Bringing calm and stability to the southern Philippines will not be as simple as negotiating a deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.

Rob Annandale - The peace process looks to be back on track in the southern Philippines where the fight to carve out a Muslim homeland in an overwhelmingly Christian country has spanned four decades and cost an estimated 120,000 lives.

Informal talks between the Philippine government and the largest Muslim rebel group—the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)—yielded a breakthrough earlier this month on the highly contentious issue of "ancestral domain" relating to territory, governance and resource sharing. The resulting memorandum of agreement, initialled by representatives of the two sides over the weekend with a formal signing ceremony planned for next week, should signal the end of a standoff that had threatened to derail the whole process.

When formal negotiations fell through late last year, Gloria Macapagal Arroyo’s pledge to usher in an era of peace by the end of her second and final presidential term in 2010—using a strategy reversal from her predecessor’s brutal "all-out war" to a more diplomatic "all-out peace" approach—was beginning to look like a promise she could not keep.

But in the days following the latest diplomatic advance, Arroyo exuded confidence as she visited the cyclone-ravaged south, claiming the country was "on the threshold of peace."

The new agreement should mean a substantial expansion—pending a vote in the more than 700 affected communities—of the Bangsamoro people’s current autonomous region. There will likely still be bumps along the road before the final peace accord is drawn up but if the thorniest item is indeed out of the way, the prospects for a lasting peace suddenly look a lot brighter.

Now for the bad news.

Bringing calm and stability to the southern Philippines will not be as simple as negotiating a deal with the MILF. The Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF), the main rebel group until internal dissent over objectives and tactics led to the birth of the more militant MILF, signed its own accord with the government back in 1996. The MNLF stands by its deal, saying problems exist at the implementation rather than the conceptual level, and is engaged in ongoing three-party talks with the government and the 56-state Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) to address the lack of progress.

The MNLF has splintered further since the MILF schism and despite a declaration of unity signed by the leaders of the various factions in Libya in May, the government recently complained that rivalries within the MNLF were making it impossible to move forward with the tripartite talks.

Despite repeated pledges of "unity of vision" between the MILF and MNLF, both groups seem attached to their own parallel peace process and appear more interested in having their erstwhile companions jump onboard than in meeting each other halfway.

On the other side, paramilitary and armed civilian groups proliferate. Theoretically loyal to the government, they essentially serve as personal armies and settlers of accounts for local big men. When their targets have ties to a rebel group, the widespread phenomenon of rido or clan feuding often turns into a proxy war or can escalate to the point where rebel and government troops are drawn into direct exchanges.

In addition to the confusing nature of the primary conflict, or perhaps because of it, the southern Philippines has become a hiding place and base of operations for members of radical Islamist groups such as the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and Jemaah Islamiya (JI) whose high-profile bombings and kidnappings served as justification for the U.S. military to launch Operation Enduring Freedom - Philippines.

"Groups like the ASG exist because the Moros don’t trust the Philippine government," according to Herbert Docena, a researcher in the Manila office of Focus on the Global South. "Even people who are not formally members of the ASG will not cooperate with the government against them."

While the ASG’s capabilities have shrunk since the start of the decade, Docena believes another meaningless peace like the one signed with the MNLF in 1996 could be a real boon for them.

With peace talks stalled and frustrations mounting, violations of the 2004 ceasefire were on the rise as the MILF and government accused each other of instigating dozens of violent incidents in May and June alone. The bleak prognosis left the future of the Malaysian-led International Monitoring Team, widely credited with helping to reduce the level of violence, uncertain beyond its mandate expiry next month. And there are growing fears the next generation of MILF leadership will be less open to negotiations.

Still, this latest breakthrough on such a contentious issue has opened a window. The president appears eager to leave a legacy of peace before stepping down and both the rebels and the armed forces seem willing to overlook isolated incidents in favour of the bigger picture.

But two things are absolutely essential if peace is to come at last to the southern Philippines.

First, there needs to be greater accountability. The government must put an end to paramilitary groups so that only the armed forces with their clear chains of command are involved in the conflict. Similarly, it is too easy for the MILF leadership to hide behind the excuse of undisciplined troops or rogue commanders whenever fighting flares. They must take responsibility and whatever measures necessary to impose discipline. MILF leaders recently announced they had done precisely that and pledged the incidents would stop. Yet the violence continues.

Second, declarations and accords have to start meaning something. Last year, the MILF and MNLF promised to come forward with a jointly produced blueprint for peace by September of this year. Even if the timetable changes, they must carry through by drafting a document that will prove the Bangsamoro leadership can move beyond pious rhetoric and present a unified front. Any accord forged without both the MILF and a united MNLF at the same table is likely to be worthless. And the government must be committed to implementing, not just signing, a final peace accord.

"The demands of decency and compassion urge dialogue," Arroyo said in this week’s State of the Nation Address. But what the peace process really needs is honest dialogue. In that respect, there is much room for improvement on both sides.

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