Angus Reid Global Monitor : Politics In Depth

The Poll-itics of Global Warming

February 21, 2007

The debate begins to focus on action in Canada and Britain, but not in America.

Abstract: Mario Canseco - For the past year, the polling world has been dominated by questions related to the environment, and specifically, on the perceptions of global citizens about climate change.

Mario Canseco - For the past year, the polling world has been dominated by questions related to the environment, and specifically, on the perceptions of global citizens about climate change. While the issue has generated healthy debate, which has grown to include political luminaries, the consensus has become particularly clear among the general population.

Global warming is real for 85 per cent of Britons and 82 per cent of Americans. In addition, 73 per cent of Canadians consider it a serious threat. In these three countries, the recent actions taken by national administrations to deal with global warming suggest that leaders can no longer avoid the debate by questioning "the science." Still, the way the heads of government have embraced the issue has been diverse.

British prime minister Tony Blair, facing serious accusations over his peerage appointments and with his Labour party trailing the Conservatives, thinks climate change goes hand-in-hand with energy security—a key topic in Europe after Russia's recent squabbles with Ukraine and Belarus over gas imports. Blair discussed the issue earlier this month and expressed hope that countries like China and India would act to curb climate change, in an appeal that seemed appropriate for a head of government who is about to retire.

In last month's State of the Union address, U.S. president George W. Bush linked global warming and energy security, saying, "America is on the verge of technological breakthroughs that will enable us to live our lives less dependent on oil. And these technologies will help us be better stewards of the environment, and they will help us to confront the serious challenge of global climate change." The sentence marked the first time Bush has uttered the words "climate change" before a joint session of Congress.

Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper has enacted a cabinet shuffle, and introduced several environmental initiatives, including the Canada Eco-Trust and Clean Air Fund, while ratifying his displeasure—first voiced during his days as opposition leader—with the terms of the Kyoto Protocol. Environment minister John Baird has said this Canadian administration will not support either a carbon tax or a carbon trading system, but "provide regulation for industry to ensure we reduce both greenhouse gas emissions and reduce air pollutants."

While these three leaders might not readily admit it, it is clear that global public opinion is undergoing an environmental revival, where the focus on climate change has taken precedence—albeit temporarily—to other topics. In 2006, 88 per cent of respondents in Australia, Canada, Britain, Germany, Brazili, France, China, Russia and the United States saw a connection between the protection of the environment and their quality of life.

Still, on the topic of climate change, not everyone was on the same page. In a global survey also conducted last year, in only three of 30 countries—the United States, South Africa and Kenya—did fewer than 80 per cent of respondents consider global warming as a very or somewhat serious problem. Conversely, the highest level of concern—80 per cent or more—was exemplified by Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Nicaragua.

Public opinion in Britain and Canada has gone beyond the assessment of government action, and has begun to question citizens on their commitment to green causes. Britons conditionally support the introduction of some green taxes, but also call for action to deal with big polluters. In addition, 53 per cent would be willing to pay more for fuel as part of efforts to cut back on carbon emissions.

Canadians prefer regulations that involve direct government intervention—providing tax breaks to businesses and manufacturers that implement standards to curb global warming and a subsidy that would cut public transit fares in half—but majorities call for "punitive measures" against people who don't recycle properly or drive vehicles that are not energy efficient. Still, a fuel tax across the board is flatly rejected.

In the United States, questions about personal habits have been missing from the debate. A majority agrees on energy conservation, but fewer voice support for raising gas prices or issue rebate checks to taxpayers. The discussions have been dominated by oil, and where to get it from, rather than action. Almost two decades ago, George H. Bush committed himself to becoming, among other things, the "environmental president." So far, none of the persons who are seeking to replace his son have begun to flirt with this label. If and when they do, public opinion—as has been the case in Canada and Britain—will follow.

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