As a nation observes a grim anniversary, the president's performance in the domestic front will be pivotal to revive a dwindling approval rating.

Mario Canseco

It all seems too familiar. One George Bush plus one war in the Persian Gulf equals a one-term presidency. The elder Republican statesman liberated Kuwait, only to succumb to Democrat Bill Clinton in the 1992 election after a grueling campaign marked by the economy.

This time around, the younger Bush is in the middle of a long military operation in two fronts, and as nine Democratic presidential hopefuls assemble for the state primaries, monetary concerns are back in the forefront of public opinion. 51 per cent of respondents to a Washington Post poll conducted last month disapproved of the government's economic policies. 60 per cent of respondents to a CBS News survey rated the country's financial situation as "bad."

The striking difference in the two tenures lies on the day the 43rd Presidency really began, at the moment when chief of staff Andrew Card interrupted George W. Bush's appearance in a Florida elementary school exactly two years ago. After thanking the "folks" at Booker Elementary School, Bush vowed to find those "folks" who had crashed two airplanes into the World Trade Center towers. After that awkward moment, the approval rating for the American president skyrocketed as the country struggled to recover from the unimaginable events.

Two years later, the effect is fading. In this month's Zogby poll, 54 per cent of Americans had a negative view of the president. Such numbers could be dangerous 15 months before the electorate heads to the voting booth again, but the Democratic race has not gathered attention. An unnamed challenger tied Bush with 42 per cent in a recent Rasmussen Reports poll. In the exact same survey, voters chose Bush over former Vermont governor Howard Dean, Massachusetts senator John Kerry and New York senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is not running.

The incumbent president does not have to worry about his rival yet. Dean has emerged as a popular choice, due to his fundraising tactics and bold statements on foreign policy and the California recall election. Missouri congressman Dick Gephardt and Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman have lost support in Iowa and New Hampshire, where the key opening caucuses will be held in early 2004.

Last Sunday, the American president asked congress for $87 billion U.S. to continue military actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. Lawmakers—and the public—will be hard to convince. 48 per cent of respondents to an ABC News survey said the war in Iraq actually heightened the possibility of terrorist actions on American soil.

Even New Yorkers, who suffered the brunt of the attack physically, emotionally and economically are not persudaded by Bush's strategy. 56 per cent of respondents to a Blum and Weprin Associates survey for the New York Daily News opposed the government's tactics on terrorism, and only 20 per cent would actually vote for Bush next year.

The most telling survey to be published in the days leading up to the second anniversary of the hijackings gauged the public's interest in foreign policy. 69 per cent of respondents to the CBS News study said domestic issues will decide their vote in 2004.

Bush re-defined the pre-9/11 era in his Sept. 7 speech to the nation as "false comfort in a dangerous world." One year from now, with a defined Democratic nominee and seven weeks before the election, the current dweller of the White House may have to remind voters about the day his presidency began. The much-demanded economic recovery will be just as important as a positive resolution in Afghanistan and Iraq.

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