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Angus Reid Global Monitor : Politics In Depth
Electoral College and Exit Polls in the United States
The 2004 ballot once again prompts a review of how Americans choose their head of state, and the way firms collect and interpret data on election day.
(Angus Reid Consultants - CPOD Global Scan) Mario Canseco - As George W. Bush begins his second four-year term as president, Americans seem eager to leave the extremely divisive 2004 election behind. In a poll conducted last month by Zogby International for the Center for the Study of the Presidency, 89 per cent of respondents urged their Republican head of state and the Democrats to work together.
The Republican Party elected 232 lawmakers to the House of Representatives on Nov. 2, while the Democratic Party secured 201 seats. The Republicans also have a majority in the Senate, with 55 members in the 100-seat upper house. In a survey by TNS released earlier this month by ABC News and the Washington Post, 69 per cent of respondents suggested the Democrats to find ways to compromise with Bush on some issues. A Princeton Survey Research Associates poll for the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press found that 59 per cent of respondents believe Republicans and Democrats in Washington will bicker and oppose one another more than usual.
Bush's victory left two topics for further analysis—the Electoral College and exit polls. In the United States, the president and vice-president are elected in a single ticket to a four-year term by an Electoral College, whose members represent each state of the union with a previously determined number of electoral votes, in accordance with the results of the popular vote in each state.
After the 2000 election, supporters of the Democratic Party utterly complained about the outdated notion of the Electoral College. In that particular ballot, Democrat Al Gore received 500,000 more votes than Bush, but the Republican won the White House with 271 electoral votes.
In a survey by Harris Interactive conducted before last November's ballot, 64 per cent of respondents supported a constitutional amendment to allow the election of the American head of state by popular vote. Respondents who backed either Bush or Democratic nominee John Kerry in the 2004 election had different views on the subject. While 83 per cent of self-described Kerry voters supported a presidential election by popular vote, only 47 per cent of Bush backers concurred.
On Jan. 5, a speck of controversy surrounded the Electoral College once again. The results of the presidential election were certified during a joint session of Congress. In the final tally, Bush was elected with 286 votes, while Kerry finished second with 251. Kerry's total should have been 252, but an elector from Minnesota cast a vote for Democratic vice-presidential nominee John Edwards in the presidential category.
While the Minnesota elector who chose Edwards was not identified, the vote for the vice-presidential nominee appears to be the product of confusion rather than a bold political statement. In 2000, District of Columbia elector Barbara Lett-Simmons decided to cast a blank ballot to protest D.C.'s lack of representation in the U.S. Congress.
On Jan. 6, California congresswoman Zoe Lofgren announced plans to introduce a resolution to provide for the direct election of the president and vice-president. Fellow Democrat and California senator Dianne Feinstein called the Electoral College an "anachronism" and vowed to "bring our democracy into the 21st Century." A prosperous reform seems unlikely. In the past 100 years, more than 700 similar proposals have been unsuccessfully introduced in the legislative branch.
Many doubts remain on the best way to accurately gauge public opinion on election day. In the latest presidential ballot, an early barrage of exit poll data suggested a victory for Kerry. As the afternoon progressed and actual returns were counted, the mood changed dramatically in the Democratic camp.
This week, Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International—the firms in charge of developing the exit poll system used by most American news organizations—released the findings of an inquiry into their performance. The firms concluded that the discrepancy was caused by human variables, such as pollsters having more success in approaching voters who supported Kerry.
Some preliminary exit poll numbers found their way to the web, causing confusion for voters and analysts alike. In order to prevent early results from being published, the firms have suggested delaying the dissemination of polling data until 6:00 pm Eastern on the next election day.
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