Angus Reid Global Monitor : Politics In Depth

Talk of Succession Might Haunt Blair in Britain

May 16, 2005

The prime minister has vowed to serve a complete term, while Gordon Brown waits for his chance.

Abstract: (Angus Reid Global Scan) Mario Canseco - Earlier this month, British prime minister Tony Blair was elected to a third consecutive mandate.

(Angus Reid Global Scan) Mario Canseco - Earlier this month, British prime minister Tony Blair was elected to a third consecutive mandate. The outcome of the May 5 House of Commons ballot—forecast by voting intention polls all through the campaign—was bittersweet for the Labour party. The political organization will form a majority government for the third time in a row, but with fewer parliamentarians than in 2001 and with the lowest share of the national vote—35.2 per cent—in Britain's history.

During a brief appearance before reporters after his triumph in the Sedgefield constituency was certified, Blair acknowledged that the electorate wanted to "return a Labour government with a reduced majority." The prime minister also conceded that Iraq had proven to be a "divisive factor" but expressed his hope to "put the issue behind and get things done, there and here."

Blair faced tough questions about the coalition effort only in the last two weeks of the campaign, as the press concentrated on a partial transcript of advice issued by attorney general Lord Goldsmith before the war began. The prime minister's office eventually released a complete set of documents, where Goldsmith recommended achieving a second United Nations (UN) resolution as the safest legal course before launching military action.

Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy drew attention to Iraq, urging voters to "view this general election as a referendum on (Blair's) conduct." Conservative leader Michael Howard—whose party had openly supported the coalition effort—sought to capitalize not on the rationale for war, but on the confidence factor, declaring, "The issue of Iraq boils down to one very simple question at the root of it all—if you can't trust Mr. Blair on the decision to go to war, how can you trust Mr. Blair on anything else ever again?"

On the last days of the campaign, Britons appeared more worried about domestic matters. Iraq was mentioned as the most important issue by just three per cent of respondents to a late April ICM Research/The Guardian survey. The National Health Service (NHS), the economy, and law and order were listed as more pressing concerns for voters.

The final outcome brought mixed news for Britain's three main political parties. The Liberal Democrats increased their share of the vote from 18.3 per cent in 2001 to 22 per cent this time around, winning 10 more House of Commons seats for a total of 62. Still, the party looked to capitalize further with the backing of disenchanted Labour supporters. The Lib-Dems will continue to advocate for electoral reform, seeking to abolish the first-past-the-post system. Kennedy recently declared, "The case for (proportional representation) has never looked so strong."

Howard put his job in the hands of the Tory caucus, claiming that—at the age of 63—he is simply too old to command the party further. Blair would be responsible for toppling three different Conservative leaders: former prime minister John Major, William Hague and now Howard. While the Tories might take solace in the fact that they secured 197 seats—31 more than four years ago—Britain's electoral map shows a lack of uniform support for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition.

A post-election study by YouGov published in the Daily Telegraph showed that the British electorate wants changes to the Tory philosophy. 48 per cent of respondents argue for a fresher administrative style—no cuts to public services, a commitment to lower taxes and a smaller bureaucracy—in order to revitalize the Conservative ranks.

As far as Blair and the Labour party are concerned, talk of a quick succession has already begun. 46 per cent of respondents to a YouGov/Daily Telegraph poll said they expect Blair to stand down within the next 12 months.

Last October, Blair vowed to retire at the end of his third term. Chancellor of the exchequer Gordon Brown has long been considered as Labour's heir apparent, and voting intention polls conducted before the election consistently granted him high numbers. Respondents to a February Communicate Research survey published in The Independent gave Labour an extra five per cent boost with Brown as party leader instead of Blair.

Blair has expressed his desire to concentrate on the business of governing, and not on handing power over to a new prime minister. Tomorrow, Labour will delineate its agenda for the next mandate in the Queen's Speech. New legislation aimed at enabling a more effective NHS and curbing vandalism will be featured in the document. While Blair enters the House of Commons with 355 fellow party members, at least 60 of the recently re-elected MP's voted against the government in the last parliament—on issues ranging from anti-terrorism legislation to university tuition fees.

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