With twelve states too close to call—and requiring 270 electoral votes to remain in the White Houset—he Republican leads the Democrat 213-196.

Mario Canseco

Four weeks away from the election, and with two debates to go, the United States presidential race remains closely contested. The eight most recent national voting intention polls provide mixed results for the Republican and Democratic camps.

George W. Bush holds national leads in surveys conducted by Opinion Dynamics/Fox News, ABC News/Washington Post, Zogby International and the Pew Research Center. John Kerry is ahead in studies by Princeton Survey Research Associates/Newsweek and American Research Group. Gallup/CNN/USA Today and CBS/New York Times polls put the race in a dead heat.

The American president and vice-president are designated by an Electoral College, whose members represent each state of the union with a previously determined number of electoral votes, in accordance with the results of the presidential ballot in each state.

Four years ago, Bush garnered 271 electoral votes after winning 30 states, while Democrat Al Gore got 266 electoral votes from 20 states and the District of Columbia. The Democrat's total should have been 267, but an elector decided to cast a blank vote to protest D.C.'s lack of representation in the U.S. Congress. If Bush were to carry the same states he won in 2000, his total in the Electoral College would be 278 this time around, after the values were adjusted to fit the last population census.

Twenty-seven days before Americans head to the polls, Bush's lead seems safe in Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia and Wyoming. The Republican incumbent would receive 213 electoral votes from these 25 states.

Recent polls suggest Kerry would carry California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington. The Democratic challenger would take 196 electoral votes from 13 states and D.C.

This scenario leaves 129 electoral votes in 12 battleground states up for grabs. Surveys in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have not provided an insurmountable advantage to either candidate, and have revealed a volatile electorate.

While Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania have long been regarded as the key prizes, Colorado has become particularly important. On Nov. 2, the Centennial State will vote on Amendment 36—a special ballot initiative to proportionately split the state's nine electoral votes. If the proposal passes, a hypothetical 51-49 victory for Bush in Colorado would give the Republican five electoral votes, with the other four going to Kerry.

Maine—and heavily Republican Nebraska—award electoral votes for both the presidential victor in each congressional district, and for winning the statewide popular vote. No Republican has taken electoral votes from the Pine Tree State since George H. Bush in 1988, but a split is possible this year.

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