error—which measures sampling variability—is +/- 2.2%. The results have been statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region data to ensure samples representative of the entire adult population of Great Britain. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding.