Credit:Reinhard Jahn, Mannheim

A former bishop threatens to end of the ruling party's long reign.

Gabriela Perdomo - "From today on, my cathedral will be the nation", declared Fernando Lugo last December as he announced he was determined to seek Paraguay's presidency upon leaving behind his life serving the Catholic Church.

Lugo, 55, has become the center of attention in Paraguay's political life over the past few months. The charismatic former bishop of a poor diocese in San Pedro has emerged as the main threat for Paraguay's long-governing National Republican Association - Red Party (ANR), whose prospective presidential hopefuls trail him in a recent poll by COIN.

Lugo is a novelty for many reasons. The right-wing ANR—or Colorados—have been involved in Paraguay's national administration since the mid-20th century, even during the dictatorship of Alfredo Stroessner. The ANR is actually the longest-serving governing party in the world, even ahead North Korea's Kim dynasty.

Judging by the conditions of this poor South American country, the Colorados have not done a very good job in leading Paraguay. The land-locked nation is one of South America's poorest, least influential and most ignored. Thousands of young Paraguayans leave the country every year searching for job opportunities, especially to Argentina, Chile and Uruguay. Corruption is a major concern. The economy has stabilized in recent years, but rampant poverty is still an issue. It was only a matter of time—and sufficient will by the opposition—before someone would finally come to challenge the uncontested party in power.

Ahead of the April 2008 presidential election, Paraguay's small opposition parties have decided to unite under the National Agreement (CN) banner—a name that recalls the alliance of centre-left parties that has governed Chile since the return of democracy in 1990. Beloved Homeland Party (PPQ) member Pedro Fadul—the organization's leader— announced this month that the CN will support one presidential candidate elected by consensus by all members before mid-July. Lugo is part of the alliance, although he is not identified with any political party. If everything goes well, he will most likely become the CN's presidential candidate, and has a realistic change of winning the presidency next year.

Still, the former priest faces several obstacles. Both the Catholic Church and the ruling party are against his political aspirations. Lugo renounced his priesthood in December with an official letter to The Vatican, but the authority refused his request. The Vatican's response was to "suspend" him, arguing that priesthood is a lifetime commitment that goes beyond human determination to end it. The Paraguayan Bishops Conference agrees with The Vatican, and recently declared Lugo is a "bishop for life" and risks excommunication by joining partisan politics. Lugo's reaction was to say that the Catholic authorities "can either accept my decision or punish me. But I am in politics already." However, the row is not over just yet.

The Paraguayan constitution bans members of the clergy from seeking public office. While Lugo's legal advisers claim he should now be treated as any other civilian, government officials and current president Nicanor Duarte have deemed his candidacy as illegal. On May 9, Duarte suggested his administration might ask the proper authorities to block Lugo's aspirations, calling his candidacy "unconstitutional", and adding, "Lugo is a member of the clergy who doesn't know if he's a bishop or what."

Duarte, who has been in office since winning the April 2003 ballot with 37.1 per cent of the vote, was tempted at some point to seek a constitutional amendment that would have allowed him to run for re-election. He recently declined his aspirations—some suggest because he was trailing Lugo in voting intention polls—and instead endorsed his current education minister, Blanca Ovelar, ahead of his own vice-president, Luis Castiglioni.

Lugo is steadily winning popular support with his soft-spoken style. The prospective candidate claims he is no saviour of the poor, but insists he will address poverty, hunger, and the lack of proper health and education systems if elected. He asserts he will pay special attention to the marginalized indigenous majority, too. He is fluent in Guarani, Paraguay's official indigenous language. He refuses to enter the superficial discussion on whether he would align Paraguay with the left-leaning governments of Bolivia and Venezuela, saying he admires their social policies but disagrees with their taste for authoritarianism.

If Lugo manages to surmount the fierce battle the government is about to fight against him—both the Church and the Supreme Court are strongly influenced by the Colorados—Lugo could lead Paraguay into an appealing new era of renovation. His seemingly apolitical discourse, contrary to what Duarte and his allies insist, is prudent and sophisticated, and his sole participation in a presidential campaign would already be a victory for Paraguay.

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