Sending troops to Iraq was the first battle. The Japanese prime minister now faces a leadership challenge, and a general election.

Mario Canseco

Last weekend, after months of speculation, surveys and political infighting, the Japanese Diet accepted a government proposal to assist humanitarian efforts in Iraq. A bill authorized the deployment of 1,000 troops from Japan's Self-Defence Forces (SDF).

The decision by prime minister Junichiro Koizumi to push for a broader participation in the Persian Gulf originally stemmed from security questions raised after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, as well as problems in neighbouring North Korea. Koizumi appears to have emerged unscathed from the Iraqi debate. His proposal passed by 34 votes, and the opposition failed in a bid to call a no-confidence motion against him.

The bill states that Japanese troops will participate exclusively in aid and rebuilding operations. This particular restriction was seen as a welcome break for a military force that—aside from minuscule detachments in East Timor and Cambodia—has not been placed in a conflict zone since the end of World War II.

Still, Iraq is far from safe. In the eight weeks since the end of major operations in the Persian Gulf, 108 soldiers have lost their lives. The "non-combat zone" specification carefully inscribed by Japanese lawmakers may not be enough to protect SDF elements.

While many Japanese citizens originally favoured a military presence in Iraq, recent deadly attacks on coalition forces have impacted the public. In June, an Asahi Shinbum poll placed support for SDF deployment at 46 per cent. A month later, backing was down to 33 per cent. In an early-July Manaichi Daily News survey, only 19 per cent of respondents agreed with Koizumi's rationale.

While the prime minister kept the issue on the floor of the Diet, opposition parties concentrated not only on the perils Japanese troops might face, but also on the country's constitution, a pacifist document drafted during the post-war American occupation of the 1940s. The controversial Article 9 literally states "the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes."

Weeks before Saddam Hussein's regime was toppled, a survey indicated the disappointment of many Japanese citizens over the outdated document. 42 per cent of respondents to a Yomiuri poll last March wanted an immediate review of Article 9.

Despite the Diet's approval, it is improbable that SDF troops will be deployed before the prime minister can secure a new term. Koizumi has served since Apr. 26, 2001, a long time judging by the duration of other Japanese governments since 1991. His Liberal-Democratic Party (JMt) has administered the country since 1996.

Before he gets a new term, Koizumi must re-gain his party's presidency on Sept. 20. Other politicians will not make it easy for the prime minister. Veteran Shizuka Kamei, as well as lower house members Takao Fujii and Akihiko Kumashiro will reportedly challenge Koizumi in the internal vote.

If the prime minister gets his party's nod, he will be the candidate to beat in the general election, which could come in November. Koizumi could face a restructured opposition, as other parties have hinted at a possible coalition. Four months from now, the presence of peacekeepers in the Persian Gulf—envisioned by Koizumi as the resurgence of Japan's international influence—might be a reality.

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