Credit:UN Photo / Eskinder Debebe

Despite all his troubles, the president seems headed for victory.

Mario Canseco - For a brief period, the re-election of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was far from a sure thing. A corruption scandal threatened several high-profile members of the governing Worker's Party (PT) in Brazil, and a series of resignations and accusations had weakened the incumbent.

The problems began last year, when Brazilian Labour Party (PTB) member Roberto Jefferson declared that members of two political organizations—the Liberal Party (PL) and the Progressive Party (PP)—had received monthly payments of up to $12,000 U.S. from the government in exchange for support in the legislative branch.

While Jefferson provided no hard evidence to back his allegations, his statements eventually led to the resignation of some key members of Lula's administration, including chief of staff Jose Dirceu. A year ago, the scandal grew after advertising executive Duda Mendonca—who orchestrated Lula's 2002 presidential campaign—declared to congressional investigators that the PT partly paid for his services with funds from an offshore bank in the Bahamas in violation of electoral regulations.

The mere perception of dishonesty was expected to become a major setback for Lula. Still, the latest voting intention polls conducted in South America's most populous nation indicate that the president is close to earning a victory in the first round of the election on Oct. 1—a feat that eluded him four years ago. The past few weeks have been filled with situations that might have affected Lula, from the public and almost comical endorsement of Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, to his decision to skip the first televised candidates' debate.

Lula's success lies partly on the performance of the opposition. Since late 2004, pollsters placed former Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) presidential candidate Jose Serra as the first choice of Brazil's right for this year's ballot. The PSDB ultimately chose former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin as its nominee. Alckmin criticized Lula's close relationship with other leftist governments in the region, particularly questioning his allegiance to Bolivian president Evo Morales, whose decision to nationalize Bolivia's oil and gas industry has affected Brazilian businesses.

Alckmin had his best showing of the campaign in an early July poll by Vox Populi with 32 per cent. The past month and a half have seen a steady decline in his numbers. This week, he attempted to revamp his campaign with a series of attack ads, which question Lula's commitment to the eradication of corruption.

Anthony Garotinho of the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party (PMDB) emerged in April as a possible rival for Lula, but his campaign never recovered from a couple of embarrassments. After several media outlets questioned whether Garotinho was contravening campaign financing regulations, he complained about unfair treatment and went on a brief hunger strike. The PMDB eventually rejected him, and registered no presidential candidate.

Heloisa Helena is the nominee for the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL). A former PT member, who was expelled from the governing party in December 2003 for voting against Lula's tax reforms and pension proposals, Helena has tried to place herself as the true heir of socialist values in the country. Earlier this month, Helena reached 12 per cent in surveys conducted by Ibope and Datafolha. Support for her candidacy has been stagnant over the past few days.

The remaining candidates have not managed to garner the support of two per cent of respondents lately. Another former PT member, Cristovam Buarque, is the nominee for the Democratic Labour Party (PDT). The other contenders are Luciano Bivar of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), Jose Maria Eymael of the Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC), Ana Maria Rangel of the Republican Progressive Party (PRP) and Rui Costa Pimenta of the Workers Cause Party (PCO).

On Aug. 1, Lula joined the list of South American politicians who believe the only way to enact true political change is through the process of a constituent assembly. Morales easily won the Bolivian election partly because of his promise to revise the country's foremost body of law. In Ecuador, León Roldós—a former vice-president who is the leading candidate for the Oct. 15 ballot—has also hinted at a constitutional review.

What makes Lula's approach different from Morales and Roldós is the fact that he has already worked for three and a half years with a deeply divided National Congress. The PT only secured 91 of the 513 seats in the 2002 ballot, a fact that made alliances inside the Chamber of Deputies absolutely necessary.

After the Brazilian Bar Association (OAB) considered that a constituent assembly is unachievable, unless the country faces an "institutional breakdown", the PT has modified its wording, but not its intentions. Institutional relations minister Tarso Genro declared: "The instrument is secondary, what matters is that political reform is achieved."

With four weeks to go before the election, Lula has managed to stay the course, reject criticism and, oddly enough, was rewarded for not showing up to the debate. If Brazilians decide to bring back Lula with fewer PT members to work with, the process of political reform—which could conceivably begin with a nationwide referendum—will be expedited.

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