The British prime minister faces low numbers, as both public opinion and members of his own party wonder if someone else should take over.

Mario Canseco

In May 2003, as the war effort in Iraq appeared to be developing smoothly after a declared end of major military operations, Tony Blair and his Labour party were bouncing back from criticism in Britain. The prime minister was able to overcome poor numbers after offering his complete support to the United States-led coalition, placing his party with a two per cent lead over the opposition Conservatives, then commanded by Iain Duncan Smith.

Twelve months later, much has changed. The apparent suicide of former United Nations (UN) weapons inspector David Kelly in July 2003 polarized public opinion over the rationale for war. The absence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq made many Britons wonder whether the government had overstated intelligence reports to make the case for war against Iraq more plausible.

Michael Howard—a former interior minister under John Major in the early 1990s—substituted Duncan Smith as the country's top Tory politician in November 2003. Howard has spent the last few weeks questioning the government's position on topics related to the European Union (EU), focusing specifically on the long-awaited continental constitution and the notoriously divisive topic of the Euro.

A new Tory leader is not the prime minister's only predicament. With little over a year go before Britain renews the House of Commons, Blair is facing voices of dissent uncommon for an incumbent looking for a third term. In a YouGov/Sunday Times poll conducted earlier this month, 46 per cent of respondents said Blair should stand down as prime minister before the next election. The same survey gave the Tories a four per cent edge over Labour in voting intention. The Conservatives also led the ruling party by four per cent in a Populus/The Times study.

Two high-profile Labour politicians have added their voices to the chorus. Former leader Neil Kinnock and former chancellor of the exchequer Denis Healey recently suggested that the current prime minister should allow someone else to command the party.

Chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown has been consistently mentioned as the most favoured successor, and a recent YouGov poll suggests he could have an effect on the next election. With Blair as leader, the Tories would defeat Labour by four per cent. If Brown were commanding the ruling party, Labour and the Conservatives would be tied at 39 per cent.

While U.S. president George W. Bush has lost backing after the prisoner abuse scandal, Blair emerged unscathed from the controversy, as the photographs that allegedly depicted the mistreatment of Iraqis at the hands of British troops turned out not to be genuine. Still, Iraq remains a contentious issue. There have been 907 coalition deaths since the conflict began in March 2003, including 59 British citizens.

Blair has vowed to stay the course in the Persian Gulf, expressing his "total resolve and determination" to hand power over to an Iraqi administration by the end of next month. In a poll by NOP published in The Independent, 55 per cent of respondents wanted all British soldiers out of Iraq this summer.

The first post-war test for Labour comes early next month, with elections to local councils and the European Parliament. The ruling party has campaigned under the slogan "Britain is working. Don't let the Tories wreck it again."

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