After two summer crises, the leaders of France and Germany cannot count on Iraq to boost their popularity.

Mario Canseco

As the military operation in Iraq reaches six months—and phrases such as "shock and awe" and "freedom fries" start to fade away from the world's collective memory—the two world leaders who more vehemently opposed the coalition effort are back in the spotlight.

Before the campaign began, United States defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld referred to France and Germany as "Old Europe", when answering questions to reporters. Back then, Britain, Spain and Portugal were the key allies. At this week's United Nations (UN) General Assembly, France and Germany once again enjoyed prominent spots in the agenda.

George W. Bush pleaded his case for a new UN Security Council resolution on Iraq, looking for a broader international mandate. The American president held sessions with French counterpart Jacques Chirac and German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder. Chirac has no plans to veto the impending new resolution, but openly blamed unilateralism for pushing the UN into a severe crisis. Schroeder hinted at a possible abstention if certain conditions—such as a nimble transfer of power into the hands of the Iraqi people—are not met.

In their respective countries, the leaders of France and Germany are coming off very tough months. Chirac made the best of his May 2002 run-off victory over Jean-Marie Le Pen, capitalizing on public dismay over his opponent's position on immigration. The president's stance on Iraq only aided a soaring approval rating. 69 per cent of respondents to a March BVA/Paris Match poll rated Chirac's performance as good.

In August, the mood began to change as senior citizens were falling ill and dying every day all over France. An intense heat wave was blamed, and death toll estimates kept climbing each week, culminating in today's figure of 14,802 fatalities. Chirac was quick to acknowledge the dreadful state of the European nation's health system, and promised reforms to ensure better care for an aging population.

The French do not believe their elected officials are directly responsible for the demises. 71 per cent of respondents to an August CSA/La Tribune poll say the health system—and fate—are the main reasons for so many deaths. Still, this month's BVA/Paris Match survey gave Chirac a 52 per cent approval rating, a 27 per cent drop in seven months.

In Germany, this month marked the first anniversary of Schroeder's re-election victory. Last year, voting intention polls showed a surge in support for the ruling Social Democratic Party (SPD) after Schroeder refused to back any action in Iraq without UN mandate. In the end, the SPD was able to form an alliance government with the Green Party, keeping Schroeder at the helm.

Germany also had its summer crises, which involved money, not heat. The German economy shrank for the second quarter in a row, but the chancellor has so far refused to brand the situation as a "recession." Schroeder is also pushing for tax cuts which still need approval from the lower house, dominated by opposition parties. 54 per cent of respondents to an August poll by Forsa say the government will not be able to implement its reform plans.

Last week, the SPD had its worst showing since the end of World War II in the pivotal state of Bavaria, getting less than 20 per cent of the vote. The result follows crushing defeats in elections held in Lower Saxony and Hesse last February.

The summer months illustrated how France and Germany are aching for health and financial reforms. A unified position on Iraq—even with a new UN Security Council resolution—may not be enough to return Chirac and Schroeder to their previous popularity levels.

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